Why the Epstein scandal is the most perilous moment yet for U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer

LONDON — Keir Starmer faces what could be the most precarious moment of his tenure as British prime minister, as the global scandal surrounding Jeffrey Epstein envelops his government.

Weakened by record approval ratings, policy U-turns and cost-of-living pressures, and with support shifting to far-right challengers, Starmer’s leadership was already under severe strain, but analysts say the latest revelations could further undermine his authority and raise serious questions about his judgment.

Peter Mandelson, a longtime politician, is under police investigation over his ties to the late Epstein, including allegations that he shared sensitive information with the convicted sex offender while he was a minister nearly two decades ago.

Starmer said last week that he was aware of Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein when he appointed him ambassador to the United States in December 2024, but that Mandelson had “repeatedly lied” about the extent of his past contact with the disgraced financier.

Starmer apologized to victims for “believing Mandelson’s lies” and said the former minister had “betrayed our country” in his dealings with Epstein.

Police searched both of Mandelson’s homes Friday. The searches were “related to an ongoing investigation into misconduct in connection with public office offences,” a Metropolitan Police statement said. No arrests were made and, in keeping with British police convention, Mandelson was not named in the statement.

The scandal has piled pressure on Starmer as the controversy destabilizes his party and threatens to shatter its already fragile promise of a stable, scandal-free government. Just over 18 months after his Labor government won a landslide victory, analysts say Starmer is now fighting for his political future.

“This appears to be another example of Starmer’s lack of political judgment and poor decision-making,” Peter Dorey, a professor of politics at Cardiff University, told NBC News. “This is the most serious yet.”

Conservative opposition leader Kemi Badenoch called Starmer’s position “untenable”, while the centrist Liberal Democrats called for a confidence vote to test Labor lawmakers’ support for Starmer, some of whom question whether he can stay in power.

A small number of Labor MPs, largely critics of Starmer, have called for him to leave. Neil Duncan-Jordan told the BBC on Friday that a “reset” required “changing who is in charge”, while Rachael Maskell told the channel it was “inevitable” that he would have to resign.

Mandelson was dismissed as Britain’s ambassador to the United States in September after revelations about his friendship with Epstein. Last Sunday, he resigned from the party after the latest release of files by the US Department of Justice.

But the documents continue to reveal the full extent of the relationship between Mandelson and Epstein, showing a man who pressured his own government while alerting Epstein to key decisions to come.

“I am working to make changes,” Mandelson, then the business secretary, wrote to Epstein in December 2009 about a proposed tax on bankers’ bonuses, according to the released documents. “The Treasury is searching, but I am sure [the] case.”

He also appears to have leaked an internal economic report on assets the government thought it could sell. Mandelson forwarded it to Epstein with the added line: “Interesting note that was sent to the Prime Minister.” »

Mandelson has previously denied knowledge of Epstein’s crimes and has denied any wrongdoing linked to him. In a statement last week, he reiterated his apologies “to the women and girls whose voices should have been heard long before now.” Its representatives did not respond to a request for additional comment.

Starmer has promised to release records relating to Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador, which he said would prove that Mandelson lied about the extent of his friendship with Epstein during his selection for the job.

But critics say Starmer’s decision to pursue Mandelson’s nomination, even with partial knowledge of his relationship with Epstein, raises serious questions about his decision-making.

“Either Starmer failed to have Mandelson fully ‘examined’ before appointing him, or Starmer was aware of Mandelson’s former association with Epstein but appointed him anyway,” Dorey said. “Either would constitute a serious error of judgment on Starmer’s part.”

The saga has proven particularly deadly given Starmer’s promise of a stable, scandal-free government after numerous corruption scandals that beset the previous Conservative government.

The prime minister “was chosen by his party and by voters because he supposedly embodied probity and competence,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “After that, he can’t even claim those qualities.”

Mandelson was a controversial figure before his appointment as ambassador, having He twice resigned from government during the last Labor administration over breaches of the ministerial code and accusations of financial misconduct.

Despite this, Mandelson was chosen for the United Kingdom’s most prestigious diplomatic role after the election of Donald Trump, in part because of “his past and his connections to very wealthy people,” Jamie Gaskarth, professor of foreign policy and international relations at the Open University, told NBC News.

“It paid off initially because of Starmer’s friendly relationship with President Trump,” he added, “but in the long run, these kinds of character issues came back to haunt him. »

Olivia O’Sullivan, UK director of the global program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, echoed Gaskarth’s comments, noting that Starmer’s government had appointed someone “whom they thought could run this universe” in Mandelson.

“It ended up backfiring on them, actually,” she added.

Despite the deadly scandal, Starmer is unlikely to be ousted immediately, experts say, with his main potential successors all facing difficulties that could hamper a leadership challenge.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting is facing scrutiny over his own past links to Mandelson, while Starmer’s former deputy Angela Rayner remains under investigation over her tax affairs. Manchester’s popular Labor mayor Andy Burnham was recently denied the chance to stand for Parliament, preventing him from challenging Starmer.

“A lot of Starmer’s obvious replacements find themselves in quite awkward positions,” said Andrew Barclay, professor of politics at the University of Sheffield. This contributes to creating a “false sense of security” among the Prime Minister, he added.

With local elections approaching in May, where Labor is expected to perform poorly, Starmer’s potential rivals may not be keen to trigger an immediate leadership contest.

“There are several types of structural factors that are keeping him in place at the moment,” Barclay added, “but I am extremely doubtful that this will save his prime ministership in the long term.”

Dorey, from Cardiff University, agrees, saying “the lack of better alternatives” would keep it safe for now.

“Starmer is likely to remain Labor leader and prime minister for the foreseeable future – but with his political authority and credibility seriously weakened,” he said.