Few leads in Guthrie investigation after 11 days

Eleven days after “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s mother disappeared from her home in the foothills of Tucson, Arizona, investigators had yet to identify a suspect or even a person of interest as of Wednesday.

What seemed like a major break Tuesday — when authorities arrested a person for questioning — fizzled when the man was released hours later. The detention follows another potential disruption earlier in the day when investigators released video footage showing a masked and apparently armed man outside Nancy Guthrie’s door the night she disappeared.

The general lack of progress has generated pressure and questions among local and federal investigators, who have not held a news conference in days. From the outside, it may seem unlikely to solve the case and find Guthrie, 84, but investigators may be further along than they let on.

It’s not uncommon for cases to appear dead at first and eventually be solved, said Mary Ellen O’Toole, a former FBI profiler who worked for years on the search for the “Unabomber.”

So how do investigators approach cases like this?

The Masked Figure and the Unabomber

Surveillance footage released Tuesday showed a person on Guthrie’s porch wearing a ski mask, a backpack and what looked like a holstered handgun.

It was the best opportunity for the public to help identify the suspect, O’Toole said, reflecting on the hunt for Ted Kaczynski, known as the “Unabomber,” who was arrested in 1996 after years of searching.

Kaczynski, who led a 17-year bombing campaign that killed three people and injured 23 others, wrote a manifesto that was published in the New York Times and the Washington Post before he was arrested.

His brother recognized Kaczynski’s tone in the screed, the FBI warned, and Kaczynski was arrested at a cabin outside Lincoln, Montana.

Similarly, Luigi Mangione, who allegedly shot the CEO of UnitedHealthcare in New York, was arrested five days later when someone recognized him at a McDonald’s and asked him for information.

In Guthrie’s case, the release of the surveillance footage and Savannah Guthrie’s appeal for help from the public are the same strategy, O’Toole said.

Someone who knows the suspect may have noticed him acting in unusual ways, such as not going to work, closely following the news, or making offhand comments about the case.

If they recognize something familiar about the masked person filmed, it could confirm their suspicions and lead them to alert investigators, O’Toole said.

DNA and the University of Idaho Murders

Investigators said DNA from blood on Guthrie’s porch matched Guthrie’s, and O’Toole said investigators would continue to search the area for a potential suspect’s DNA, including hair or fingerprints, which has helped solve other cases.

Bryan Kohberger, the criminology student who broke into a home and stabbed four University of Idaho students to death in 2022, was arrested after DNA was found on the sheath of a knife left on the bed of one of the victims.

This DNA returned no results from standard law enforcement databases, so investigators turned to publicly available genealogy services, searching for possible relatives.

After spotting Kohberger by following his car using surveillance footage near the crime scene, investigators retrieved a cotton swab from the trash outside his family’s home and tested the DNA.

This matched the father of the person whose DNA was on the knife sheath.

Strange Encounters and the Brown University Shooting

In the days following the deaths of two people at Brown University in 2025, investigators appeared no closer to identifying the suspect.

When police finally shared images of a person of interest, a man began posting on Reddit that he recognized the person and that police should look into a gray Nissan.

The source, named only as “John” in a police affidavit, told investigators he encountered a man in the bathroom and thought his clothes were “inappropriate and unsuitable for the weather.” John saw him outside again, acting nervous and nervous near the Nissan.

John’s information about the car helped identify the shooter, Claudio Neves Valente, six days later, leading investigators to a storage unit where he was found dead by suicide.

It is unclear whether John accepted the $50,000 reward for information offered in the case. The FBI is offering the same amount for information on Guthrie’s apparent kidnapping and hoping an informant like John might come forward. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department said Wednesday it has received nearly 18,000 calls since the day Guthrie was reported missing.

Connor Hagan, an FBI spokesman, said in an earlier statement: “Someone has this information that can help us bring Nancy home. »