Are Tom Kean Jr.’s political roots enough to protect the Republican’s House seat?

LEBANON, NJ — Tom Kean Jr.’s political journey dates back to 1776, when one of his ancestors became New Jersey’s first leader after the United States declared independence. His great-grandfather was a senator, his grandfather was a congressman, and his father was a governor.

But family lineage may not be enough to protect Kean in this year’s midterm elections. The Republican congressman is among the most threatened members of his party as Democrats attempt to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and regain control of the House of Representatives.

If Kean and other Republicans in competitive races fail to hold on to their seats, it will be the first sign that a blue wave is sweeping across the country.

Kean represents New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, a quaint mix of bedroom communities and farm towns perpetually on the front lines of American politics. Two previous incumbent presidents were ousted in midterm elections in the last decade: Kean beat Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022, after Malinowski beat Republican Leonard Lance in 2018.

“I don’t think Congressman Kean takes anything for granted,” Lance said. “It recognizes that this is a highly competitive district.”

The district has become slightly more Republican since it was redrawn nearly five years ago. Kean is counting on voters rewarding him for the tax cuts Trump signed into law last year.

Kean, however, risks finding himself grappling with other aspects of Trump’s agenda that have been unpopular in the region. The Republican administration wants to turn a local warehouse into an immigration detention center, something Democrats and a Republican-controlled city council filed Friday. Additionally, Trump attempted to cancel a new rail tunnel that would make travel to New York easier.

Kean is keeping a low profile, sticking to virtual events rather than town hall meetings that can devolve into arguments with angry voters. But Kean is unlikely to avoid Trump’s shadow in a district that includes the president’s golf club in Bedminster, and the congressman seems to know it. Kean pinned a post to a social media account thanking the president for his support.

“Career politician” or a “voter trust” guy?

Since Democrat Bill Clinton was president more than three decades ago, the party that controls the White House has lost control of the House in midterm elections. This political circle of life has lawmakers like Kean trying to hold on when there’s no race for the White House to generate more enthusiasm at the polls.

This year, Kean is one of 44 lawmakers Democrats hope to oust, which is more than enough to give them a majority. The Democratic field in Kean’s district remains unsettled, with a half-dozen candidates vying for the June 2 primary. Democrats are already attacking him over Trump’s tariffs, the rail tunnel and the proposed immigration detention center.

Kean said he was working on a “workable solution” for the facility.

“Career politician Tom Kean Jr. has come to represent everything people hate about a broken and corrupt Washington,” said Eli Lake, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Republicans said they could defy history and save Kean’s seat.

“Voters trust Kean Jr. because they know his record and they are ready to send him back to Washington,” said Maureen O’Toole, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Campaign Committee.

Kean’s spokesperson did not respond to requests for an interview.

Tax cuts at the heart of Kean’s speech

Kean is framing his re-election on a powerful and recurring issue in New Jersey politics: property taxes, which are among the highest in the country. Trump’s signature domestic legislation, a package of spending and tax cuts, expanded the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT.

Some Republicans have been reluctant to make the change, complaining that it would help subsidize blue states, where costs are high. But it was a high priority for lawmakers in competitive seats.

“Congressman Kean has proven himself to be an independent leader who delivers on his promises in his district,” said campaign consultant Harrison Neely. “He was the cornerstone of the coalition that fully restored the SALT deduction for middle-class families, providing significant tax relief. »

Deductions were capped at $10,000 under a law Trump signed during his first term, but the new law raised the limit to $40,000. It will eventually drop to $10,000 in 2030.

Kean’s supporters say the tax change, even temporary, will help address affordability concerns.

“Having the ability to deduct your property taxes is a huge benefit for homeowners,” said Douglas Thomson, who runs New Jersey Realtors.

Do not “broadcast tweets”

Another challenge for Kean has been the controversy surrounding the Gateway Tunnel, which will add new rail lines under the Hudson River to ease traffic congestion.

Trump attempted to block federal funding, which would have been a setback for commuters in cities like those Kean represents. A judge ordered the administration to return funds intended for the project last month after Democratic leaders from New Jersey and New York addressed the court.

Greg Lalevee, business manager for International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825, said Kean has been helpful behind the scenes.

“I don’t see him posting tweets,” he said, unlike “someone who just needs attention.”

Kean’s family lineage is well known in the district. His father, Tom Kean, was a moderate Republican governor who later headed the 9/11 Commission.

Mark Oliver, a retired architect, said he thought the elder Kean would be considered a Democrat by today’s standards. Today, the party has changed.

But he also acknowledged the significant Republican presence in the district, saying that “you see the Trump registrations on the farms….”

He plans to support the eventual Democratic nominee because “the rich have so much power and influence that needs to be balanced.”

Democrats criticize Kean for not holding in-person public meetings.

In 2018, midway through Trump’s first term, Lance’s events drew criticism of the president that sometimes drowned out the soft-spoken congressman. When asked if he would do them again, Lance said he would.

“Each of us must determine for ourselves the best way to reach voters,” he said.