What to know about Greenland’s role in nuclear defense and Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’

PARIS– In a hypothetical nuclear war involving Russia, China and the United States, the island of Greenland would find itself in the middle of Armageddon.

The strategic importance of the Arctic territory — given the flight paths that Chinese and Russian nuclear missiles could take to incinerate targets in the United States, and vice versa — is one of the reasons given by U.S. President Donald Trump in his disruptive campaign to regain control of Greenland from Denmark, alarming the Greenlanders and their longtime allies in Europe.

Trump has argued that U.S. ownership of Greenland is vital to his “Golden Dome” — a multibillion-dollar missile defense system that he says will be operational before his term ends in 2029.

“Because of the Golden Dome and modern weapons systems, both offensive and defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important,” Trump said in a Truth Social article on Saturday.

It marked the start of another turbulent week involving the semi-autonomous Danish territory, where Trump again pushed for U.S. ownership before apparently backing down, announcing on Wednesday the “framework for a future deal” on Arctic security that is unlikely to be the final word.

Here’s a closer look at Greenland’s position at the crossroads when it comes to nuclear defense.

The intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, that nuclear adversaries would fire at each other – if it ever happens – tend to take the shortest direct route, on a ballistic trajectory into space and downward, from their silos or launchers to their targets. The shortest air routes from China or Russia to the United States – and vice versa – would take many of them over the Arctic region.

Russian Topol-M missiles fired, for example, from the Tatishchevo silo complex southeast of Moscow would fly over Greenland if targeted at the U.S. ICBM force of 400 Minuteman III missiles, hosted at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana and Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming.

China’s Dong Feng-31 missiles, if fired from new silo fields that the U.S. Defense Department says were built in China, could also fly over Greenland if aimed at the U.S. east coast.

“If there’s a war, a lot of the action will take place on this piece of ice. Think about it: These missiles would be flying right over the center,” Trump said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

A set of high-visibility early warning radars act as the Pentagon’s eyes against any missile attack. The northernmost of these is in Greenland, at the Pituffik space base. Pronounced “bee-doo-FEEK”, it was formerly called Thule Air Base, but was renamed in 2023 using the Greenlandic name for the remote location, in recognition of the indigenous community that was forcibly displaced by the construction of the US outpost in 1951.

Its location above the Arctic Circle, and roughly halfway between Washington and Moscow, allows it to scan the Arctic region, Russia and the potential flight paths of Chinese missiles targeted by the United States with its radar.

“This gives the United States more time to think about what to do,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst specializing in Russia’s nuclear arsenal. “Greenland is a good place for this. »

The AN/FPS-132 bilateral solid-state radar is designed to rapidly detect and track ballistic missile launches, including from submarines, to help inform the U.S. commander in chief about the response and provide data to interceptors to attempt to destroy the warheads.

The radar radiates nearly 5,550 kilometers (3,450 miles) in a 240-degree arc and, even at its farthest range, can detect objects no larger than a small car, according to the U.S. Air Force.

Launching the “Golden Dome” in Davos, Trump said the United States needed to possess Greenland to defend it.

“You can’t defend it with a lease,” he said.

But defense specialists have difficulty understanding this logic given that the United States has operated in Pituffik for decades without owning Greenland.

French nuclear defense specialist Etienne Marcuz points out that Trump never mentioned the need to also take control of the United Kingdom – even though that country, like Greenland, also plays an important role in US missile defense.

An early warning radar operated by the British Royal Air Force at Fylingdales in northern England serves both the British and American governments, scanning for missiles coming from Russia and elsewhere and north to the polar region. The unit’s motto is “Vigilamus” – from the Latin “We observe”.

The multi-layered “Golden Dome” envisioned by Trump could include space sensors to detect missiles. They could reduce the United States’ need for its Greenland-based radar station, said Marcuz, a former nuclear defense employee at the French Defense Ministry who is now a member of the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank in Paris.

“Trump’s argument that Greenland is vital to the Golden Dome – and therefore must be invaded, well, acquired – is false for several reasons,” Marcuz said.

“One of them is that there is, for example, a radar in the United Kingdom, and to my knowledge there is no question of invading the United Kingdom. And above all, there are new sensors which are already tested, being deployed, which will in fact reduce the importance of Greenland.

Due to its geographic location, Greenland could be a useful place to station “Golden Dome” interceptors to attempt to destroy nuclear warheads before they reach the continental United States.

“The highly complex system can only operate at its maximum potential and effectiveness if this state is included in it,” Trump wrote in his message last weekend.

But the United States already has access to Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement. Before Trump ratcheted up pressure on the territory and its owner Denmark, their governments would likely have readily agreed to any U.S. military request to expand its footprint there, experts say. There were once several bases and installations, but later abandoned them, leaving only Pituffik.

“Denmark was the most docile ally of the United States,” Marcuz said. “Now it’s very different. I don’t know if permission would be granted, but anyway, before the answer was ‘Yes’.”