Viktor Orban’s dilemma – Russian oil or Trump’s favour

“There is a network of opposition to the war in the world, with two focal points: one of power led by the American president and the other of spirit found here with the Holy Father,” Viktor Orban said Monday after meeting Pope Leo at the Vatican.

“We draw our strength, our motivation and our blessing from these two forces,” the Hungarian Prime Minister said.

If his ally in the White House, US President Donald Trump, had been on his mind, his thoughts might have turned to the delicate meeting that awaits him next week in Washington.

The man whom Trump called a “great leader” and who has long been admired in MAGA circles, suddenly finds himself in an unusual position: at odds with the American president on an issue of crucial importance.

At the center of these negotiations will be new U.S. pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to urgently wean themselves off Russian oil – Trump’s latest strategy in his efforts to pressure Russia into ending its war against Ukraine.

When asked recently whether Trump had gone too far in imposing sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Orban replied “from the Hungarian point of view, yes.”

Orban uses his country’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas to advance his own agenda in several ways.

He used it as a weapon to attack Brussels, as a way to maintain his good relations with Moscow and as a platform on which he hopes to be re-elected next April in Hungary. He promised voters “cheap Russian energy”.

He will run in this election presenting himself as a safe person in an increasingly uncertain world. But Orban is trailing in most opinion polls, after his government was rocked by the meteoric rise of opposition Tisza party leader Peter Magyar.

The Hungarian prime minister was also angered by repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on the Druzhba pipeline this summer, which briefly disrupted supplies to his country.

Top Hungarian officials have been hinting for months that they believe the war in Ukraine could be over by the end of the year — a seemingly absurd claim, until news of a planned summit in Budapest between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin broke earlier this month.

But Orban’s carefully laid plans began to unravel on October 21, when the White House announced that the summit had been canceled.

Orban’s government had been working in secret for months on plans for the summit. Balazs Orban, Orban’s political director (no relation), has a close relationship with US Vice President JD Vance and is believed to have played an important role.

Orban hopes to persuade Trump to ease pressure on Hungary at least until the election, when the two men meet in Washington next week.

The Hungarian government appears to be counting on the idea that Trump is bored with the war in Ukraine and wants to turn his back on it if no deal is reached soon.

Orban has strongly opposed Western military and financial support for Ukraine and rules out Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU. He portrays Trump as a peace-loving president, dismissing what he sees as the EU’s warmongers.

The highlight of the canceled summit in Budapest would have been the moment he appeared on the balcony of the Carmelite convent on Castle Hill, overlooking the Danube, flanked by Presidents Trump and Putin. How could Hungarians vote against such an internationally famous leader, he might have asked.

In Rome on Monday, despite the US layoffs, Orban insisted the summit would still take place – it was only a matter of time. This weekend, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov quietly suggested the same thing.

The main issue deteriorating relations between the United States and Hungary is oil.

In 2024, Hungary even increased the amount of oil it receives from Russia via the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. On October 23, as Orban addressed a rally of his supporters outside Parliament in Budapest, the United States announced sanctions against Russia’s two oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft.

In 2020, Hungary received 64% of its oil via the Friendship Pipeline from Russia, via Belarus and Ukraine. In 2024, this figure rose to 80%, or 5 million tonnes per year.

The Hungarian government says onshore pipelines are the cheapest way to transport oil and, without its own sea coast, it has no alternative. Much smaller quantities are also imported from Kazakhstan, Croatia, Iraq and Azerbaijan.

Another problem is that Russian Ural crude has a higher sulfur content than Brent crude supplied elsewhere. Hungary’s large Szazhalombatta refinery, run by Hungarian oil giant MOL, and the Slovnaft refinery in Slovakia, also run by MOL, are both set up to process mainly Urals crude, not Brent.

Within the EU, Orban is now the longest-serving leader. Far from leaving the bloc, he wishes to remake it in his image, as a union of sovereign nations. For this he also received praise from Putin.

But Hungary’s argument that it cannot change is contradicted by the Czech example. It is a country with a population similar to that of Hungary and also landlocked.

The Czech Republic has traditionally depended on Russian crude for the eight million tonnes of oil it needs per year.

In early 2022, following the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech government led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala invested heavily in improving the existing transalpine pipeline to the Italian port of Trieste.

At the same time, its Kralupy and Litvínov refineries were adapted to Brent crude. In April 2025, the Czech authorities proudly announced that they no longer received a drop of Russian oil.

Energy experts say that even if MOL, the Hungarian oil giant, is quietly changing its technology, what is missing is a political decision by the government to switch to the Adria pipeline from the Croatian port of Omisalj.

There are also disputes between Croatian company Janaf and MOL over how much oil the pipeline could handle.

When the two meet next week, Trump will urge Orban to show some political will to wean himself off Russian supplies.

But Orban might view this as a difficult decision to explain to Hungarian voters. After years of arguing that Hungary could not survive without Russian oil and gas, he would lose face if it turned out to be possible.

Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, said in a Fox News interview on Sunday that Hungary has still “taken no active steps” to end its dependence on Russian oil.

“Our Hungarian friends will have to do a lot of planning,” he said, pledging U.S. help to Hungary and Croatia to make it happen.

As the crow flies, Omisalj is only 70 km from Trieste. Seaborne oil from Kazakhstan, Libya, Azerbaijan, the United States and Iraq could soon also be transported to Hungary via the Adria pipeline.

Despite Orban’s dire warnings of rising prices, there is no data – at least so far – to suggest that Czech consumers should pay more.

There’s nothing his old friend Donald Trump loves more than making a deal.

Orban is about to discover just how convincing the American president can be.