Without Harry Kane, England’s chances at the World Cup are slim
LONDON — There is a credible debate over whether England can win the World Cup with Harry Kane. The 1-0 home defeat to Japan on Tuesday strongly suggests that without him they have no chance.
Kane’s absence from the starting line-up is the result of a minor injury sustained during England’s final training session yesterday. The 32-year-old’s fitness is generally excellent, but nonetheless this is the sort of situation that could arise in what England hope will be a seven-match series at this summer’s tournament.
Before the start of Monday’s session, manager Thomas Tuchel spoke to the media and was asked if he had a clear idea of what to do if Kane was unavailable, having experimented with Dominic Solanke and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in Friday’s 1-1 draw against Uruguay.
He paused, laughed and said, “Good question…you’ve already seen my answer, I might not be close. I have some ideas, but I won’t make them public.”
England’s performance against Japan was also unconvincing. Instead of continuing with Solanke or Calvert-Lewin, he opted to play Phil Foden as a false nine with Cole Palmer operating in a central position and Morgan Rogers pushed to the right flank with Anthony Gordon on the other in a narrow shape.
Palmer’s most memorable contribution was giving the ball away for what proved to be the match-winning goal, a clever move started and finished by Kaoru Mitoma as Japan became the first Asian nation to beat England.
Foden’s palpable loss of confidence and form continued. England had 19 shots, but none of them came from Foden, who was substituted on the hour mark after just 22 touches. England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford recorded 39.
Tuchel’s reshuffle failed to wake England from its slumber. Solanke led the line, Rogers moved to #10 with Jarrod Bowen to play on the right. Marcus Rashford made a slight improvement when he replaced Gordon 19 minutes from time, but England’s late rally, a generous term for the minimum pressure they applied, came from set pieces as Harry Maguire and Dan Burn caused problems.
Japan’s inability to clear such a corner gave Lewis Hall the opportunity to test Zion Suzuki, but the visitors’ goalkeeper saved smartly low to his right.
It was one of four England shots on target on a night in which Ben White was booed before kick-off and the entire team was booed at full time by those still on the pitch. The vast majority of the 79,233 spectators had already left well before the end to return home.
Any side would miss Kane. He is arguably the best striker in world football right now – 53 goals in 45 appearances for Bayern Munich and England this season – and as captain his presence off the field is just as important in setting the standards England hope to achieve.
Since the start of the 2018 World Cup – where Kane would go on to win the Golden Boot – England have a winning record of 65% in 88 matches on debut. That number drops to 57% compared to 14 without him, but his absence seems much greater than those raw numbers suggest.
“In the absence of Harry Kane, we don’t have the same threat,” Tuchel said. “Bayern Munich, in the absence of Harry Kane, does not have the same threat. No team in the world has the same threat, that is simply normal.
“If the best teams and nations rely on the best players, that’s completely normal. On top of that, Harry dropped out, so we lost him not only as a player, but also as a personality. It’s always a bit disturbing if the captain leaves the last training session after 15 minutes and is left out of the team.
“We can win games without Harry, we will win games without Harry, we have won without Harry, but it is easier to win games with Harry.”
Yet the need for a viable alternative isn’t just due to injuries. Kane worked often as England reached the Euro 2024 final and the extreme heat conditions awaiting the United States this summer will likely put more emphasis on squad depth and rotation.
Ollie Watkins has been left out of this squad as Tuchel feels sufficiently aware of what the Aston Villa striker can bring to him. Solanke, Calvert-Lewin and Foden all failed to seize the opportunity presented to them during this international break.
Watkins therefore surely has a strong case to make the final 26-man squad, although the clamor in some quarters over veteran Brighton striker Danny Welbeck could intensify if he continues to perform in the Premier League – the 35-year-old is the highest-scoring Englishman in the division.
Tuchel was of course right to experiment here. The spectacle may have been disappointing, but the bigger picture is more important. There are flaws in this overall picture, however, not least England’s record against elite teams, which has long been a source of concern, even when they reached the finals of the last two European Championships.
England qualified for the World Cup on the back of a flawless qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches without conceding a goal. But they have now faced three top-20 nations under Tuchel: Senegal, Uruguay and Japan. Their record is one draw and two defeats.
These results can be explained by experimentation. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka will all return. But the point of this experimentation is to find solutions and it seems Tuchel is no closer to knowing how to cope without Kane as the World Cup seems ever closer on the horizon.
