On June 18, we ran a Rookie of the Year watch and there was an Athletics’ rookie lapping the AL field. Shortstop Jacob Wilson had -1000 odds (meaning he was such a favorite that you’d have to bet $1000 to win $100). When the books put out lines like this, it’s essentially a declaration that the race is mostly a formality and we know who is going to win it. That sentiment remains true right now, but it’s for a different player from the same team.
Fellow A’s rookie Nick Kurtz, who had odds longer than +4000 in mid-June, is now the overwhelming 2025 AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Wilson, meanwhile, was placed on the injured list with a fractured right forearm on Tuesday. This thing is a runaway.
The AL Rookie of the Year odds are as follows, via BetMGM:
- Nick Kurtz, A’s: -5000
- Cam Smith, Astros: +2000
- Roman Anthony, Red Sox: +3500
- Carlos Narváez, Red Sox: +3500
Basically, the books are saying this over less than six weeks after Kurtz was barely even in the race.
How did Nick Kurtz run away in AL ROY race?
Kurtz was promoted to the majors to moderate fanfare on April 23. He had issues with strikeouts early. Through his first 16 games, Kurtz was hitting .269 but he had zero home runs and 23 strikeouts. Through 23 games, he was slashing .208/.259/.299 with two doubles, one triple, one home run, six RBI, six runs, six walks and 31 strikeouts.
And then something clicked for the 22-year-old out of Wake Forest. He went 2 for 4 with a home run on June 15. The next night, he went 2 for 5 with two home runs. That home-runs-coming-in-bunches thing? Yeah, that’ll become a theme. He homered again two games later. Through the middle of June, Kurtz had a streak with five homers in six games. He had homered seven times in July before last Friday night, when Kurtz posted one of the greatest offensive performances in baseball history.
In case you missed it, Kurtz went 6 for 6 with a double, four home runs, eight RBI and six runs in one game.
He now heads to Wednesday hitting .305/.378/.671(!!) with 18 doubles, two triples, 23 home runs, 59 RBI, 47 runs and 3.4 WAR in 69 games.
As if we even needed to do this, let’s look at Kurtz compared to other AL rookies in some stats:
- He isn’t yet qualified for the batting title, but when he gets there, he’s right toward the top. His teammate here, Wilson, is an old-school, batting-average heavy hitter but only leads Kurtz by seven points (.312 to .305). Keep in mind, Wilson’s injury likely means he’s out of qualifying for the batting title, too.
- The next closest to Kurtz’s .676 slugging percentage among AL rookies with at least 25 games played is Wilson at .439.
- Wilson is second here in home runs to Kurtz. He has 10.
- Kurtz is tied for first with Jasson Domínguez in runs scored.
- Wilson is second in RBI with 45, meaning Kurtz has a lead of 12.
- Narváez ranks second in WAR at 3.1.
We’re talking about a 22 year old who needed roughly three weeks to get acclimated to big-league baseball and has hit .349/.429/.837 with 22 homers and 53 RBI in 45 games since. Even without that preposterous game on Friday, that’s an absurd stat line for a rookie — or any player, really.
Nick Kurtz is making an utter mockery of the rest of the AL Rookie of the Year field.
Where NL ROY race stands
While we’re here, let’s hit the NL side really briefly. It’s a much closer race.
Baldwin, a catcher, has been a good enough hitter that he’s starting to get some time at DH. If Marcell Ozuna gets traded, there will be even more opportunity there. Baldwin right now is hitting .277/.348/.468 (127 OPS+) with 11 doubles, 11 homers, 41 RBI, 26 runs and 2.1 WAR in 75 games.
Misioroswki is the most notable talent from this class so far. His stuff is electric and he already pitched in the All-Star Game. What’s the workload gonna look like, though? Through seven starts, he’s worked 33 ⅓ innings and the Brewers have held him to a max of four innings three of his last four starts. He’s 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA (150 ERA+), 0.96 WHIP and 47 strikeouts with 1.0 WAR.
Collins has settled in as, mostly, the left fielder for the first-place Brewers. He’s hitting .278/.380/.406 (123 OPS+) with 10 doubles, a triple, six homers, 30 RBI, 37 runs, 12 steals and 2.32 WAR. The way things are headed, he might well be the best value play here for bettors.
Shaw had an up-and-down first half, but it was mostly down on offense. He’s really picked things up after the All-Star break thanks to a subtle adjustment in his stance. He’s hitting .223/.291/.355 (87 OPS+) with 14 doubles, six homers, 25 RBI, 34 runs, 14 stolen bases and 1.5 WAR. If he keeps hitting like he has in the second half (.371/.389/.800, three doubles, four homers, 10 RBI, six runs, three steals in 11 games), he has a real shot here. The problem is that’s such a small sample and the Cubs continue to be rumored to be in on All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suárez.
Ramírez, a part-time catcher, part-time DH, has 24 doubles, 15 homers and 46 RBI, but he’s hitting .238 with -0.2 WAR, thanks in part to atrocious defensive scores behind the plate. He has good power, but an awful lot of stuff for the players listed above would need to go wrong for a win here.
