USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths over the next five years, researchers say

More than 14 million people could die over the next five years due to dismantling by the Trump Administration of the American Agency for International Development, according to a analysis published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet.

The researchers calculated the benefits of the financing of the USAID over a period of 21 years, then used the data to determine how many lives would be lost without funding from the USAID in the future.

The analysis revealed that, from 2001 to 2021, programs funded by USAID prevented nearly 92 million deaths in 133 countries, including more than 25 million deaths by HIV / AIDS, around 11 million diarrheal diseases, 8 million malaria and nearly 5 million tuberculosis.

The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced in March that he canceled 83% of the USAID programs, which, according to him, did not serve “the main national interests of the United States” and added that the State Department would absorb around 1,000 remaining programs.

The action has led to many humanitarian efforts abroad, which led to the closure of food kitchens and health clinics in poorly served countries and in some cases delaying or stopping the distribution of rescue drugs, bed nets to keep dirty water away, nutritional packets for hungry children and chlorine tablets to disinfect dirty water.

The analysis, carried out by a team of international researchers from Spain, Brazil, Mozambique and the United States, estimated the impact of the 83% of funding discounts, assuming that they remain until 2030. Of the more than 14 million planned deaths, around 4.5 million are one of children under 5, according to the authors.

“The figures are striking, but we are not the only group to have done this type of analysis,” said Davide Rasella, research teacher at Barcelona Institute for Global Health, who coordinated the study. Other research groups, he said, “have found similar amplitudes-millions and millions of deaths that will be caused by the financing of the USAID.”

A model of a researcher from the University of Boston estimated that financing reductions for assistance and support organizations in the United States cause 88 deaths per hour.

Before it was emptied, USAID was a key partner in efforts abroad to reduce poverty and disease. It also supported the economic growth of low and intermediate income countries with the capacity to negotiate with the United States. The agency managed more than $ 35 billion last year, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Rubio said in March that “agency gains were too few and that the costs were too high”, although he promised to keep “essential rescue programs”. A trial brought in February on behalf of government employees and external service employees calls into question the financing reductions in court, but the result remains uncertain.

The State Department did not respond to a request for comments.

An investigation by the New York Times revealed that on May 7, more than half of the remaining programs in the USAID were devoted to crisis repair – assistance for people affected by disasters and conflicts. Some malaria, tuberculosis and HIV programs also remain.

Amira Albert Roess, professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University, said that the way in which funding was interrupted is partly responsible for the high number of deaths planned.

“For the better or for the worst, some of the clinics financed by USAID in certain areas, they were the main source of care,” she said. “If you wanted to reduce the financing of the USAID, it could have been done more gradually, instead of this sudden clasp – and really, in many places, overnight – clinics.”

The steep closures of HIV clinics, for example, meant that some people could not fill their medicines, which can be fatal.

“If you miss a dose or multiple doses, as was the case with many individuals, this creates a situation where the individual can start deteriorating fairly quickly,” said Roess.

Rasella said that financing reductions also have a training effect in European countries, which have also reduced their humanitarian aid budgets. “We are in crisis now,” he said.

The United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs Coordination said this month that it saw “the deepest funding reductions for reaching the international humanitarian sector”.