A professor breaks down Russia’s negotiating tactics with Ukraine : NPR

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We wanted to spend a few more minutes on Russian tactics. So now we will turn to Nina Khrushcheva. She is a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York and the great-granddaughter of former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Professor, thank you very much for joining us.

NINA KHRUSHCHEVA: Thank you. Good morning.

MARTIN: How would you characterize Russia’s overall strategy?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Russia thinks: Putin thinks he has won the war and, therefore, the end of the war, if it comes, will be on his terms. Ukraine will never join NATO. Ukraine abandons at least two regions, Donbass and Luhansk, but also two others, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The Russian language is restored in Ukraine. And so he thinks that he can, as someone who is moving forward with his troops, demand these kinds of conditions to end the war.

MARTIN: As we just heard, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Putin’s residence. The Ukrainian president denies having carried out this attack. The Russian Foreign Minister nevertheless claims that this changes Russia’s negotiating position. How do you read this?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Well, the Ukrainians probably attacked. In fact, we know that they attacked the region, and Putin was in the region. The Russians are exaggerating enormously. So now they say: well, we know for sure that it was an attack on Putin, an attack on the locals, and we will pay back. The demands were maximalist at the start and now they will be even more demanding. I mentioned the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Before Putin declared that he was somehow ready to stand with Russian troops, about 20% of the territory of these regions, even more importantly, still belongs to Ukraine. And I think now he’s probably going to want them all.

MARTIN: I mean, the Russians have constantly attacked civilian positions – schools, hospitals, you know, sensitive sites, etc. So what is it? Are they claiming it was an assassination attempt or what are they arguing here?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Well, actually, they’re not claiming an assassination. And now they’re saying, well, they launched an attack where nuclear decisions are made and that’s very important. And so for them, it’s an escalation to end the conflict. We must therefore intensify efforts to ensure that Volodymyr Zelensky has even fewer maneuvering positions. And so, if he has it, he can no longer maneuver, so the Russians can demand more.

So I think that’s part of the fact that Zelensky is now against Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky also wished Putin dead on the 25th for his Christmas speech. And now the Russians are benefiting too.

MARTIN: You’ve shared several times – as have other analysts – that Russia has always maintained, at least under Putin, this maximalist stance, this sort of maximalist negotiating strategy. Is there anything you could see that might make them rethink this?

KHRUSHCHEVA: I don’t see that. I mean, unless there’s an all-out war in Europe, unless the Europeans put troops on the ground, unless, for example, Congress says there’s a midterm election, Trump is no longer a dominant figure because Congress is owned by the Democrats. And that’s actually, I think, what Volodymyr Zelenskyy is looking for, in a way as well, waiting for this to happen so that there are tomahawks sent to Ukraine and then sent to Russia. I don’t think so, because what we know about Putin and what analysts or many analysts say is that when pressure comes, he responds with even more pressure. So to say that we’re going to force Putin into a negotiating position is actually a stupid mistake (ph) because the more you force him, the longer it’s going to take for him to retaliate because for him, this is now an existential battle between Russia and the West.

MARTIN: But it’s also an existential battle on the Ukrainian side, right?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Oh, absolutely. It’s much more existential on the Ukrainian side, but Russia plays a bigger role in the battle because Ukraine cannot fight alone. Russia is essentially fighting alone. And so we can’t really claim parity here, because that’s – and that’s what Putin is saying. We are fighting and we will fight to the death. Can you fight to the death, Ukraine? You will collapse first before you die.

MARTIN: So before we let you go, I think you’ve said, or you’ve suggested here and elsewhere, that Russia – even though it’s a bitter war with heavy losses on both sides, significant costs to both sides – is winning militarily. And diplomatically?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Russia doesn’t win diplomatically, but that’s also who you ask, because all these ideas that Russia is going to become a pariah and countries – many countries aren’t going to talk to it, of course they do. I mean, we just heard from Narendra Modi in India saying he’s very concerned about this attack, whether it’s proven or not, but he’s very concerned.

Russia is therefore not an isolated country, which was expected in 2022, when the war broke out. And so it depends on who the diplomacy is aimed at. In Europe, in the West, Russia is diplomatically a pariah. Elsewhere, not so much. Russia therefore has time to extend its influence, even if it is very injured by the war. But Putin doesn’t care. As long as he is alive, he can fight this war. He will fight this war.

MARTIN: Nina Khrushcheva is a professor of international affairs at the New School and, as we mentioned, a longtime analyst of Russia. Professor Khrushcheva, thank you very much for sharing these ideas with us once again.

KHRUSHCHEVA: Thank you.

Copyright © 2025 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit the terms of use and permissions pages on our website at www.npr.org for more information.

The accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. The text of the transcript may be edited to correct errors or match updates to the audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio recording.