UFC bantamweights are front and center. The four highest-ranked bantamweights all recently competed in major fights. On Saturday, Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira step into the spotlight.
People are starting to wake up to the skill of Bautista (16-3). The Arizona native had won eight fights in a row since 2022 before getting a step up opportunity against top contender Umar Nurmagomedov. While he was swept on the scorecards, Bautista put up a strong effort in defeat. Bautista stunned Nurmagomedov with a knee and nearly yanked his foot off with a toehold. His strong showing, plus a dominant win over former Bellator bantamweight champion Patchy Mix, helped mend fan feelings after his contentious win over the great Jose Aldo.
“I thought I blew the [Nurmagomedov] fight. That’s the mindset I had,” Bautista told CBS Sports. “Being around people saying, ‘That was an awesome fight. You actually went out there and fought him. You didn’t hold anything back.’ I’m glad people saw that from me. I think that’s what landed me this main event.”
On Saturday, Bautista can utilize his wealth of experience against a fighter with a rapidly rising profile.
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“His hand placements,” Bautista said of Oliveira’s technical gaps. “Outside of the UFC, I saw three separate videos of him getting knocked out. He lives and dies by the sword. I think there’s a higher possibility for that to happen the higher you climb up the UFC rankings.
Oliveira (23-3) is a madman. He marches forward with his hands down and strikes from odd angles. Oliveira is already calling out elite stars like Nurmagomedov, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili only four fights into his UFC career. “Lok Dog” won’t be far from those conversations if he makes good on his first-round knockout prediction.
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“No one in the top five wants to fight me. They’re all close to fighting for the belt. If UFC asked them to fight ‘Lok Dog,’ they’d say no…” Oliveira told CBS Sports. “They don’t want to fight me because they have many things to lose.
“I’m dangerous in this division. When you see me fight, you can see I’m crazy. I move forward with my hands down. I dodge stuff and throw punches from nowhere. I’m not technical or orthodox. It’s strange to fight me. If I were someone in front of me, I’d run away. I wouldn’t want to face me.”
Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
|
Mario Bautista -170 |
Vinicius Oliveira +142 |
Bantamweight |
|
Kyoji Horiguchi -375 |
Amir Albazi +295 |
Flyweight |
|
Jailton Almeida -155 |
Rizvan Kuniev +130 |
Heavyweight |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk -500 | Marc-Andre Barriault +380 | Middleweight |
| Farid Basharat -285 | Jean Matsumoto +230 | Bantamweight |
| Dustin Jacoby -185 | Julius Walker +154 | Light heavyweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: Saturday, Feb. 7 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Meta APEX — Las Vegas
Stream: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as little as $8.99 per month)
Prediction
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira: Oliveira doesn’t seem concerned with Bautista, technique, or much else. You can chalk up his swagger to some combination of confidence and stubbornness. Oliveira was a vicious KO artist on the regional scene. Things haven’t come so easily for him in the UFC. He might not like that, but I do. Oliveira showed that his skills hold up over 15 minutes.
Saturday’s headliners are surprisingly similar considering their contrasting personalities and game plans. They have comparable striking offense and defense stats, though Oliveira sees less artillery coming his way. They’re also difficult to ground. I’m torn here. Bautista’s performance against Nurmagomedov opened my eyes to how good he is. I don’t think he’ll finish Oliveira, and that creates concerns about a potential KO loss over 25 minutes. However, Oliveira’s inexperience against elite fighters and failure to finish his last three opponents are more concerning. I’ll side with the veteran over five rounds. Pick: Bautista via unanimous decision
Who wins Bautista vs. Oliveira, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.
