Icebreakers and golf forge Trump and Finnish leader’s unlikely friendship

It didn’t take any small talk to break the ice between these two leaders who had become unlikely friends.

Instead, it was actual icebreakers – hulking 9,000-ton ships – that sealed a deal between Donald Trump and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, cementing their growing business and personal relationship.

Trump smiled during their meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday, leaning slightly and nodding in agreement with the man who has become, for many, an unlikely spokesperson for Europe.

Finnish Alexander Stubb is a leader who, despite the relatively small size of his country, has the ear of the American president more than anyone else.

“We’ve been friends for a long time,” Trump remarked as they sat across from each other under a painting of the young George Washington.

For the next hour, the two men discussed a wide range of topics, but primarily the purchase of 11 icebreakers.

It’s a difficult-to-build Finnish nautical specialty that the country uses to enter frozen ports in Scandinavia’s harsh winters, and one that Trump has long had his eyes on.

Four of them will be built in the United States using Finnish know-how, which Stubb said “means investment, jobs and hope” – something a grateful Trump said was necessary given Finland’s proximity to Russia and what he called a “ridiculous” war in Ukraine.

More than any other aspect of bilateral relations between the United States and Finland, the war in Ukraine has propelled the relationship between Stubb and Trump into international headlines.

Among many war observers, Stubb is seen as one of the NATO leaders most likely to influence Trump in favor of the European stance on Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.

“I see Finland’s outsized influence in Washington as a direct result of Stubb’s close personal relationship with Trump,” said Jason Moyer, an expert on transatlantic relations at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

“Finland and Stubb’s pragmatism, knowledge of Russia, consistent support for Ukraine, and possessing specialized technological know-how in its icebreaker ecosystem give Finland a larger than expected, and certainly well-deserved, role in the transatlantic relationship.” he added.

At first glance, the two men couldn’t seem more different.

While Trump formally became involved in politics late in life after a long career in real estate, his younger Finnish counterpart began his own career with more academic pursuits.

He was a researcher at the Finnish representation to the European Union, before holding various positions until becoming a Member of the European Parliament in 2004, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prime Minister and – last year – President of his country.

Stubb’s role, described by some media as a “Trump whisperer”, has not gone unnoticed in other European capitals.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked him in July for “helping to establish a connection” with Trump as the war in Ukraine continued to rage.

The following month, at the White House, Stubb sat alongside Zelensky — and directly across from Trump — at a summit bringing together the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the European Commission and the EU.

“Finland is a country of 5.5 million people,” Mr Moyer said. “This shows how interested Trump is [in Finland] and shows how much influence the Finns have.”

The two have a warm relationship and text or call each other often, sometimes on a weekly basis, according to two sources familiar with the conversations.

According to Stubb, one of those calls took place the day before Thursday’s Oval Office meeting.

“The White House has learned that if the phone is in Do Not Disturb mode, if you ring three times it lets you through,” Stubb told reporters.

It was Trump on the line, telling him he wanted new icebreakers.

Although these conversations are often focused on politics, sometimes they are simply friendly discussions around a common passion: golf.

It’s Trump’s favorite pastime and a sport for which Stubb once represented Finland as a member of its national team.

“Golf really matters,” said Brent Nelsen, Stubb’s former professor at Furman University in South Carolina, where the Finnish president studied on a golf scholarship in the late 1980s and early 1990s. “He’s a very, very good golfer.”

The importance of Stubb and Trump’s shared interest was underlined in March, when Stubb made a surprise appearance at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to play with the US president, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and famed South African golfer Gary Player.

Immediately, Trump was seduced by the Finn’s abilities.

On Truth Social, Trump wrote that he was “a very good player” and that the two had won a member-guest tournament together.

“Trump loved it. Alex [Stubb] said he had a very good ride,” said Mr Nelson, who has remained in close contact with his former student and now friend, with whom he wrote a textbook on the EU.

“Trump is always impressed by superior talent. Someone who has a gift that really sets him apart.”

Over 18 holes on the sunny golf course, the two men discussed a wide variety of topics, from icebreakers to Ukraine. This time together, Stubb later recalled, allowed the two men to get a feel for each other.

“You discover the personality of a human being from the first hole of a golf course,” he told Bloomberg. “You see if they’re nervous, if they’re impatient, if they’re fun, if they’re relaxed. I have to say I didn’t have any uncomfortable moments during this round.”

Over lunch, Trump asked the Finn if he could trust Putin, a man with whom Trump has repeatedly said he has a “great relationship.”

“You can’t,” Stubb responded, he told Bloomberg.

Within hours, Trump told NBC he was “pissed off” and “very angry” with Putin — his harshest and most pointed criticism of the Russian leader to this point in Trump’s second term.

Mr. Nelsen said the conversation clearly convinced the president.

“Alex spent seven hours with him in that golf cart,” he said. “That had some impact on what Trump was thinking.”

The latest meeting between Trump and Stubb in the Oval Office took place just one day after Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel.

“No one in history has solved eight wars in nine months, and I stopped eight wars,” Trump said during the meeting.

“I did it because I saved a lot of lives, and that’s what bothers me so much about the Russia-Ukraine deal.”

Stubb sat in silence as he spoke, and a few minutes later the reporters were kicked out of the room.

But behind closed doors and away from the cameras, Stubb said he and Trump discussed the war again and that the Finn relayed messages from Zelensky, although he did not provide details.

It seems that a more detailed discussion on Ukraine will have to wait.

And no golf on this trip.