Ukraine’s farms once fed billions, but now its soil is starving

For decades, Ukraine was considered the breadbasket of the world. Before the large-scale Russian invasion in 2022, it was among the world’s leading producers and exporters of sunflower oil, corn and wheat. These have helped feed more than 400 million people around the world.

But beyond the news about the grain blockades lies a deeper, slower-moving crisis: the depletion of the nutrients that make Ukraine’s fertile black soil so productive.

While the ongoing war has focused global attention on Ukraine’s food supply chains, much less is known about the sustainability of the agricultural systems that underpin them.

Ukrainian soil may no longer be able to support the country’s role as a leading food producer without urgent action. And this could have consequences far beyond its borders.

In our research, we examined nutrient management in Ukrainian agriculture over the past 40 years and found a dramatic reversal in nutrient levels.

During the Soviet era, Ukrainian agricultural lands were excessively fertilized. Nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were applied at levels far above what the crops could absorb. This has led to air and water pollution.

But since independence in 1991, the scales have tipped in the opposite direction. Fertilizer use, particularly phosphorus and potassium, fell as imports declined, livestock numbers declined (reducing manure availability), and supply chains collapsed.

In 2021, just before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian soil was already showing signs of tension. Farmers added far less phosphorus and potassium than crops took in, about 40 to 50 percent less phosphorus and 25 percent less potassium, and soil organic matter had declined by almost 9 percent since independence.

In many areas, farmers have applied too much nitrogen, but often too little phosphorus and potassium to maintain long-term fertility. Additionally, although livestock numbers have declined significantly in recent decades, our analysis shows that approximately 90% of the manure still produced is wasted. This equates to around US$2.2 billion (£1.6 billion) in fertilizer value each year.

These nutritional imbalances are not just a national problem. They threaten Ukraine’s long-term agricultural productivity and, by extension, the global food supply that depends on it.

The war greatly intensified the problem. The Russian invasion disrupted fertilizer supply chains and damaged storage facilities. Fertilizer prices have soared. Many farmers deliberately applied less fertilizer in 2022-23 to reduce financial risks, knowing that their crops could be destroyed, stolen or unsold due to blocked export routes.

Our new research reveals alarming trends across the country. By 2023, harvested crops have absorbed up to 30% more nitrogen, 80% more phosphorus, and 70% more potassium from the soil than they received through fertilization, soil microbes, and the air (including what falls in the rain and what settles on the soil from the air).

If these trends continue, Ukraine’s famously fertile soil could face lasting degradation, threatening the country’s ability to recover and supply global food markets once peace returns.

Rebuilding soil fertility

Some solutions exist and many are feasible even in times of war. Our research team has developed a plan for Ukrainian farmers that could quickly make a difference. These measures could significantly improve nutrient use efficiency and reduce nutrient waste, allowing farms to remain productive and profitable, while reducing soil degradation and environmental pollution.

These proposed solutions include:

1. Precision fertilization – apply fertilizer at the right time, in the right place and in the right quantity to effectively meet crop needs.
2. Improved manure utilization – establishing local systems to collect surplus manure and redistribute it to other farms, reducing dependence on synthetic (imported) fertilizers
3. Improved fertilizer use – application of fertilizers with improved efficiency that release nutrients slowly, reducing losses to air and water.
4. Plant legumes (like peas or soybeans) – including them in the crop rotation improves soil health while naturally adding nitrogen.

Some of these actions require investment, such as better storage and processing facilities and better application of manure to fields, but many can be rolled out, at least partially, without much additional funding.

Ukraine’s recovery fund, supported by the World Bank to help Ukraine after the end of the war, includes support for agriculture, which could play a key role in this regard.

Why it matters beyond Ukraine

The nutritional crisis in Ukraine is a warning to the world. Intensive and unbalanced agriculture, whether through overexploitation, underutilization or misuse of fertilizers, is unsustainable. Poor nutrient management contributes to both food insecurity and environmental pollution.

Our research is part of the upcoming International Nitrogen Assessment, which highlights the need for effective global nitrogen management and presents practical options for maximizing the multiple benefits of better nitrogen use – improved food security, climate resilience and water and air quality.

In the rush to secure cheap food and stable exports, we must not neglect the foundations of long-term agricultural productivity: healthy, fertile soils.

Supporting Ukrainian farmers offers a chance to not only rebuild a nation, but also change global agriculture to help create a more resilient and sustainable future.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.