Could Dodgers’ Edwin Díaz signing portend more big offseason moves?
ORLANDO, Fla. — As the lobby of the Signia by Hilton Orlando hotel filled up Tuesday morning during the MLB Winter Meetings, an unexpected prize fell into the hands of the Dodgers.
Edwin Díaz, the top reliever on this year’s free agent market, was suddenly moving away from the New York Mets, who reportedly only got the fan favorite closer with a three-year offer that did little to entice him to re-sign with the team.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, were coming in late to snatch up the powerful right-hander, submitting a more lucrative three-year offer that would pay Díaz a relief pitcher record $23 million per season.
Just like that, the Dodgers had gone from a perfectly content, but remarkably calm, winter to one in which they had once again flexed their financial muscles and stunned the baseball industry.
“There were a lot of scenarios [that could have potentially played out this winter] “But we just prepared on multiple fronts. And being aggressive, if something happened, we knew it from the start [it is something we would do].”
The signing of Díaz was a confirmation of the team’s modus operandi in the free agent market. They always target at least the best talent. They always at least stay around the blackboard, as Friedman calls it, in case a player’s market doesn’t develop as expected. And now they are armed with inexhaustible resources that can make them a threat to recover any rebound.
As they leave Orlando this week and begin the rest of this offseason, this serves as a reminder:
The Dodgers might not need take another big step, in the same way that they downplayed the need for any big acquisition coming for the winter.
But they will certainly be ready to pounce if another opportunity presents itself.
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“I would say we can definitely do it,” Friedman hinted when asked if another big move this offseason might be possible. “Whether it makes the most sense in the timeline of our list – there are so many factors that go into it, and any decision you make has a future cost. It’s just a matter of weighing that. So, yes, we can. How likely it is that that’s the case, that’s probably another question.”
Start with the top free agent available, Kyle Tucker.
The Dodgers are not expected to make a long-term deal for the soon-to-be 29-year-old and four-time All-Star. If its bidding war, as expected, results in offers of up to 8-10 years and $400 million, the club is unlikely to commit; given the glut of long-term contracts already on their books and the crop of young outfield prospects expected to reach the majors over the next few seasons.
But what would happen if the Tucker market cooled? What if, like Díaz, he were to consider relatively short-term deals with higher annual salaries? Granted, that’s unlikely to happen, given the high level of interest Tucker reportedly receives, including from the Toronto Blue Jays and their suddenly big-spending front office. If that’s the case, however, the Dodgers could once again become blockbuster candidates, still needing to fill out their outfield as they embark on a quest for a World Series three-peat.
The same dynamic could be in play with other top free agents. The Dodgers have already expressed interest in familiar face Cody Bellinger, who could bring both positional versatility and a more refined hitting approach than in his first stint with the club. Bo Bichette also presents the kind of balanced offensive profile the Dodgers are supposedly looking for, as they try to shore up a lineup that too often boom-or-busted last year.
Like Tucker, both players are unlikely to fit the Dodgers’ overall plans if their free agencies develop as expected (with Bellinger set for around five years and $150 million, and Bichette perhaps eight years and upwards of $200 million).
But thanks to the team’s strong financial outlook — and the fact that a salary cap could be in place next year that could potentially incentivize additional spending now — all it would take is a slight cooling in either player’s market to make them more realistic goals for the two-time defending champions.
As long as there isn’t excessive long-term risk, the Dodgers don’t appear to be afraid of lucrative short-term commitments to support their newly cemented dynasty.
“We not only have a really talented group of players, but we also have a group of extremely motivated players, who want to take care of their legacy, create a dynasty and be part of something really special,” Friedman said. “With that mindset, it’s easier to invest. And we’re doing everything we can to help support that and help make it happen.”
The Dodgers could also get aggressive in the trade market. Brandon Donovan and Lars Nootbaar of the St. Louis Cardinals are internally considered crises. Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians would be an even bigger addition, although he’s less likely to be traded this winter.
Then there’s the real white whale: two-time Cy Young Award-winning pitcher Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.
For now, it’s uncertain at best whether Skubal, who will be a free agent after next season and likely won’t sign a contract extension with the Tigers (or any team that trades for him) before then, will be traded this winter.
If he does, it will be an extremely high cost for a starting pitcher with one year of team control remaining.
If there’s any team that has the ammunition to achieve this, it’s the Dodgers, with their great pitching depth and top-notch farm system. As with their free agent activities, there will likely be a limit to what they part with. But if the Tigers are seriously considering a trade, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers get seriously involved.
There are of course less splashy routes for this offseason. If the Dodgers don’t make another marquee addition, they still feel confident with the core roster they have in place.
Again, that’s the tone they took in those winter meetings, before eliminating Díaz in the surprise move of the week.
So, the baseball world is once again put on alert: the Dodgers will not be reckless. They want to maintain long-term flexibility. But if they see interest in a high-talent target in the short term, they won’t be afraid to spend big again.
