Deterrence or escalation? What the surge of US troops might mean in Iran.
There is a saying often invoked when wars approach: if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.
The late Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld reportedly cited it privately within the George W. Bush administration while U.S. troops were deployed in Baghdad, and then publicly in 2013 to criticize President Barack Obama when the United States was fighting the Islamic State in Syria.
And while President Donald Trump said this week that America would end its war with Iran “very soon,” thousands of American troops continued to pour into the Middle East in a campaign that the president said could last another two to three weeks.
Why we wrote this
As more ground forces move toward Iran, shifting threats and end goals could either confuse opponents and lead to success or drag the United States into another forever war.
Veterans and analysts warn that combining forces without a clear end goal in Iran could be a recipe for the kind of mission creep that has turned conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan into quagmires.
For his part, Mr. Trump said last week that he could leave the war with or without a deal.
But such a decision by President Trump would be difficult to imagine, analysts say. The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed for business, driving up gasoline prices for American voters, which, given this fall’s midterm elections, could jeopardize control of Congress by the Republicans, the president’s party.
Iran still has enriched uranium buried underground, which could be used to make nuclear weapons. Preventing that possibility is the main reason Mr. Trump said he went to war. And the Iranian regime still rules the country.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that U.S. bases in the region were receiving “more and more bunkers” and that all options remained on the table, including sending U.S. ground troops to Iran.
When a reporter asked the Secretary of Defense this week what he would say to Americans who “love the president” but “are very concerned about this notion of troops on the ground,” Mr. Hegseth responded. “I don’t understand why [Republican] the rank and file … would not have confidence in their ability to execute this,” he said.
The U.S. military is preparing for a number of possible scenarios, analysts say, such as using Army paratroopers or Navy special expeditionary units to take control of the Iranian islands, or perhaps occupy them. This could precede or follow minesweeping and tanker escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz, reopening passage to commercial traffic.
Pentagon officials also likely have developed several plans to send U.S. special operations units to Iran to secure enriched uranium. This uranium is believed to have been buried under rubble following massive US bomb strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last June. Open source intelligence reports show an increase in air traffic from US bases in the region where Delta Force and Ranger Regiment units are currently stationed.
Having a growing number of U.S. forces in the region “almost provides momentum in itself,” says retired Lt. Col. Brad Taylor, who served in special operations, including eight years as commander of Delta Force.
This can create momentum to employ ground troops, he said. “You’ve done so much planning that it’s almost like, ‘Well, I guess we’ll use them.'”
The U.S. military has struck more than 11,000 targets in 30 days, and officials say Iran’s ability to deploy missiles is degraded, but not destroyed.
“Yes, they will fire a few more missiles,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters. “But we’re going to take them down.”
Kharg Island
Some administrative advisors argued that an operation such as the capture of Kharg Island would pose relatively low risk.
Michael Rubin, a neoconservative analyst formerly a member of Iraq’s Coalition Provisional Authority, called the measure a “simple” one that would “protect its oil installations for a post-war economy.”
“The destruction of guard posts on the island sets the stage for U.S. forces to occupy it,” wrote Dr. Rubin, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, amid reports that he advised Trump administration officials.
Such an operation could still happen, “especially if people tell Trump that this would be the easy way out he’s looking for,” says Harrison Mann, a former Army major specializing in Middle East analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency.
In a typical scenario, Kharg Island could be taken by paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division parachuted by plane, or by Marines from expeditionary units dropped by helicopters.
The latter solution would be more dangerous, since the helicopters must land at some point, making them relatively easy to hit. Planes carrying airborne troops are also targets, but they are not required to land.
The planes are also largely safe from Iranian drones, and fighter jet escorts can suppress remaining Iranian air defenses. But paratroopers land in a scattered manner, which could also make them vulnerable to capture, says Mr. Mann, now associate director of policy and campaigns for Win Without War, a network of progressive grassroots organizations.
“Especially if it’s a combat jump where the plane is probably going to go low and fast, it’s a hard landing, like you’re being pushed out of a third-story window,” Mann notes. “These soldiers do not touch the ground with their weapons in the air. »
Kharg Island has a decent-sized civilian population that may or may not have friendly feelings toward US forces.
Iran could initially let U.S. troops land unopposed, Mann notes, which could amount to a trap to attract and potentially target even more forces.
Troops on the ground need supplies, logistical support and medical care – all of which require security escorts. Then there is the question of extraction, he adds. “As dangerous as it is to bring troops onto the island, it is even more dangerous to take them off.”
Airbus Defense and Space©/AP/File
The question of nuclear weapons
Preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons is a frequently cited reason by the Trump administration for starting war. Mr. Trump cited it again this week.
Delta Force, an elite US Army unit specializing in raids and capture of high-value targets, was created for missions such as securing Iranian uranium, with training in securing chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (known as CBRN) hazards.
But enriched uranium reserves – like those believed to be in Iran – are considered hard, deeply buried targets (which also have their own acronym, HDBT, in military parlance).
“People keep talking about special operations forces doing this. Yes, we train for things like that, but it’s just rubble,” says Mr. Taylor, who writes novels about military missions. When it comes to extracting Iranian uranium, given previous bombings, he adds: “You don’t look at the special forces guys, you look at the engineers with bulldozers.” »
If they were to be sent there, these forces would need a “huge contingent” of protection, he adds. That could mean more than 1,000 additional U.S. troops to form a security phalanx around special forces troops, as well as military engineers who are expected to accompany them as they carry out their jobs.
Even if the United States could deploy forces on the ground without much resistance, Iran could launch pinpoint attacks, such as sniper attacks, to drive up U.S. casualties one by one, further stoking resistance to the war in the United States.
And even if special forces troops were able to secure enriched uranium at some sites, questions would remain about how much might still be there.
Hypothetically, some intelligence assessments might conclude that there are five rounds of material remaining, others ten, for example. If the United States discovers eight, could the intelligence be wrong? Or could two cartridges be missing? “It’s difficult to prove a negative result,” says Mr. Taylor.
For now, Mr. Hegseth says the administration “will not rule out any options” in Iran, although the defense secretary acknowledged that refusal could be a strategic feint.
“You cannot fight and win a war if you tell your opponent what you are prepared to do or what you are not prepared to do,” he told reporters. “Our opponent currently thinks there are 15 different ways to attack him with boots on the ground. And guess what? There are.”
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