Fears of an all-out Israeli invasion mount in Lebanon
Katz warned Monday that hundreds of thousands of people who have evacuated their homes south of the Litani River will not be able to return until the “safety of residents” in northern Israel is “guaranteed.”
This has raised fears about how long a wider ground offensive – or possible occupation of the area – will last.
“It’s going to get bigger,” said Kobi Michael, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. who was previously deputy director general and head of the Palestinian office at the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs.
“Wider and wider because we have to clear the whole strip between the border and the Litani River,” said Michael, who is also a member of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
Fears of a long-term occupation have increased amid strong calls from some for Israel to take permanent control of the area south of the Litani River, citing the security benefits this would offer Israel.
A Jerusalem Post editorial last week quoted David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, identifying the river as a natural border to the Jewish state’s north.
As Israeli troops move from village to village and a larger operation looms, many people in Lebanon have expressed frustration with Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government has pledged in 2024 to disarm the militant group as part of a U.N.-brokered effort to end fighting with Israel.
Since then, little progress has been made in disarming the Iran-backed group, although the Lebanese government decided earlier this month to ban its military activities, seeking to show it had no desire to continue the conflict.
In a joint statement Monday, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom called for “meaningful engagement” between Israel and Lebanon to work toward a political solution, while expressing serious concerns over the escalation of violence.
Bilal Y. Saab, managing director of the Washington-based TRENDS US advisory group who worked as a senior adviser at the Pentagon during the first Trump administration, said he believed Israel was “trying to apply as much pressure as possible on the Lebanese government and of course Hezbollah, to negotiate.” [and] disarm” the Iranian proxy.
“If that doesn’t work, then they’ll consider mounting a full-scale ground invasion,” said Saab, also a research associate at Chatham House. Middle East and North Africa Program.
However, the country has already been swept by scenes of despair and displacement that have been overshadowed by events in Iran and the Gulf.
Cyril Bassil, Lebanon communications coordinator for humanitarian agency CARE, said pregnant women were sleeping on the sidewalk and others on the beach or in parking lots.
Al Omar said she was determined to return to her home in Dahieh, or at least to what remains of it.
“Our homes were destroyed,” she said.
But “the south is our south,” she added.
“No matter what, this is our home.”
Raf Sanchez and Mo Abbas reported from Beirut, and Chantal Da Silva from London.
