What we know about leaked US draft plan to end Russia’s Ukraine war

The draft US-Russian peace plan has been the subject of numerous leaks and we now know that it proposes to cede to the Ukrainian authorities the areas of the industrial region of Eastern Donbass, in Ukraine, still under Ukrainian control. de facto control of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The latest versions of the text also call on Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces to 600,000 troops.

But what else do we know about the text and who will benefit most from it?

There are 28 key points and several at first glance could be acceptable for Ukraine. Others seem vague and imprecise.

The sovereignty of Ukraine would be “confirmed” and there would be a “total and complete global non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe”with robust or reliable “security guarantees” for Kyiv and a request for early elections in 100 days.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, “a robust and coordinated military response” is proposed with a reinstatement of sanctions and abandonment of the agreement.

Although elections are impossible in Ukraine due to martial law, they could theoretically take place if a peace agreement is signed.

But when it comes to security guarantees, there are no details on who would provide them and how strong they would be. This is a far cry from NATO’s Article 5 commitment to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on all. Kyiv would need more than a vague promise if it signed.

Among the most controversial proposals include Ukraine ceding its own unoccupied territory and reducing the size of its armed forces.

“Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.”

Ceding territory where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live – the “fortress belt” cities of Donetsk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – will not be acceptable to most Ukrainians. Russia has spent more than a year trying to capture the city of Pokrovsk – Ukraine is unlikely to cede such important strategic centers without a fight.

“The size of the Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600,000 troops.”

The Ukrainian army was estimated last January at 880,000 active troops, compared to 250,000 at the start of the large-scale invasion in February 2022.

Although 600,000 people might seem like a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, this type of limitation would undermine Ukrainian sovereignty. This figure might also be too high for Russia to accept.

“Our red lines are clear and unwavering,” Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council: “There will never be any formal or other recognition of the Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any limits on its self-defense rights or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”

The project also proposes that “Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States. ».

In other words, Ukraine and other countries would not need to legally recognize Russian control. This could allow kyiv to accept such a formulation, as it would not encroach on Ukraine’s constitution which states that its borders are “indivisible and inviolable.”

Elsewhere, in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, the front lines would be frozen and Russia would abandon areas it has occupied elsewhere in Ukraine.

The draft proposes important commitments on Ukraine’s strategic future:

“Ukraine agrees to include in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.”

“Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will benefit from privileged short-term access to the European market while this issue is being assessed.”

Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the near future and Russia has softened its stance on Ukraine’s bid for EU membership in recent months. The document appears to offer Kyiv access to EU markets while ignoring the views of 27 European countries.

Membership in the EU and NATO is part of Ukraine’s constitution and another red line from Khrystyna Hayovyshyn at the UN on Thursday was: “We will also not tolerate any infringement of our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose which alliances we want to join.”

Other draft proposals include NATO agreeing not to station troops in Ukraine and European fighter jets being stationed in Poland. Kyiv should also commit to being a “Non-nuclear state”.

This appears to reject plans by the Western Coalition of the Willing led by the UK and France to help control any future deal.

Several points evoke the return of Russia from isolation with “Russia must be reintegrated into the global economy” and invited again into the G8 group of powers.

That seems a long way off for now, with Putin under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Russia was kicked out of the G7 after seizing and then annexing Crimea in 2014, and Trump tried to bring Putin back into the fold six years later.

If the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan were reluctant before a full-scale invasion, it is even less likely to happen today.

The project proposes to invest $100 billion in frozen Russian assets. “in the U.S.-led effort to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”with the United States receiving 50% of the profits and Europe adding $100 billion in investment for reconstruction.

This is reminiscent of the US minerals deal with Ukraine earlier this year, which demanded a US price for their involvement, and it also leaves the European Union with hefty bills.

The sums mentioned may not be enough either: at the beginning of this year, the total cost of reconstruction in Ukraine was estimated at $524 billion (€506 billion).

Some 200 billion euros of frozen assets in Russia are largely held by Belgium’s Euroclear, and the European Union is currently working on a plan to use the money to finance kyiv financially and militarily.

The rest of these frozen assets would go to a “American-Russian investment vehicle”according to the project, Russia would therefore see part of its money returned, but again, there would be a financial advantage for the United States.

Several commentators have pointed out that the plan does not require arms limitations for the Ukrainian military or its arms industry, although there is a provision saying: If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the security guarantee will be considered null and void.

But it places no restrictions on the long-range weapons that Ukraine is developing, such as its Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.

We know the US is keen to move forward quickly, on an “aggressive timetable”, with this project, with reports suggesting Ukraine has until Thanksgiving at the end of next week to accept it.

Similarly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who helped draft it, described it as “a list of potential ideas for ending this war”, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul made clear that he did not view the 28 points as a definitive plan, after speaking with the other key US official involved, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff.

In some ways, the draft document appears to be a work in progress, with some details leaked on U.S. websites on Thursday no longer appearing.

The European Union said Friday morning that it had not yet officially learned of the plan, and the Russian Foreign Ministry made the same statement.

Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is known to have spent three days with Witkoff discussing this plan, suggesting a deal rigged to suit Moscow. Russia’s response has so far been cautious, but Putin said it could form the “basis” of a peace deal.

The handover of Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in a demilitarized zone, is the most blatant sign of a bias toward Russian discourse, but freezing the front lines in the south could prove difficult for the Kremlin, which has annexed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in its constitution.

One of the proposals is that the lifting of sanctions be “agreed in stages and on a case-by-case basis” – which Moscow will probably consider far too slow.

However, a plan for a “total amnesty” because all parties will be well received in Moscow and very poorly in kyiv and in European capitals.

Commentators have pointed out that while important concessions appear to have been made to Putin, some NATO demands may be too vague for the Kremlin’s liking.

Russia has also consistently demanded that a peace plan eliminate what it sees as “the root causes” of the war. One of these root causes is the halt to NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, which the project appears to address.

Some of the draft’s other 28 points also refer to Russia’s allegations of discrimination against Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population, without explicitly endorsing them.

One point is explicit but impartial: “Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.”

Another apparent attempt at fairness comes from a proposal to distribute electricity produced by the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – the largest in Europe – “Equally between Russia and Ukraine”.