Weight-loss jab could be made for $3 a month, study finds | Global health

Weight loss programs such as Wegovy and Ozempic could be made for as little as $3 a month, according to a new analysis, which could make the treatment accessible to millions of people in poorer countries as patents expire.

More than a billion people suffer from obesity worldwide, and rates are rising rapidly in low-income countries as they shift toward Westernized diets and more sedentary lifestyles.

The World Health Organization designated semaglutide – sold to treat obesity under the brand Wegovy and diabetes under the brand Ozempic – as an essential medicine in September last year.

But world health leaders warned at the time that high prices were limiting access.

New research, published in pre-print, suggests semaglutide could be mass-produced for $3 (around £2.35) for a monthly dose in its injectable form.

Newer formulations, taken as a pill rather than an injection, could be made for about $16 a month.

One of the authors, Dr Andrew Hill from the Department of Pharmacology at the University of Liverpool, said: “These low prices open the door to global access to an essential medicine. »

Researchers also found that key patents on semaglutide were set to expire in 10 countries this year, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada starting March 21, opening the way to generic competition.

They identified 150 other countries where no patents had been filed, including most countries in Africa. These 160 countries are home to 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those with obesity.

Another author, Professor François Venter of the Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg, said: “Drugs to treat HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries at prices close to the cost of production, saving millions of lives while allowing generic manufacturers to make sufficient profits to ensure a sustainable supply. We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide.”

The researchers warned that cheaper treatments would not address the structural drivers of obesity, “including food insecurity, poverty, urbanization and commercial food environments”, and said coordinated policies and procurement planning would be needed to reap the benefits.

Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana, scientific director of South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation and an obesity specialist, who was not involved in the study, said: “This could be very important for South Africa and many African countries and low- and middle-income countries. [LMICs] in general, where cost has been one of the main barriers to access.

She said the analysis suggested that around 27% of adults worldwide met the criteria for drugs such as semaglutide “and, more importantly, most of them live in LMICs where access to these drugs is extremely limited”.

Chandiwana said the key question now was how health systems responsibly integrated medicines into broader obesity and diabetes care.

Obesity is linked to a host of other health problems, including heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer. Every year, there are 3.7 million deaths attributed to being overweight.

The number of people living with diabetes has increased from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, with the largest increases in low- and middle-income countries.

Semaglutide was first approved by US regulators in 2017 and costs around $200 per month in the US and £120 per month in the UK. Patents in Britain, continental Europe and the United States do not expire for five years.

The research is based on shipment records of key ingredients from 2024 and 2025 and uses the same methodology used in the past to accurately predict prices for generic HIV, hepatitis C and certain cancer drugs.

Its findings follow research by Médecins Sans Frontières in 2024, which found that diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be made and sold much cheaper.