Trump said he ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear program. Now he says the U.S. may have to bomb Iran again.
President Donald Trump said Iran’s nuclear program had been “annihilated” last summer, but now says the United States may have to bomb Iran again because of its nuclear ambitions.
As U.S. forces mass in the region, he and his administration have offered various assessments of Iran’s military capabilities and intentions. On Tuesday evening, after much zigzagging, Trump exposed what he called the Islamic Republic’s “sinister nuclear ambitions.”
These and other threats against the United States were quickly dismissed by Tehran as “a series of big lies.”
Trump’s remarks in his State of the Union address follow weeks of mixed messages from Washington on the reasons for the U.S. military buildup in the region and the urgency of the Iranian nuclear threat. The Trump administration is simultaneously pursuing diplomacy, which will see the two sides meet on Thursday for a new round of negotiations.
Iran denies wanting to develop a nuclear weapon, saying its nuclear program is peaceful and intended for energy production, and has warned of significant retaliation even in the event of a limited attack from the United States or Israel.
What Trump said
Trump initially threatened to intervene in Iran’s deadly crackdown on domestic unrest last month, but in recent weeks his public threats have focused on the country’s nuclear program.
U.S. officials recently suggested that despite last summer’s attack, Iran was in fact very close to having the capability to produce nuclear weapons.
Operation Midnight Hammer was a success, Trump said near the end of his speech, but he added that although he had been “warned not to make any future attempts to rebuild” its nuclear weapons program, Tehran had “started all over again.”
An initial U.S. assessment after the June operation found that only one nuclear enrichment site had been largely destroyed, while the other two targeted sites were likely degraded, delaying progress by several months.
Trump also said in his Tuesday speech that although Iran had expressed a desire to reach a deal during negotiations, “we did not hear those secret words, ‘We will never have nuclear weapons.’
He said his “preference is to resolve this problem through diplomacy,” but vowed to never “allow the world’s number one sponsor of terrorism, which it is by far, to have nuclear weapons.”
He also explained why this might be so urgent.
“They have already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our overseas bases, and they are working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” Trump said.
Iran condemned Trump’s comments as “lies”, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei drawing a comparison with Nazi propaganda.
“Repeat a lie often enough and it will become the truth. It’s a law of propaganda invented by Nazi Joseph Goebbels,” Baghaei said, referring to the infamous Nazi propaganda chief. “This is now being systematically used by the US administration and the war profiteers around it.”
Iran is developing launchers that would allow intercontinental ballistic missiles to strike the United States, according to a recent report from the Defense Department’s Defense Intelligence Agency.
Iran could have 60 ICBMs capable of reaching all regions of the US territory by 2035, the DIA said, although adding that this would only be the case “if Tehran decides to pursue this capability.”
It was unclear whether Trump’s comments Tuesday reflected the U.S. government’s recognition that Iran had in fact decided to develop the capability, or whether it could now do so more quickly than expected.
The CIA declined to comment on the matter.
Iran’s nuclear capability
Iran has always maintained that it does not possess nuclear weapons. ambitions.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated this position on Tuesday, saying Iran would “under no circumstances develop a nuclear weapon.” At the same time, he said the country would not give up its “right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people.”
Trump withdrew the United States from a historic Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 during his first term, three years after Tehran agreed to stop developing an arsenal of nuclear weapons and allow international controls on its facilities in exchange for the United States and other countries rolling back sanctions.
Before the attack on the United States and Israel last year, Iran had developed a stockpile of uranium enriched to a purity level close to the level needed to build a bomb, already well beyond the level needed for civilian energy production.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, warned in 2024 that Tehran would “significantly” accelerate its enrichment of uranium to 60% purity, moving closer to the weapons-grade level of around 90%.
Grossi said the program had been badly damaged by the US and Israeli strikes, but that much of the regime’s highly enriched uranium had probably been transported before attacks.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Saturday that Iran could be within a week of having “industrial-grade material to make bombs”, saying its enrichment level was “up to 60%”.
Tehran said it considered the claims a “verbal error.”
Having highly enriched uranium does not mean having a weapon, said Darya Dolzikova, a senior fellow at the Proliferation and Nuclear Policy program at the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, a London-based think tank.
It’s just one step in a complex chain, she said in a telephone interview Tuesday. “Ninety percent enrichment is not enough. You have to actually build the nuclear warhead. You have to put it on the launch system,” she added.
Although Iran was a week away from having “industrial-grade material to make bombs,” Dolzikova noted that military actions and “counter-proliferation strikes” are not always decisive responses, pointing to the June strikes.
Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said there appeared to be “little, if any, indication” of testing and development in Iran of a missile capable of targeting the United States. “If Iran intends to do it, I think it will be years away,” she added.
This raises questions about American objectives in this standoff.
Is Trump using the threat of military action to force Iran into more progressive concessions on its nuclear program? His State of the Union address hinted at a broader desire to limit Iran’s offensive capabilities, as Israel has pushed. But the fall of the regime and the removal of the country’s leaders could represent an even more maximalist – and unpredictable – goal.
The brinkmanship comes at a time when “Iran is weakened”, with its “domestic legitimacy, economy in ruins” and “air defenses shattered” by US and Israeli strikes last year, said Burcu Ozcelik, senior fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute.
“There is clearly a sense in Washington and also, I think, reinforced by Jerusalem, that Iran is at its weakest point in decades,” said Ross Harrison, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of “Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy.”
“And therefore, this is the time to push it towards some sort of collapse or erosion of the regime.” »
