Why war with Iran may not deliver the normalization Israel hopes for

The Iranian military offensive will be clear proof of the failure of the Gulf states’ policy of containment towards Iran, said Ohad Merlin, Middle East expert at MIND Israel.

Since the outbreak of the recent Iran-Israel war, some analysts have suggested that the confrontation could push Gulf states toward normalization with the Jewish state.

This argument rests on the idea that Iran’s unprecedented attacks on its neighbors – such as strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman – could lead those countries to ally with Israel in a united front against the Islamic regime.

“The fact that Iran has completely lost control and started shooting in all directions could serve as an important platform for strengthening relations between Israel and its neighbors,” said Ohad Merlin, Middle East expert at MIND Israel. The Jerusalem Post last week.

He argued that the Iranian military offensive would constitute clear evidence of the failure of the Gulf states’ policy of containment towards Iran and that “Iran is now seen as the destabilizing force, after two years in which it was fashionable to blame Israel in the Gulf.”

This argument has merit; a shared security interest, the perception of Iran as a common threat, and the precedent of the Abraham Accords could all be factors that theoretically propel normalization.

However, this analysis largely neglects the deep reservoir of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiments within Gulf societies. Just because these countries may develop antipathy toward Iran does not mean they will soften their policies toward Israel. And even in cases where governments cooperate quietly with Israel (or by proxy for the United States), public opinion often remains extremely hostile.

Gulf public opinion still blocks Israel’s normalization

Gulf states could also develop resentment toward Israel and the United States, which are dragging them into a war they never wanted. In fact, one could argue that much of the push for normalization before the Iran conflict came from the idea of ​​an alliance against a common enemy. However, now that conflict is a reality, not just a possibility, and Iran is weakened, the push for normalization as a security imperative may no longer hold.

According to the Arab Opinion Index, 87% of respondents oppose recognition of Israel, while only 6% say they would accept it.

Despite Israeli normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, the percentage of those supporting recognition of Israel fell by two percentage points in 2024/25 compared to 2022/23.

Libya and Jordan have the highest levels of opposition to normalization (96% and 95%, respectively), followed by Kuwait (94%), Palestine (91%), Lebanon, Morocco and Qatar (89% each).

In Saudi Arabia, support for relations with Israel fell to around 20% during the Gaza war, while 96% favored ending Arab ties with Israel.

Zionism, or general support for Israel, is also still considered something of a curse word in Arab society. There has been a significant increase in condemnation in Arab media and on social media of the UAE as a “Zionist Arab” state.

Yemeni, Saudi and North African media all published articles calling the UAE a treacherous “Zionist” state.

In fact, the Arab Journal claims that these countries are being targeted by Iran because of “their growing involvement in the Zionist-US conspiracy.”

The former Tunisian foreign minister said: “The UAE has paid the price for its strategic alliance with Israel and its transformation into a forward Hebrew military and financial base in the heart of the Gulf. Today, they taste some of the poison that they made other Arab and Islamic countries drink through arrogance, wealth, injustice and lawless aggression.

The American Jewish Committee expressed concern over Arab social media posts “that appear to sow misunderstanding and division among U.S. allies in the Arabian Gulf, undermine the Abraham Accords, and promote conspiracy narratives about Israel and the Jews.”

“Attempts to characterize the UAE as acting on behalf of Israel or ‘Zionists’ are false, dishonorable and distract from the real strategic choices facing the region. »

These examples highlight how sentiment on the ground remains deeply unfavorable to both the idea of ​​normalization and the concept of a Jewish state in general.

It is also worth noting that the Abraham Accords were driven more by diplomatic agreements between the upper echelons of wealthy politicians and changemakers than by popular peace. While the Gulf monarchies have continued discreet cooperation with Israel (security, intelligence, technology), public opinion itself has remained skeptical or hostile.

Moreover, the ongoing war has shown that cultural narratives go beyond opposition to Israeli policies. Anti-Jewish religious rhetoric and conspiracy narratives are widespread.

Thousands of messages on X in Arabic, in the last day alone, accuse the Jews of being responsible for the war.

“The enemies of Islam are the Jews and the war is clearly between infidelity and Islam,” one of them reads.

“Everyone always knew that the Jews were the cause of discord,” reads another. “To live, there is no other alternative than to cut off the head of the Zionist-American serpent.”

“Muslims are being killed in Iran, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. This is the war of the Jews and the Americans, and we are in the middle. They are hitting us so that Muslims will fight each other,” reads a third.

Conspiracy narratives, such as Jews controlling the media or global finance, or Jews orchestrating regional conflicts, are proliferating. And these narratives blur the line between anti-Israel politics and anti-Semitic mythology, making it impossible to distinguish between the two.

Thus, although elites view Israel as a strategic partner against Iran, the public often views Israel as a greater threat or moral enemy. This creates a strategic dilemma for Gulf leaders.

For example, polls show that only about 20 percent of Saudis support cooperation with Israel against Iran; therefore, for Saudi Arabia to move towards normalization, it would have to directly attack the vast majority of its population.

And given the overwhelming distrust of Jews and Israelis, they may not want to take that risk.

True normalization is unlikely as long as societal barriers of anti-Israel and anti-Semitic narratives that present Israel and Jews as existential enemies persist.

Normalization in the Gulf is ultimately a geopolitical project imposed from above, not societal reconciliation, and if it were the latter, it is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

As long as public discourse continues to present Israel, and often Jews themselves, as existential enemies, the assumption that regional war will naturally produce normalization may prove overly optimistic.