The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Tennessee special election results

Observations on Republican Matt Van Epps’ victory over Democratic rival Aftyn Behn in Tuesday’s special election to represent Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District:

It is difficult to trade seats in special elections for seats in the House.

The party contesting the seat sometimes makes it a race. This often signals weakness in the ruling party or even the president as the next election approaches.

Democrats came close in several special elections in 2017, but won none. There have actually only been four major “flips” in special elections to the House of Representatives in the last 18 years.

Trump-backed Republican keeps crucial congressional seat in GOP hands with special election victory

Republican Matt Van Epps (left) claimed victory over Democratic rival Aftyn Behn (right) in the hotly contested race for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images (left); George Walker IV/AP Photo (right))

Should Democrats have presented themselves as moderates? Behn was progressive. A centrist might have won a district like this if Abigail Spanberger had won the Virginia gubernatorial race.

Van Epps’ victory could encourage other Republicans to resign.

The majority in the House will be 220-214, but some Republicans are eager to leave. They may think there’s enough cushion, even if Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves in January.

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Moderate Republicans could look at this race and insist that the party take care of health care, considering a competitive race as in a district with a plus-20 favoring the GOP.

Moderate Republicans in California, New York and elsewhere should be concerned in the midterms given the strength of Democrats in this race.

Democrats flipped the House in 2018 after coming close in several special elections.

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Van Epps’ victory underscores the fact that gerrymandering/redistricting works.

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps delivers a victory speech after winning a special congressional election in Tennessee’s 7th District, December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

A few years ago, Tennessee Republicans ran former Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper and every other Democrat out of a Nashville-area district.

The GOP split Nashville and its suburbs, diluting the Democratic vote in several GOP districts, which helped the GOP win Tuesday night.

Chad Pergram is currently the chief congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC.