Why Vladimir Putin may be the big winner from Trump’s Iran war
Oil prices are soaring and America’s attention and military resources have turned squarely to the Middle East.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may have lost another Kremlin-friendly leader, but the war in Iran could prove a long-term boon for his country, whose economy depends on energy exports.
“So far there is only one winner in this war: Russia,” European Council President António Costa said on Tuesday while addressing ambassadors in Brussels on the Middle East conflict.
“He is gaining new resources to finance his war against Ukraine as energy prices rise,” Costa said. “It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Ukraine. And it profits from reduced attention to the Ukrainian front while the conflict in the Middle East takes center stage.”
Although oil prices have fallen since hitting a high on Sunday not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have remained high as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping channels, bordered to the north by Iran and crucial to global energy supplies, remained virtually at a standstill.
Iran said it would “set fire” to ships trying to pass through the narrow waterway, but small traffic continued.
At a meeting in the Kremlin on Monday, Putin told policymakers, ministers and business leaders that it was “important for Russian energy companies to seize the moment.”
He also suggested that the European Union, which is seeking to move away from dependence on Russian energy, should rethink towards “stable and long-term cooperation” with Moscow.
Russian media were flooded Monday and Tuesday with headlines and analyzes on the consequences of soaring oil prices on the country, but also on its Western adversaries. “Strike in the East: the price of oil could exceed 150 dollars,” headlined the pro-government Russian newspaper Izvestia.
Separately, pro-Kremlin TV host Olga Skabeyeva joked Tuesday that people in neighboring NATO country Estonia had to walk because public transportation was already running out of fuel.
After Putin’s meeting Monday, President Donald Trump appeared to give him another gift by suggesting his administration lift sanctions on “certain countries” to stabilize the oil market.
He did not specify which countries might have their sanctions lifted, but his comments came shortly after a call with Putin, the first since December.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that lifting sanctions had not been discussed “in detail.”
How much Russia benefits from the oil crisis will depend on how long the conflict in the Middle East lasts, several analysts told NBC News.
If it only lasts a few weeks, the effect could be minimal, but if the conflict drags on for months, the Russian economy could get a much bigger boost, said Petras Katinas, a climate, energy and defense researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
The discount at which Russia trades its oil to offset the risk of running into U.S. sanctions has declined since the start of the Iran crisis, Katinas said in a telephone interview Monday. “The longer prices last, the more Russia will be able to sell its crude oil on the global market at a lower discount,” he added.
This increase in oil revenues would likely give Putin new revenue for his war effort in Ukraine, a huge expense that has drained the Russian economy, according to James Henderson of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
“No one would be surprised if military spending increased as a result of this,” Henderson said. “More money will be available and therefore, by default, more money will be available for military spending. That’s certainly an unfortunate consequence.”
It comes at a delicate time for peace negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, which appear to be stalled as the Trump administration has shifted its focus to Iran and the Middle East.
As Ukraine’s air defense missile stockpiles run out, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that every air defense missile used to protect U.S. assets and bases in the Middle East was draining U.S. resources that could have been available to Ukraine, representing another victory for the Kremlin.
However, diverting Trump’s attention away from Ukraine could be a double-edged sword for Russia, according to John Lough, foreign policy official at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, a Washington and London-based think tank that focuses on Russia.
“It was very helpful to the Russians that Trump was pushing Zelensky into a corner and trying to extract concessions from him,” Lough said. “In many ways, Trump has been a source of support for them,” he added. “I think they need to accept that it’s irrelevant to them.”
The conflict in the Middle East has also highlighted Russia’s declining role in the region, Lough said.
Iran is a strategic partner of Russia, helping it equip its army in Ukraine with drones, and Putin on Monday offered his “unwavering support” to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader and son of its former head of state, Ali Khamenei, who was killed. the first day of the American-Israeli operation in Iran.
Russia has also provided intelligence to Iran on the location of U.S. forces in the Middle East, four sources familiar with the matter told NBC News on Friday, although the Kremlin has not officially said it would provide military or intelligence assistance to Iran.
“This is another humiliation for the Russians,” Lough said. “They have proven themselves to be actors who are irrelevant and have no influence,” he added. “So they’ve had to sit back and watch this, and I’m sure it’s extremely unpleasant for them.”
