Will Trump’s megabill help Democrats win the House? : NPR

The chief of the Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., minority head, as well as the Democratic Caucus of the Chamber, come together on the Capitol marches to relax against the bill on tax alternatives and expenses of President Trump on July 2.

Demetrius Freeman / The Washington Post via Getty Images

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Demetrius Freeman / The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Democrats believe that the massive bill and expense of President Trump gives them an opening – and a message – before the mid -term elections of 2026.

The objective is Medicaid, which provides health insurance to tens of millions of low -income and elderly Americans and affordability.

The head of the minority of the Hakeem Jeffries Chamber, in a speech of several hours in opposition to the bill on Thursday, called him “cruel” and “dangerous”. He, like other Democrats, focused on the nearly $ 1 billion of Medicaid cups, an effort to partially compensate for the billions of dollars in the extension of Trump’s tax reduction will cost.

“This bill represents the greatest reduction in health care in American history,” said Jeffries. “It is a total assault against the health care of the American people.”

Trump begins his own email campaign on what could be the only one, signing the legislation for his second term.

“The only big magnificent matter is a question of growth,” wrote Trump on social networks this week. “If it has passed, America will have an economic renaissance like never before.”

Trump organized an event in Iowa Thursday evening, one day before independence day. He was complete with fireworks, and he launched a one -year celebration of the country’s 250th anniversary that the administration calls “America250”. He also promoted legislation.

“There cannot be a better birthday gift for America than the phenomenal victory we made just a few hours ago,” said Trump about the adoption of the bill.

Trump pointed out that he was ready to hit the tracking track for legislation – and he did not hide his disdain for the Democrats because none voted for this.

“I think we are going to use it in the arriving campaign-halfway through, because we have to beat them,” he said, adding, “but all the things we have given and they would not vote, only because they hate Trump-but I hate them too. You know it? I really do it.”

The Republicans are on the rear foot with regard to this bill.

The survey has shown that more people are opposed to supporting the bill. But, as the White House points out, arrangements such as work requirements for Medicaid obtain more support.

Thus, a large part of politics, as usual, will be summed up with the way in which the argument is framed.

An obstacle for the Republicans here, however, is that it is difficult to assert a negative – that without the adoption of the bill, people would see an increase in tax.

It is not quite the same as to say, Everyone receives a tax reduction!

In addition, Medicaid cuts will be tangible for many people. According to Kff, nearly 7 out of 10 say that a family member, a family member or a close friend, was covered by the program.

Medicaid, like other social security net programs, is also very popular. Kff found:

• 83% have a favorable opinion on the program;
• 82% want to see the financing of augmented Medicaid or remain the same;
• 69% said they thought the program works well for most low -income people;
• 66% of the States of States which have not expanded the coverage of Medicaid want to see it expanded in their state;
• 62% consider Medicaid as mainly a government health insurance program as opposed to a social protection program. A majority of Republicans, however, said they saw him as a social protection program.

President Trump signs his huge tax bill and his expense discounts at the White House on July 4 in Washington, surrounded by members of the Congress.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP

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Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP

There are also largely contained, but incorrect opinions on the program. For example:

• 62% believe that most adults in the working age on Medicaid are unemployed, including three quarters of Trump 2024 voters and half of the Democrats;
• Almost half believe that immigrants in the country without permanent legal status are on Medicaid, even if it is not true. And a similar percentage also wrongly believes that immigrants without permanent legal status are eligible for the program.

Republicans continue to assert that they aim “waste, fraud and abuse”, but nearly 12 million people should lose their health insurance in the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a non -partisan staff group that provides an analysis to support the legislative process.

Health care was a salient problem in mid-term elections.

In 2010, the Democrats lost control of the Chamber – and 63 seats – in part because of the conservative anger of the Act respecting affordable care. In the summer of 2010 during the TEA Party fervor summit, only 35% had a favorable vision of health care legislation.

But once former President Obama left the White House, the ACA has regularly become more popular. In fact, in February 2017, the month after the departure of Obama, the views of the law went from the net negative to a positive net and did not become more favorable, according to the KFF monitoring survey.

Last month, he reached his highest favorability rating of all time – 66%.

Health care has become a problem in the 2018 mid-term elections, this time helping Democrats win back control of the chamber. He made eight years in the late dramatic thumbs and end of evening of the Arizona senator on the Senate soil, voting against the attempt of his republican colleagues to repeal the ACA.

This actually killed the GOP attempts to undo law.

Democrats also hope to benefit from the unpopularity of the Republicans, but they have their own problems.

Trump has only 43% approval in the latest NPR / PBS News / Marist survey. On the economy, Trump receives only 39%approval, lower than any score he received during his first mandate on the issue.

Congress Republicans receive only a 35%approval rating.

But Congress Democrats are even less popular. Only 27% said they approved the post that the Democrats in the Congress were doing.

It is largely because of the Democrats themselves. Only 44% of Democrats declared approving the Democrats of the Congress.

It is a huge 30 points less than what the Republicans think of the Republicans in the Congress.

The last time the Democrats were considered negatively in the Marist poll, it was 2018, the same year that the Democrats won the Chamber.

The question is whether the Democrats rally rally in advance on the environment, as they did, or if the dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party means something deeper in their ranks and leads the Republicans to hold close control of the Chamber.

So, if the Democrats want to win the room, they will first have to put their own house.