Will SCOTUS Rig the House?

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Will SCOTUS Rig the House?

I read a collective email from Capitol Hill yesterday essentially predicting the extinction of the Democratic Party after what is expected to be a Supreme Court decision striking down what remains of the Voting Rights Act. A less apocalyptic but still daunting version of this argument appeared in an evening article published by Nate Cohn in the Times. Before we get into the partisan implications and vote counting, let’s first discuss what this means, which is to end the political representation of African Americans in the states of the former Confederacy. Most, if not all, majority-minority districts disappear, and Republican state legislatures are free to create districts that distribute/dilute African American voters into safe Republican districts. Cohn thinks it’s plausible that Democrats will permanently (as much as anything can be permanent) lose 12 House seats. And that’s on top of the severe restrictions that are being enforced in a number of states across the country. The overall scenario is one in which the House becomes an even bigger electoral challenge than the Senate, one that is winnable, but only in generational wave elections.

Is this plausible? Is this true?

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