Updated contract projections for top four free agent hitters

The free-hitting market was shaken up last week during the winter meetings when 32-year-old designated hitter Kyle Schwarber agreed to a five-year, $150 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, followed by 31-year-old first baseman Pete Alonso getting a five-year, $155 million contract from the Baltimore Orioles a day later.

Schwarber and Alonso ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, in ESPN’s rankings of the top 50 free agents heading into winter, and both contracts show the value of top one-dimensional players this offseason as teams invested in them for one main reason: their bats.

Neither slugger poses a major threat on the bases — even though Schwarber stole a career-high 10 bases last year. Defensively, Schwarber rarely plays in the outfield and Alonso ranked just 18th among first basemen in defensive runs saved and putouts above average last season. Still, both players have agreed to long-term deals that will pay them $30 million a year well into their 30s.

Since signing, there has been a momentary lull at the top of the free agent market for hitters — in part because some agents might be rethinking their strategies and wondering what these deals mean for some of the most complete players available this winter.

Four players in particular – infielder Bo Bichette, third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman and outfielder Cody Bellinger and outfielder Kyle Tucker – stand to benefit from how last week’s deals could reset the market.

“It’s the first thing I do if I’m in the room,” an agent not associated with any of the above players said via text message. “Reminding everyone how old these guys are and what my player can do that they can’t do.”

All four hitters could also hit hard this winter, as next year’s free agent hitting class isn’t expected to be strong. Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs, George Springer of the Blue Jays and Taylor Ward of the Orioles will likely be the best of the group.

With that in mind, let’s take another look at the remaining big four, using fWAR (the FanGraphs version of WAR) as the central metric to compare positions. (Schwarber compiled a 4.9 fWAR last season, while Alonso came in at 3.6). We asked for help from a front office executive who wasn’t interested in drafting any of the players in this exercise, and included updated projections from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel based on how the offseason has gone so far.

Bo Bichette

FA ranking: n°7

Bichette will be 28 on Opening Day, making him the youngest in this group, but he was limited to 139 games in 2025, missing time with a knee injury in September. He finished the season with 3.8 fWAR and missed the first two rounds of the playoffs before returning for the World Series.

Bichette is one of the best contact hitters in the sport, but he’s also valuable because he plays in the middle of the diamond even if he doesn’t finish his career as a shortstop.

“Her only the blow is the injuries,” said the leader.

Bichette hasn’t played more than 135 games in a season since 2022, but still finished 16th in American League MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. The most recent roster for his free agency could be San Francisco Giants shortstop Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year, $182 million contract last offseason.

Adames produced a 4.8 fWAR for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2024 and played in 161 games that season, helping to close that gap in fWAR, before becoming a free agent. Only once in his career (when he only played in 81 games in 2024) has Bichette posted an OPS+ below 121 while Adames has not exceeded an OPS+ of 119 since 2021.

Bichette is also a few years younger than Adames, putting him further in age with Carlos Correa, who signed a six-year, $200 million contract after a 4.6 fWAR season with Minnesota in 2022.

McDaniel’s original screening: Five years, $130 million

McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $150 million (assuming a long-term deal rather than a shorter-term opt-out deal)

Alex Bregman

FA ranking: n°4

Also limited due to injury in 2025, Bregman has only played in 114 games but has played in at least 155 games five times in his career. Before his fWAR dropped to 3.5 last season, he had posted at least 4.0 WAR in each of the previous three seasons. He’s also just a year away from winning a Gold Glove at third base. Bregman was on base more than 35% of the time each year during the second half of his career, while striking out more than 90 times just once – in 2017.

But as the oldest of the group (he turns 32 in March), he won’t be in contention for a decade-long contract with whichever team signs him.

“His sense of work is underestimated,” said the manager. “Look at his walk-to-strikeout totals. That should age well.”

The seven-year, $175 million contract Marcus Semien signed at the start of his age-31 season is a good place to start when looking at rosters. Bregman may not get the same tenure as Semien, but Bregman’s annual salary should easily exceed the $25 million per year that Semien receives.

McDaniel’s original screening: Five years, $160 million

McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $170 million (or six years to reduce the AAV)

Cody Bellinger

FA ranking: No. 3

Bellinger is the only one of the four to play a full season in 2025, playing 152 games for the Yankees, his highest total since 2018. After a 4.9 fWAR season, he’s ready to cash in.

“It’s perfect for him in New York,” our executive said. “Everyone thought he would hit a lot of home runs there, and he did.”

Bellinger’s ability to play first base as well as the outfield — and at a high level wherever he plays — adds value to his resume that Schwarber, Alonso and the others lack.

Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year, $162 million contract is a good starting point for Bellinger as an outfielder. Nimmo signed him ahead of the 2023 season after producing a 5.5 fWAR season.

McDaniel’s original screening: Six years, $165 million

McDaniel’s updated projection: Six years, $180 million

Kyle Tucker

FA ranking: No. 1

Widely considered the best player in the class this winter, Tucker has also dealt with injuries the past two seasons, but they have been considered random (a fractured tibia in 2024 and a fractured thumb last season).

He compiled 4.5 fWAR despite his thumb injury last season and 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games the year before. His performance in 2024 would span nearly 10 WAR if he had been healthy.

“It goes without saying that when healthy, Tucker is one of the best hitters in the league,” the executive said. “Pair him with other good hitters like he did in Houston, and he’s even better.”

While they are different types of players, comparing Tucker’s free agency to Juan Soto’s free agency last year isn’t outrageous because of the hitters’ ability to walk and not strike out. Tucker committed to playing on better fields a few years ago, and the results have come: His 1.00 walk-to-strikeout percentage over the past two seasons is in line with Soto’s — and second only to Luis Arraez for best in MLB.

That ability, combined with his slug, puts him in a rare class with Soto and perhaps Mookie Betts before he signs his 12-year, $365 million contract with the Dodgers. Despite a season-ending calf injury, Tucker also stole 25 bases last year, which is reminiscent of Soto, who stole 38 in 2025.

McDaniel’s original screening: 11 years, $418 million

McDaniel’s updated projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential carryovers)