China is leading the charge to nuclear Armageddon – and Starmer barely noticed | Simon Tisdall
KStarmer’s tentative pivot to the Dragon’s Throne worked well in Beijing, but not in Trumpland. This is partly because, like other needy Western leaders, the British prime minister did not dwell on sensitive subjects such as human rights abuses, the Jimmy Lai travesty, espionage and Taiwan. But in discussions with President Xi Jinping, one vital issue was completely avoided and should not have been: China’s dangerous, unexplained, secret and rapid construction of nuclear weapons.
More than the climate crisis, world hunger, Kaiser Trump’s Prussian militarism and the ever-present threat of a pandemic, the uncontrolled proliferation of weapons of mass destruction poses the most immediate existential threat to humanity. Last week, the Doomsday Clock moved forward 85 seconds to midnight – closer than ever to Armageddon. “Nuclear and other global risks are increasing rapidly and in unprecedented ways,” clock watchers warned, via the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Nuclear disarmament diplomacy has stalled globally. Consensus on future collective action is once again expected to elude the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in New York in April. On Thursday, New Start, the latest arms control treaty limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces, will expire. Meanwhile, a frightening international nuclear arms race rages out of control, as detailed in the 2025 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
Nearly all nine nuclear-armed states – the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – are pursuing “intensive nuclear modernization programs,” Sipri reported, including new weapons such as hypersonic missiles and low-yield “usable” tactical nuclear weapons. Nuclear testing could soon resume. “Of the total global inventory of approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads as of January 2025, approximately 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use,” Sipri said. Among them, the United States and Russia own about 90%.
With around 600 nuclear warheads, China is lagging behind – but it is quickly catching up. “China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than that of any other country, by about 100 new nuclear warheads per year since 2023… [It] could potentially have at least as many ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] like Russia or the United States by the end of the decade,” Sipri calculated. Beijing offers no explanation or justification for this spectacular surge – and rejects multilateral arms control negotiations.
An official white paper, released by China in November, reaffirmed its position that countries with the largest nuclear arsenals must take the first step, unilaterally making “drastic and substantial reductions.” Until then, he said, China will maintain its own nuclear capabilities “at the minimum level required for national security.” The newspaper conveniently failed to specify what this level is.
China’s criticism that the United States and others are ignoring its NPT commitment to pursue disarmament is accurate, if hypocritical. He is on firmer ground when he expresses objections to Donald Trump’s proposed Greenland-linked Golden Dome multi-layer missile shield project, which could, if it ever materializes, dangerously disrupt the balance of terror.
Despite its current advantages, the United States is worried. The Pentagon warned in December that China’s “historic military buildup has left America increasingly vulnerable.” He highlighted what he called a more attack-ready, more “rapid-onset” nuclear posture, and said about 100 ICBMs had recently been installed in silos in northern China. He also said Beijing was testing its ability “to strike U.S. forces in the Pacific,” which could cripple future U.S. military assistance to Taiwan. “China hopes to be able to wage and win a war against Taiwan by the end of 2027,” the Pentagon said.
What is Xi doing? China’s nuclear policy may just be a matter of status. Maybe Xi just wants to match (or surpass) the United States and Russia. Maybe he’s really afraid of being attacked. He told Starmer that the “rampant” powers, i.e. Trump, were following “the law of the jungle”. Or perhaps, given his heritage, Xi believes a show of nuclear force (or worse) could help him conquer Taiwan and realize his ambition of making China the first superpower.
Xi has gained influence worthy of an emperor after 13 years at the top. But he is also an insecure, fallible and unimaginative politician who is not immune to global trends and pressures. On one hand, it sees Trump’s United States modernizing its nuclear weapons, destroying key arms control agreements such as the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and attacking non-nuclear Iran and Venezuela on a whim. On the other hand, he sees an ally and fellow dictator, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, threatening the West with nuclear war as he attempts to illegally seize Ukraine. It must be tempting to follow this example.
It is also worrying to suspect that, despite appearances, Xi does not fully control China’s armed forces. Last week’s sensational dismissal of General Zhang Youxia, just behind him in the military hierarchy, remains a mystery. Zhang, a grizzled veteran, is reportedly accused of disloyalty to his less war-experienced boss and of leaking nuclear secrets to the United States.
Is it possible that the two men are at odds over Xi’s decidedly divisive nuclear and Taiwan policies? Xi had previously purged rocket force commanders, but he still appears to be struggling to bring generals back into line. In an echo of the Cold War, Dr. Strangelove’s disconcerting question returns: whose finger is on the button?
Regardless of what China’s president thinks, these are alarming times for anyone worried about global thermonuclear war – and that should be the case for everyone. Starmer’s talks with Xi reportedly included Chinese threats to UK national security. What greater threat is there than the proliferation of nuclear weapons? However, to our knowledge, he did not raise the issue.
Starmer’s silence is not surprising. Under his leadership, the UK is also expanding its nuclear strike force by purchasing nuclear-capable US F-35A fighter jets. And it appears he would allow the United States to store nuclear bombs at RAF Lakenheath for the first time in 20 years. Britain is in no position to criticize. On the contrary, his tacit message to Xi is clear: bomb!
