Yankees vs. Giants season-opening parlay: Aaron Judge chasing history

In Major League Baseball, there have only been 54 occasions where a player has hit 50 home runs in a season, and no one has done it five times. Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge has a chance to make it this season as the 2026 Major League Baseball campaign begins Wednesday night with Judge’s New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants in a Netflix special with a first pitch at 8:05 a.m. ET. This is the first live MLB game on the streaming service.

It’s no surprise that the Yankees have had the most 50-homer seasons against a player with 12, and Judge reached the magic milestone on September 24 last season against the White Sox, finishing with 54 bombs. He joined Babe Ruth (1920, 1921, 1927 and 1928), Mark McGwire (1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999) and Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001) as the only players to reach the 50 mark four times.

However, Judge didn’t even lead the AL as Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh led the majors with 58, while Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber led the NL with 56 and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers finished with 53. This was only the third season with four players reaching 50 with 1998 (Greg Vaughn, Ken Griffey Jr, McGwire and Sosa) and 2001 (Alex Rodriguez, Luis Gonzalez, Barry Bonds and Sosa).

Judge, the +215 favorite for another AL MVP, is given an Over/Under of 48.5 home runs this season at FanDuel but is a -110 favorite at DraftKings to reach 50. For 60, Judge is at +500. He is also the +350 favorite to lead the majors.

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Not that Judge needs any extra motivation on opening night, but he’s from nearby Sacramento and grew up a Giants fan. Judge considered signing with the team while he was a free agent after the 2022 season, but ended up returning to the Bronx.

During his career at Oracle Park, Judge is 6 for 10 with three home runs, six RBIs and five runs scored, so he clearly gets excited when he plays close to home. Judge has nine plate appearances against Giants ace Logan Webb, who starts tonight (they were teammates on Team USA in the WBC), and is 3-for-7 with a dinger and three RBIs. No. 99 is +225 to go to the yard tonight and +125 for an RBI.

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Webb, 29, is making his fifth straight Opening Day for the Giants, which will mark the second-longest streak in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Juan Marichal (six), and is 0-1 with a 3.91 ERA in the first four. The right-hander Webb is an annual NL Cy Young candidate (+1700 this season) who finished fourth in the 2025 NL voting after going 15-11 with a 3.22 ERA, 224 strikeouts (most in the National League) and an MLB-high 207 innings.

Webb is the definition of a workhorse and might be a bit more of a stretch than most Opening Day starters in that Webb has not only pitched in three Cactus League games, but started twice for the Americans in the World Baseball Classic and was terrific, allowing one run in 8.2 innings.

Right-handed hitters don’t fare well compared to Webb, but lefties hit .286 with a .769 OPS in 2025, so expect a lot of lefties in New York’s lineup — as many as six of them. Webb has three career starts against the Yankees and is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA in 18.0 innings.

Tonight also marks the first professional regular season game managed by Giants manager Tony Vitello, as he was hired directly by the University of Tennessee in an MLB debut. For what it’s worth, Vitello led San Francisco to a 19-9 record in the Cactus League, just behind the Dodgers (20-8). Vitello is +1400 for NL manager of the year.

Outfielder and former Yankee Harrison Bader, signed in the offseason, has been dealing with hamstring issues but should be good to go. Bader played for Team Israel in the WBC and also appeared in nine spring games with San Francisco before the injury, slashing .316/.409/.579.

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Like the Giants, the Yankees were pretty tight-lipped when it came to free agency. New York shopped for big-name targets but generally lost and re-signed their own guys like Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham. There’s a ton of pressure on Aaron Boone to finally win a World Series, and he’s a +500 second favorite to be the first manager fired this season.

Left-hander Max Fried makes his first Opening Day start with the Yankees, but had previously made three with Atlanta and was 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA. Fried signed an eight-year contract worth $218 million with the Yankees before the 2025 season and went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA, setting career highs in wins, starts (32), innings pitched (195.1) and strikeouts (189), earning an All-Star selection.

Fried finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting and is +1500 this year. He was just OK this spring in three no-decision starts and with a 4.40 ERA in 14.1 innings. The 32-year-old California native is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA in nine career appearances against the Giants over 50.1 innings.

San Francisco was one of the worst teams in baseball in 2025 against lefties with a 17-28 record against them and the worst marks in the league with a .214 average and .631 OPS. The Giants’ biggest addition in free agency was multiple batting champion Luis Arraez. The left-handed hitter kills righties but is average against lefties.

Last April, the Giants went to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series and won two. Tonight will be the first MLB regular season game to use the automated ball-strike challenge system. There were a few hiccups with the ABS this spring, but it worked.

Single-game FanDuel Parlay (+123)

• Aaron Judge 1+ Hit/Run/RBI
• Giants Alt +2.5
• Alt greater than 4.5

I would never bet on Judge or any other player for a home run because it’s too random. I tend to see him get on base multiple times via walks or pitches. And maybe he’ll do one with winds blowing 15 mph at Oracle Park. I had originally planned to bet a high Alt Under, but with the winds I chose to go down to that alt 4.5 Over, so if this ends 2-2 in regulation we are assured of a win. As for the spread, I’ll take pretty much any home team +2.5 in a championship game. The model gives New York a predominance of 5.0 to 4.2.