Women’s March Madness Final Four, NCAA champion predictions
UConn enters the 2026 NCAA women’s tournament as the No. 1 overall seed. But were the Huskies the most popular choice to win the national championship among ESPN’s college basketball analysts?
Which team from each region will advance to Phoenix and the Final Four? And who will win the NCAA title? Before the first round begins Friday (11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2), our experts made their predictions.
The Huskies, who are six wins away from their 13th NCAA title and seventh perfect season, were the subject of a popular vote: UConn was selected as the Fort Worth Region 1 champion by the 22 voters. No other team was unanimously chosen by the Final Four, but the 1 seeds received a clear majority. South Carolina received 21 votes, Texas 19 and UCLA 15.
While half of voters chose the four No. 1 seeds to advance to the national semifinals, LSU, Duke, Michigan, Louisville and TCU also received at least one vote to reach Phoenix.
UConn was picked to win the national title on 13 ballots. 1-seeded UCLA (four), Texas (four), and South Carolina (one) were the only teams selected to win the championship.
Let’s review the experts’ picks – but first, let’s break down the range a little.
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Experts’ picks
What is the most difficult region?
Charlie Cream: With LSU, the No. 2 seed, and Duke, the best of the No. 3 seeds, plus UCLA, the No. 2 overall seed, simple math says it’s Sacramento 2. But as loaded as this region is, that doesn’t make the Bruins’ path any more difficult. They can play either the Tigers or the Blue Devils, not both. If the top seeds hold on through the first two rounds, LSU and Duke will face off before reaching UCLA.
Ole Miss is the team that could be a speed bump on the Bruins’ road to the Final Four. The No. 5 seed Rebels stumbled with four losses to end the regular season, but they were also good enough to beat Vanderbilt twice, Oklahoma and Notre Dame, and to play Texas within three points in Austin.
Michael Voepel: I agree that Sacramento 2 looks busy. But Fort Worth 3 could also be a challenge. No. 1 seed Texas will be close to home and competing in its SEC Tournament championship. But No. 4 seed West Virginia won the Big 12 tournament and No. 3 seed Louisville probably won the Big 12 tournament. should won the ACC tournament, but fell in overtime to Duke. Michigan didn’t play well in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals with a 59-42 loss to Iowa, who wore the Wolverines’ number this season. But Michigan is a dangerous team, so if the seeds hold, Fort Worth 3 could be compelling.
What a no-no. 1 seed has the best chance of winning it all?
Voice : All five of LSU’s losses have been against SEC teams, including two against South Carolina. What the Tigers learned from those losses could help them advance to the Elite Eight for the fourth straight year. If the seeds hold, then they should beat UCLA, Texas and either UConn or South Carolina for the championship. This seems extremely difficult. So why choose them to potentially do it? Guard play, led by Flau’jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams and MiLaysia Fulwiley. The Tigers have plenty of size, quickness and depth on the perimeter, and they have the highest scoring average (94.5 PPG) in Division I. Granted, they’ve put up a lot of points against inferior non-conference opponents. But their SEC scoring average was still 82.6, second in the SEC behind Vanderbilt. It will take a run from a team with lethal offensive potential to prevent one of the No. 1s from winning the championship. LSU could be that team.
Cream: It’s about the #1 seed’s vulnerability, so I’m picking #3 seed Louisville for a different reason. The No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns wouldn’t surprise anyone by winning the national championship. It is also the only high-level program that does not include 3-point shooting. Texas is last in the nation in 3-point rate and 344th in attempts from beyond the arc. In a close match, this opens the door for an underdog. The Cardinals, with their balance — seven players averaging between 8.3 and 11.4 points per game — and their ability to defend at a level at least comparable to Texas’ outstanding defense could give them a chance in a potential Elite Eight matchup. Another outstanding NCAA tournament coach is Jeff Walz, who has taken four teams to the Final Four and made five consecutive Elite Eights from 2018 to 2023 (no tournaments in 2020). Of course, that’s assuming Louisville even survives a potential regional semifinal with No. 2 seed Michigan, another team that could give Texas a run for its money. The Wolverines lost to UConn and UCLA by just three points.
Which first-round matchup are you most looking forward to?
Voice : On opening day of the season, November 4, NC State defeated Tennessee 80-77 in Greensboro, North Carolina. Both teams were then ranked in the AP top 10. On Friday, they will meet unseeded in Ann Arbor, Michigan, as the Nos. 7 and 10 seeds in the Fort Worth 3 Regional.
NC State went 20-10 and finished fourth in the ACC despite losing three senior starters from 2024-25. Tennessee also lost three starters, but had a tougher time. The Lady Vols went 16-13, finished in a four-way tie for sixth place in the SEC at 8-8 and enter the NCAA tournament on a seven-game losing streak. Tennessee went from a 6-0 start in SEC play to losing 10 of its last 12 games. That stretch included a 30-point non-conference loss to UConn and a 43-point loss to South Carolina, the worst loss in Tennessee history.
Will Tennessee end its losing streak and at least have some positive momentum to take from the tournament? Or will the season end in free fall? This will be an interesting rematch between two teams who couldn’t have guessed in November that they would be facing each other in the first round of the NCAA.
Cream: The winner will have to face UConn, so I’ll enjoy Iowa State and Syracuse while I can. The match between the two should be fun. Orange senior guard Dominique Darius would be better off being able to play, but a left hand injury suffered in the ACC tournament will keep her out. Darius going up against Iowa State point guard Jada Williams would have been intriguing, but the one-on-one collision that makes this play so appealing is in the message. Iowa State’s Audi Crooks, the nation’s second-leading scorer, faces ACC freshman Uche Izoje. At 6-3, Izoje has the length to give Crooks some problems, and she scores 15.5 points per game herself. Another individual battle that could decide the game is Addy Brown of the Cyclones and Laila Phelia of Syracuse.
Experts’ picks
