Week 16 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Bears and Packers set for huge clash
The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers could go in different directions. Everyone might realize that after Saturday night.
The Bears have played much better over the past three weeks, perhaps due to the natural progression of taking over Ben Johnson’s scheme. That included a very competitive loss at Green Bay two weeks ago. Maybe if this game had been in Chicago, things would have gone the other way. Or if the Packers didn’t have their best player.
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Green Bay has a problem that will persist for the remainder of its season. The Packers won’t be the same without Micah Parsons, who is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. They can’t replace his 12.5 sacks or the attention other offenses give him. Opponents had to game plan around a talent like Parsons, and that’s no longer the case. Green Bay doesn’t have a difference maker anywhere near Parsons’ level. The Packers are also without other key players due to season-ending injuries, such as tight end Tucker Kraft, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. That’s a lot to lose.
With Parsons, the Packers were a much better bet to win the NFC North. It was also easier to imagine it a month ago. Over the first two-thirds of the season, the Bears built a good record by beating bad teams and winning many close games. Something had to change to maintain their record, and it did. The Bears beat the Eagles, almost beat the Packers, then destroyed the Browns 31-3 in the type of blowout they hadn’t had earlier in the season. They are improving and they have already had a lot of victories.
The Bears are 1-point underdogs for Saturday night’s showdown against the Packers, but that appears to be based on where the teams were weeks ago. Or even a week ago. The Bears are the pick, and a win should propel them to a division title.
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers held on to beat the Bears in the first meeting between the teams this season. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
(John Fisher via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the NFL Week 16 picks, with odds from BetMGM:
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Seahawks (-1.5) vs. Rams
This might be the best game of the NFL regular season. It’s not often that you see the two best teams in football (sorry the Broncos, or whoever thinks they’re in the top two) meet with so much on the line. The picture of the Super Bowl changes depending on who wins and gets the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. In the first meeting, the Rams won 21-19, and Sam Darnold’s four interceptions were a big reason why. If Darnold only threw three interceptions, Seattle will likely win this game on the road. The Rams have confused Darnold over the past two seasons, but it’s (probably) unwise to expect a similar collapse again. And Davante Adams being listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury is a big deal for the Rams.
Commanders (+6.5) on the Eagles
The Eagles are not completely repaired. They played the Raiders last week. The last time the Commanders played a single game at home, they almost beat the Broncos. They followed that up with a terrible game in Minnesota, but bounced back to beat the Giants. Who knows what we’ll get out of Washington, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Eagles offense struggle again now that they’re facing someone other than Las Vegas.
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Browns (+10) on the bills
It’s getting harder and harder to back double-digit underdogs. Four out of five didn’t cover last week. Cleveland hasn’t covered the spread in any of its last three games. Still, the Bills may not be the dominant team the market represents. They should have lost to the Bengals at home two weeks ago, before Christian Benford’s incredible pick-6. They had to come out of a 21-0 deficit against the Patriots last week. It’s always difficult to write off Josh Allen, but 10 points is still a lot in the NFL.
Chargers (+2.5) over Cowboys
Your strange spread of the week. Unless you’re Jerry Jones, you’ve realized for a while that the Cowboys are a mediocre team. They’re not bad. But they are definitely not good. The Chargers aren’t without their flaws, but they are 10-4 and for good reason. Is there any disappointment after a big win in Kansas City, especially with a very small chance of winning the division? Maybe. But we all know who is the better team in this match.
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Chiefs (-3) against the Titans
This could be a huge dish for the Chiefs. They haven’t played a single game after being knocked out of the playoff race since before Patrick Mahomes was drafted. And Mahomes is obviously out. But the Titans are horrible. Their two wins came by a combined three points. As long as the Chiefs are reasonably interested in playing, they should win.
Dolphins (+4) over the Bengals
If you’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa play lately, you won’t discount the Dolphins too much since they’ll be turning to Quinn Ewers. Even though the Dolphins were on a winning streak, Tagovailoa was just a game manager. Perhaps the Dolphins will rally around Ewers for at least one game. The Bengals, on the other hand, looked disengaged during a lifeless 24-0 loss last week to the Ravens.
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Saints (-4.5) over the Jets
It’ll be Brady Cook again for the Jets on Sunday, and while it could have been a lot worse for him last week in his first career start, it wasn’t good either. The Jets’ defense also collapsed in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars. The Saints are not good but they are playing hard, and that should be enough against a Jets team that will have an ugly end to the season.
Vikings (-3) against the Giants
Is JJ McCarthy reaching a milestone? Maybe. He has a passer rating of 120.3 in his last two games, after a 57.9 rating in his first six. On the other hand, it’s hard to say that the Giants are tanking. Coaches and players don’t care about a team’s draft position. But with the Giants losing to an equally bad Commanders at home last week, it was hard not to consider that the Giants would have the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft if the season ended now. It’s probably just a case of a terrible team that can lose to anyone. They can also lose to the Vikings.
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Buccaneers (-3) against the Saints
Do you want to take the team that just blew a 14-point lead and lost at home to the Falcons, or the team that blew a 10-point lead and got swept by the Saints? One of these teams will make the playoffs, although we might be better off if they pulled a Notre Dame and bowed out. The Buccaneers have a few extra days off, they are the better team and maybe coach Todd Bowles’ speech will spark something. It’s a high-stakes game, but neither team is sprinting to the finish line.
Broncos (-3) against the Jaguars
The Jaguars still have a 7.6 percent chance of advancing to the No. 1 seed, according to DVOA. They should beat the Broncos on Sunday, and Jacksonville seems to be improving late in the season. Yet the Broncos have been underrated all season and this discrepancy is another example of that. This was also the case last week, when the Broncos were underdogs at home but still won. The NFL’s only 12-2 team is better than the betting market seems to think.
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Falcons (-3) against the Cardinals
The Cardinals are one of those teams that plays like they hope the season ends. The Falcons aren’t great, but they’ve shown more life lately than Arizona. Which doesn’t mean much.
Lions (-7) against the Steelers
Leos are predictable. Since the beginning of October, they have alternated victories and defeats, without ever stringing together a series of two consecutive victories or defeats. Last week they lost to the Rams. You know what that means.
Texans (-14.5) vs. Raiders
You won’t see many choices in this space on favorites with more than 14 points. But the idea of facing the Raiders against the best defense in the NFL is not at all appealing.
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Patriots (+3) over the Ravens
The Ravens had a nice win against the Bengals last week, and bettors never gave up on them, even when they weren’t playing well. This is why a 7-7 team is favored by a field goal over an 11-3 team. The Patriots suffered a tough loss last week, but sometimes Josh Allen will just beat you. I need to see it at least one more time from the Ravens before I believe they’re back, or anything close to it.
Colts (+6.5) over 49ers
We saw a hell of an effort from the Colts last week to almost upset the Seahawks. It’s worth wondering if they can repeat that two weeks in a row, especially after a crushing loss. The 49ers defense isn’t great and they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5, when they beat the Rams on a Thursday night. The Colts are not dead yet and Monday night we will have another strong effort.
Last week: 6-10
Season to date: 112-108-6
