What to know about the first 2026 primary Election Day in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas

Three states kick off the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday with primaries that will shape the battle for control of the House and Senate, while simmering struggles for control of each party could boil over as voters decide whether to oust longtime incumbents.

As Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina vote, the highest-profile race features longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is fighting for his political life against state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in Texas. Both are challenging Cornyn from his right flank in a primary that has brought in nearly $100 million in advertising.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico face off in the opposing primary, a race that has exposed a significant strategic divide within the party over whether Democrats should try to excite their base or focus on bipartisan appeal.

And even though Cornyn is the headliner, he is only one of a handful of incumbents in both parties whose political future is in serious jeopardy.

Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, faces political problems and an ethics investigation amid allegations that he had an affair with an aide who later died by suicide. Reps. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, and Valerie Foushee, D-N.C., are engaged in tough primaries against challengers arguing they are not ideologically pure enough to face the moment. And the political careers of Democratic Reps. Christian Menefee, Al Green and Julie Johnson hang in the balance in Texas thanks to massive changes to their districts following last year’s Republican-led redistricting campaign.

Other primary battles will test the strength of President Donald Trump’s support and provide clues about the type of politicians voters in both parties want to send to Washington, amid concerns about the economy and immigration at home and war abroad.

Here’s what to watch on Election Day.

Defining the Senate Battleground

Texas’ primaries could help determine whether the state is competitive in November, and the prospect of a close general election has played a role in both parties’ primaries.

Cornyn argued that he represented the Republican Party’s best chance to retain his seat — and that Paxton, in particular, could put the party in danger. Paxton was impeached on allegations of bribery and corruption in 2023 (the state Senate acquitted him). He is also in the midst of a divorce, with his wife saying they are separating “for biblical reasons,” a phrase Cornyn’s allies have hammered in attack ads on the airwaves.

Paxton, however, says he can energize Trump supporters who are less likely to turn out in the midterms, when the president is not on the ballot. And Hunt says he has less baggage than Cornyn and Paxton.

So far, Trump has remained neutral in the race, although his takeover of the Republican Party has raised questions about whether longtime politicians like Cornyn have a place in today’s Republican Party.

With three leading Republican candidates, no one is expected to win a majority of votes, meaning the top two vote-getters would head to a May 26 runoff.

Democrats, meanwhile, think they might have a chance to win in Texas, even though Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024. Trump had a narrower margin of 6 points in 2020, and in 2018, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz by less than 3 points.

Crockett, whose combative style helped her build a national reputation, says she can win with a multiracial, multigenerational coalition built by energizing voters who don’t typically turn out to the polls but would be inclined to support a Democrat. Talarico, meanwhile, emphasized his bipartisan appeal, touting his victory in a Republican-leaning state legislative seat.

Talarico and Crockett presented themselves as fighters, with Crockett highlighting his clashes with Trump and Talarico saying he wants to take on a corrupt system that benefits billionaires.

Although how the general election in Texas plays out could remain unclear until the runoffs in May, the race will most likely be in another state crucial to the battle for the Senate: North Carolina.

Tuesday’s primary is expected to formalize the matchup between Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has Trump’s backing. But Tuesday’s results could test whether Whatley still has work to do to shore up the party’s MAGA base, as he faces two primary challengers on the right.

House incumbents under pressure

Gonzales, who represents a sprawling Texas district along the southern border, was already facing an uphill re-election fight this spring, even before the affair allegations.

Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun activist who fell just a few hundred votes short of unseating Gonzales in 2024, is running again, although Gonzales this time has Trump’s support. But the race has been upended by allegations in the affair, including revelations that Gonzales sent sexual text messages to his former aide, according to messages obtained by NBC News.

Gonzales had denied the affair months ago, but his most recent statements do not specifically address the allegation. Instead, he argued that the attacks were politically motivated.

The presence of a third candidate, former Rep. Quico Canseco, could be enough to send the race to a runoff — but it’s possible that one candidate could emerge victorious on Tuesday.

In the Houston area, Crenshaw has tangled with prominent conservatives like Tucker Carlson on social media and now faces a primary challenge from conservative state Rep. Steve Toth. Toth argues that Crenshaw’s positions on Ukraine and immigration are out of step with the “Make America Great Again” wing of the party, while Crenshaw has embraced Trump on the trail and on the airwaves even though Trump has not endorsed him. Last week, Cruz endorsed Toth.

North Carolina is home to the other incumbent president facing a serious, insurgent primary challenge — this time from the left.

Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee is running in a rematch of a 2022 primary against Durham County Board of Commissioners member Nida Allam, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and a constellation of progressive outside groups seeking to reshape the Democratic Party with a new generation of leaders.

Foushee has the support of prominent Democrats in the state, like Gov. Josh Stein. Outside money has flooded the race in recent weeks from both sides, in the first of what could be a series of progressive challenges to established incumbents in the 2026 midterm elections.

How redistricting is reshaping the House

Tuesday’s elections will also see the first concrete results of Republicans’ efforts to increase their chances of retaining a majority in the House by redrawing congressional lines in Texas and North Carolina.

The most direct and immediate impact will be felt in Texas’ 9th and 32nd districts, two formerly dark blue districts where Republican primary winners will be all but assured of victory in November in redrawn, dark red seats.

The impact will not be felt only on Republican territory. At least one incumbent Democrat will lose his seat in Texas this spring because Republicans split their districts as part of their attempt to create five new Republican-leaning seats.

In Houston, newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, is running against longtime Rep. Al Green, 78, in a generational battle sparked because Green’s old seat was turned into a safe Republican district. Next door, Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s district was redrawn, moving from a majority-Hispanic district to one more closely divided between Hispanic and black voting blocs.

And in North Texas, Rep. Julie Johnson and former Rep. Colin Allred are engaged in a competitive primary for a newly drawn blue district after Allred dropped out of the Senate race in deference to Crockett.

Tuesday’s primaries will also shape the battleground districts that Republican lawmakers in Texas and North Carolina have redrawn in hopes of flipping.

In South Texas, Republicans will choose their candidates to take on Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. And in North Carolina, Republicans will choose their candidate in the 1st District, represented by Democratic Representative Don Davis.

Trump support and remote districts

Tuesday’s results will also shed important light on a number of important dynamics within both parties, including the power of Trump’s support.

Trump endorsed all incumbent House Republicans running for reelection in the three states with primaries Tuesday — with the sole exception of Crenshaw.

Yet Crenshaw is campaigning as a Trump ally, even without his official support, while Toth is trying to exploit a perceived weakness for Crenshaw on his right.

Trump embarked on a series of competitive Texas House primaries in which incumbents retired, leaving open seats behind. He supports former Harris County Executive candidate Alex Mealer in the 9th District; former baseball star Mark Teixeira in the 21st district; attorney Jace Yarbrough of the 32nd District; Army veteran Eric Flores in the 34th District; and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz in the 35th District — as well as others filling less competitive open seats.

And there’s another Democratic primary to watch as well, in Texas’ 15th District, the South Texas district, which could be the party’s only chance to go on the offensive in the state. Many Democrats state and national are excited about Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, a prominent musician making his first political bid. But he faces a serious challenge from emergency room doctor Ada Cuellar, who has criticized Pulido from his left on issues such as abortion rights.