Why Hurricane Melissa Could Be the Worst Storm to Ever Hit Jamaica

Why Hurricane Melissa could be the worst storm ever to hit Jamaica

By Andrea Thompson

As Category 5 Hurricane Melissa bears down on Jamaica, it is set to become the worst storm ever to hit the Caribbean island, surpassing the damage caused by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

Gilbert, which hit Jamaica as a Category 4 hurricane, sent a 19-foot storm surge to the island’s east coast and brought torrential rain and destructive winds. It killed 49 people, destroyed 100,000 homes and caused $700 million in damage, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Melissa, however, is much stronger and will strike in a direction that could expose more coastline to waves. And its movement is slower, which means that Jamaica will be subject to the storm’s onslaughts, including torrential rains, for longer.

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“It’s going to be a lot worse than Gilbert,” says Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University who studies hurricanes.

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Jamaica is no stranger to storms, but it has only been directly impacted by five major storms (those category 3 or higher), according to the best available historical records, dating back to the late 19th century. All of these major storms were either Category 3 or Category 4 – we don’t know of any in recorded history that hit the island as Category 5.

And Melissa is in rarefied company, even among already rare Category 5 storms – it’s unusually intense for an Atlantic basin hurricane. As of Tuesday morning, its maximum sustained winds reach 185 miles per hour, making it one of the most intense hurricanes ever measured in the Atlantic. Gilbert’s winds reached 130 mph when it collided with Jamaica.

Even if Melissa weakens a bit before making landfall in Jamaica, it will still be an exceptionally strong storm, and the fact that it’s hitting from the south means it’s heading toward a longer coastline than Gilbert with its easterly approach. The national capital, Kingston, is on its southern shore.

The surge from Melissa is expected to reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, but exactly where it will focus will depend on the storm’s exact track. Even small deviations could make a big difference in where the strongest winds and waves hit. The further Melissa drifts west before making a sharp turn northeast, the less likely it is that major populated areas in the eastern half of the country, like Kingston, will see the worst of the surge.

And then there’s the fact that Melissa moves at a pace of between 3 and 5 mph, compared to Gilbert’s more typical 12 mph. “It barely moves,” says Klotzbach, which means the winds, waves and rain will last an extremely long time. In fact, “they’ve been getting rain for days from this storm,” Klotzbach said, as the weather system has drifted toward the south of the island. Most of Jamaica is expected to receive more than a foot of rain, and a large area is expected to receive up to 30 inches of rain. Some places could see up to 40 inches. This amount of rain can be catastrophic, especially in Jamaica’s hilly terrain, where it can cause flash floods and landslides.

The Jamaican government has ordered mandatory evacuations in some flood-prone areas, according to the Jamaica Observerand utilities plan their restoration efforts once the storm passes. “A category four hurricane that could pass through the middle of our island could cause unprecedented damage to our facilities,” said Hugh Grant, general manager of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS), during a press briefing on Sunday, according to the Jamaica Observer. “Here at JPS it will likely be a rebuild and not just a restoration.”

Editor’s Note (10/28/25): This article was edited after publication to update Hurricane Melissa’s wind speeds.

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