Why ACC is struggling to make an argument for CFP bid as top teams falter again

Will the best team in the ACC rise? In fact, if you’re out there, go ahead and give the College Football Playoff selection committee a thumbs up, too.

No. 14 Virginia and No. 15 Louisville – the league’s two torchbearers in the first College Football Playoff Rankings — lost Saturday night to Wake Forest and Cal, respectively, sending the ACC Championship Race in greater distress over time.

No. 17 Georgia Tech was inactive after its first loss of the season at NC State, while No. 18 Miami faced Syracuse after falling outside the top 10 following its second loss in three weeks.

It was so disappointing for Louisville against Cal that a chorus of boos rained down from the Cardinals’ home fans at the end of regulation after a possession started at midfield in the final seconds of the fourth quarter went nowhere. In overtime, Louisville was called for a cutting block on its first possession that erased a first down and led to a field goal before Cal won it on fourth-and-goal with a touchdown pass from freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele.

The stats indicate the league is mixed at best this season, punctuated by a 5-4 Duke team – losing 37-34 at UConn in Week 11 – still having a chance to reach the league title game with a few wins the rest of the month.

How did we get here after Florida State opened with a win over Alabama and Clemson nearly knocked off LSU to climb into the top 15 before the wheels came off for both?

The selection committee ranked three Big 12 teams ahead of the top-ranked ACC team in this week’s initial poll and placed Notre Dame, which lost to Miami in the season opener, eight spots ahead of the Hurricanes despite having the same record.

It’s clear the selection committee doesn’t like the ACC this season. And that should come as no surprise.

There are five automatic qualifiers in the 12-team playoff bracket – the five highest-ranked conference champions based on the selection committee’s final top 25. Theoretically, if there is a Group of Five team – or more teams – ranked higher than the ACC winner at the end of the season, they would be alongside the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 champions.

Virginia’s strength of schedule before Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest was 85th nationally, just behind Georgia Tech. Louisville’s roster was 56th and Miami’s was considered the best in the conference at 28th. The Hurricanes also rank seventh in game control after their win over Syracuse, but they are too far behind the current pack at 18th in the standings.

For comparison, the seven SEC teams still in playoff contention rank 25th or better in strength of schedule and in the Big Ten, the average strength of schedule for the six teams expected to be ranked Tuesday is 35.1.

Say what you want, but who you play matters and strength of schedule is supposed to matter more this season than ever in the eyes of the selection committee.

The argument is easy for another addition from the SEC or Big Ten taking the ACC’s perceived one-offer lock, but SOS is a dilemma for members of the Group of Five. There are currently six teams competing for the title Automatic bidding for Group of Five playoffs — North Texas, Navy, USF, Tulane, James Madison and San Diego State.

Neither team was ranked by the selection committee in the first poll, but one could make a case for 12-win Sun Belt champion JMU or 12-win Mountain West champion San Diego State as a better option than what the ACC might end up with on the podium in Charlotte the first weekend in December.

JMU would be on an 11-game winning streak with its lone loss coming at Louisville in Week 2, while San Diego State would also be on a comparable streak, including wins over five bowl-bound opponents if the Aztecs prevail.

Leading the ACC standings after Week 11

Virginia has three overtime wins this season against Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina. And that’s part of what apparently made the CV stand out from the rest during the conference at the selection committee last week.

“Look, if you win, it’s positive. Wins matter. And if you lose, we evaluate what type of loss it is,” selection committee chairman Mack Rhoades said last week. “Again, Virginia, that’s a great overtime win, when you’re talking about going on the road and beating a quality – a really well-coached Louisville team. Virginia is a really good football team. Coach Scott has done a great job. Again, they have more games to play.”

Georgia Tech could close the book on any noise regarding whether or not the ACC deserves a bid to its champion if the Yellow Jackets lead the table. That would include wins over two ranked teams in Pitt and Georgia, and likely another top-25 team in the league title game.

If Brent Key’s team succeeds in this challenge, they will be in the group and perhaps even receive a home match in the first round. What’s more likely is more unpredictability in the conference through the end of the month, with perceived favorites dropping and several teams tied at the top with multiple losses heading into the final weekend of the campaign.