Republicans on path to double-digit lead in redistricting fight

Partisan gerrymandering, once a dominant tool for Democrats, has shifted in favor of Republicans as redistricting battles ahead of the midterm elections reach a fever pitch.

The Virginia Supreme Court’s explosive decision Friday, which overturned the state’s redistricting referendum, dealt a blow to the Democratic Party’s hopes of winning four additional seats in the House of Representatives.

The Virginia court issued its 4-3 decision as Republicans made gains in nine other states amid a nationwide partisan fight over redistricting that gave Republicans the edge.

The latest victories in red states are in Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee, where Republican-led legislatures are forcing last-minute changes to congressional districts that could create new Republican-leaning districts.

The Florida Legislature last month approved a congressional map that created four additional Republican-leaning districts, adding to five new Republican-carved districts in Texas and one new Republican-leaning seat each in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

In total, Republicans are preparing to create up to 17 additional districts that could elect Republican candidates to the House of Representatives.

Democratic-led redistricting added only six congressional districts, five in California and one in Utah, that favor their party’s candidates.

“Republicans appear to have emerged clear winners from the smoke and burn of the redistricting fight,” said analysts at election forecasting firm Quantus Insights.

After the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling and other redistricting in red states, election ratings company Inside Elections shifted 12 House elections, 11 of them favoring Republicans.

Republicans are not guaranteed to keep control of the House next year.

The current map of congressional districts leaves up to 16 seats to be filled across the country, in addition to other, less competitive districts, which could tip the majority to either party in the midterm elections.

Republicans now control the House by a razor-thin margin and are battling growing public disapproval of their control of Congress and the White House.

Despite discouraging poll numbers, some analysts say the redistricting fight has provided Republicans with a defensive perimeter. Quantus Insights noted that, at a minimum, the party remains in a “statistical battle” to maintain control of the House.

Republicans were energized by Virginia’s decision.

“This victory is another sign that Republicans have momentum heading into November. We are on offense and we are going to win,” said Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Democrats are not giving up the fight for redistricting. Virginia Democrats filed a petition Friday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to delay implementation of the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling. The two-page motion, filed by Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott, misspelled “Virginia” and “Senator.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, said national Democrats were exploring ways to block the decision.

“We are exploring all options to reverse this shocking decision,” Mr Jeffries said. “No matter what it takes, House Democrats will win in November. … Our fight is not over. We are just beginning.”

Mr. Jeffries, who would likely become president if Democrats took control of the House of Representatives, led the bulk of the financing of the hugely expensive campaign for Virginia’s redistricting referendum. House Majority Forward, a nonprofit organization tied to House Democratic leadership, invested nearly $40 million in the race, helping the proposed map narrowly pass in the April 21 referendum.

The Virginia Supreme Court rejected the map after hearing from opponents who said the Democratic-led Virginia General Assembly violated the state constitution by calling a special session to redraw the map without holding an interim election as was required.

Skipping the required process, the court majority ruled, “irreparably compromises the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void.”

Republicans have launched redistricting battles after decades of Democratic redistricting in California, New York and the New England states, as well as other states.

The aggressive recasting to benefit their party left Democrats with little room for further truncated gains. New England, for example, does not have a single Republican-leaning congressional district.

Still, Democrats complained that the Republicans’ redistricting campaign was unfair because voters did not directly approve it.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who led the 2025 special election campaign that won five new Democratic-leaning congressional seats in his state, bitterly posted on social media that the Virginia court ruling threw out a voter-approved map, while none of the new maps favored by Republicans had been decided by a similar referendum.

“MAGA rigged the system,” said Mr. Newsom, who is widely seen as a likely Democratic presidential candidate in 2028.