Trump is losing ground on one of his signature issues
During my elections in 2024 autopsyI wrote on the skillful use by President Donald Trump of “security” as a means of obtaining support. He played people’s fears, promising protection against real and imagined dangers. These are the pillars of his campaign:
Physical security: Crime is out of control (this is not the case). Look at San Francisco de Kamala! Immigrants want to assassinate you!
Economic security: Inflation, prices of the grocery store, housing – he promised lower costs “the first day”.
Cultural security: Pronouns, drag queens, white dispossession, “toxic masculinity”.
When people feel dangerous, as they really did In my native SalvadorThey will gladly abandon civil freedoms and adopt a dictator for a feeling of security. This is why the democratic message fell so flat in 2024.
We warned against fascism. Voters have shrugged and said, “Of course, but if it can lower prices on the first day …” It is difficult to worry about the next elections if you cannot feed your family.
Trump leaned strongly on this security framework. He launched mass deportations undocumented immigrants under the guise of physical security (murderers and rapists), economic security (Steal American jobs) and cultural security (not speaking English). He sent the National Guard to big cities to “repair crime”. He attacked companies with Dei programs, even forcing brand changes like Barrel of cracker, To appease the white fears of the “medal”. In short, he delivered what his voters wanted.
Which makes the latest Washington Post / Ipsos survey Striking: 54% of respondents disapproved of the treatment of crime by Trump, with only 44%. This is the first time that Ipsos poses this question, so there is no trend lines, but it signals a weakness on the question of Trump’s signature.
However, the Republicans maintain a global advantage: voters trust them on the crime of 44 to 22% compared to the Democrats, with a third saying “neither”. The years of “awakened” district prosecutors have damaged the reputation of the Democrats. Liberal voters themselves ousted San Francisco,, County of AlamedaAnd Los AngelesBut the damage was caused.
Experience failed and the Republicans managed to mark Democrats as sweet on crime.
The trend lines are brutal. In 2021-2022, around a A third of the voters have trusted Democrats more On the crime. In the late 1990s, Democrats were even competitive with the Republicans, with Trust numbers In the 1930s and bass and bass. The 22% today is catastrophic. It is difficult to gain elections when the electorate does not trust you to keep them safe.
But here is the fascinating part: Trump fails on the very question that defines it. The more the voters realize that the Republicans have no real answers to their problems, the more space democrats must recover credibility on crime and security.
