Trump isn’t killing the bull market. Here’s why


More and more business leaders and Wall Street strategists express their concerns about the protectionist policies of President Donald Trump and unpredictable nature could do markets and economics.
But we all know that action speaks stronger than words. What really is in contrast to what people say. Friday, the DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to reach peaks of all time.
And the Russell 2000, an index of small businesses that tend to do most of their business in the United States, is now a few points from the summit of all time it has reached last December following the euphoria of the Trump market.
In addition, the Vix (Vix))A volatility measure known as a gauge for fear of Wall Street, is also down almost 25% this year. If investors were really afraid of Trump, the meeting should be much higher.
And the Fear & Greed index of CNNMONEY, which examines the VIX and six other measures of the feeling of investors, shows signs of greed and is not far from the levels of extreme greed.
Of course, Trump cannot still seem to help tweeting on things that, let’s be honest, will do nothing to help the economy – although nordstrom investors are richer despite Trump’s attacks for pouring the brand of his daughter Ivanka.
But to give a credit where it is due, it seems that the main reason why the actions have taken off recently, it is because Trump promised to reveal a “phenomenal” tax plan soon.
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Trump also undertook to invest more in infrastructure when he met CEO of airlines on Thursday.
This is what the market wants to hear.
“We are still expecting a budget recovery, lower taxes and less regulation,” said Matt Lockridge, director of the Westwood Small Cap Value Fund. “Timing is the big question, but it happens.”
Lockridge thinks that many companies that generate most of their America’s revenues should benefit if the Trump stimulus ends up kicking the economy in a higher speed.
He likes actions in a variety of industries, such as the cinema owner Masco (Mas))snack J & J (Jjsf)) and Aerospace Equipment Company Kaman (Kamn)).
Another money official said that he was also optimistic about small American actions that could obtain an elevator of Trump policies.
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Barry James, President and CEO of James Investment Research, said he had bought the ETF Ishares Russell 2000 (IWM)) The day after the elections, because it is confident the Trump stimulation plan will increase growth for us small businesses.
“When Trump said America first, I really think that is what he means,” said James, adding that he was thinking that internet telephone service Vonage (VG))rent detail Aaron (Aan)) and reduction chain Lots (BIG)) could prosper everything if Trump’s proposals were going.
But there is another reason why the American markets are close to all time. Despite all the uncertainty in Washington, the United States is still considered a paragon of relative stability compared to other parts of the world.
The European economy is always a big joker thanks to Brexit, the rise of populism in France leading to concerns for a so -called Frexit and more concerns of the problem which never seems to disappear – the debt problems of Greece.
Japan’s economy is also stagnant. We are talking more than just lost decade now. It’s plural. And the Chinese economy also slows down.
The director of bond funds, Bill Gross, often joked that America is like what Johnny Cash and Kris Kristofferson sang in “Sunday Morning Down” – the “cleanest dirty shirt”.
To this end, analysts of the Fitch obligations’ rating company wrote in a report on Friday that “the elements of President Trump’s economic agenda would be positive for growth”, but added that “the current risk balance indicates a less benign world result”.
Of course, there are two sides at this room. Trump’s bomb could come back to haunt him.
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His continuous penchant for reprimand companies with whom he does not agree on Twitter could lower the confidence of investors.
And although his travel ban on immigrants from seven mainly Muslim countries has been canceled by the American justice system for the moment, the president has promised to fight for his reinstatement.
Even if he loses this battle, it is always clear that Trump is serious by turning more inward, with plans of prices and taxes adjusted to the borders which could ignite trade wars with Mexico, China and Japan. This could harm large American multinational companies and cause job cuts.
But investors always seem to believe / hope that the merits of Trump’s pro-growth rapping plans and tax reductions will prevail over the impact of isolationism. Hopefully they are right.
Investors can hold their noses, close their eyes and stuff cotton in their ears to drown the president. But they always buy actions.
CNNMONEY (New York) First publication on February 10, 2017: 11:55 a.m.