Exactly one week out from the 2026 NFL Draft, the picture at the very top is starting to sharpen, but the rest of the board remains as unsettled as ever. League sources believe the New York Jets are zeroing in on a decision at No. 2, while the Arizona Cardinals hold the keys to how the rest of the first round unfolds.
Beyond that, this is a class defined as much by what it lacks as what it offers. With only one quarterback expected to go early, the usual pre-draft buzz has been muted.
What follows is a full snapshot of where things stand across the league: how teams are viewing the top prospects, which players are rising late in the process, where trade markets could develop and the internal debates shaping decisions that will define the first round.
At No. 2, the Jets have a dilemma on their hands
I can’t say with absolute confidence who the New York Jets will draft at No. 2 overall next week, but sources say the pick will either be David Bailey or Arvell Reese. And most of the league — and my sources — believe the Jets will land on Bailey.
The decision, according to sources, comes down to a fundamental question: do you want immediate help now, or do you want even better help down the road?
“Bailey is the surest one but Arvell is gonna be a star,” said one defensive coordinator. “Arvell needs some time and the Jets need someone right now.”
Bailey is considered to be the more pro-ready prospect of the two. He’s a 22-year-old edge rusher who has a prototypical build and graduated early from Stanford. Last year at Texas Tech he racked up 14 1/2 sacks.
Reese started less than two seasons at Ohio State and spent time as a hybrid outside linebacker. He will turn 21 just before the start of the season and needs a little more size to be considered ideal as an edge rusher in this league.
“I would take [Reese] before any of the other guys,” said one assistant GM. “He’s the most explosive. Everyone talks about him not doing it much but I don’t care. The draft is a projection. That’s what we get paid to do.”
🎯 How Mike Renner projects the top 10 to unfold
| Pick | NFL Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas | Fernando Mendoza | QB | Indiana |
| 2 | N.Y. Jets | David Bailey | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 3 | Arizona | Arvell Reese | EDGE | Ohio State |
| 4 | Tennessee | Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame |
| 5 | N.Y. Giants | Francis Mauigoa | OT | Miami (FL) |
| 6 | Cleveland | Kadyn Proctor | OT | Alabama |
| 7 | Washington | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State |
| 8 | New Orleans | Carnell Tate | WR | Ohio State |
| 9 | Kansas City | Rueben Bain Jr. | EDGE | Miami (FL) |
| 10 | Cincinnati | Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State |
The Jets limped to a 3-14 season last year and head coach Aaron Glenn revamped about half his staff. There was never a consideration to fire Glenn after just one year, but most believe he enters 2026 with a seat that isn’t exactly cold.
Perspective matters when it comes to this pick. A position coach on a win-now team said this: “[Reese’s] body isn’t ready. He’ll be awesome for the next head coach.”
A top exec at a playoff-contending team had this to say: “I’d go Reese over Bailey because of his versatility and he’s one of the youngest guys in the draft.”
The Jets canceled a private visit with Bailey this week, according to SNYtv. It could mean something, or it could be a smokescreen. We will find out soon.
Arizona a draft wildcard at No. 3
If it’s Bailey at No. 2, I could see Reese going at No. 3, or vice versa. It’s just not a sure-thing that it’s Arizona picking there.
Arizona Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is known to be willing to make a draft-day deal. You’ll hear plenty about teams being willing to trade down in this year’s draft, and I think the Cardinals are serious contenders to do just that.
Looking around the league, folks believe the draft begins at No. 3 and no one seems to have a very good sense of what Arizona will do. The Cardinals are the wild cards here.
Why this draft has a low pulse
The reason there is no juice around this draft is simple: there is one quarterback. That position makes this world go round, and we have known since January that the Raiders will take Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall.
The lack of talk about this draft has nothing to do with NIL or the draft being in Pittsburgh or current world events. When there aren’t QBs to discuss at the top, you don’t usually discuss much. The 2022 draft was very similar to this one, if you recall.
Maybe we get some fireworks before Thursday night, but it is not hard to understand why this draft has a low pulse right now.
Expect chalk, then chaos at wide receiver
I know there’s some disagreement in reporting circles around whether this wide receivers class is wide open or not. Based off my calls, it seems most teams agree that it’s Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson, in that order. WR3 is up to whatever flavor a team likes, but I see a very real chance that upwards of five receivers go in the first. Colleague Mike Renner has five receivers among his top 32 players, but funny enough he does not have Tate or Tyson among the top two at their position.
Caleb Downs and the positional value reality
Just about everyone I talk to agrees that Caleb Downs is the cleanest prospect in this year’s draft. Remember that if and when he makes it out of the top 10 and still on the board. These teams want you to believe they’ll take the best player available, but the caveat there usually deals with positional value.
Kyle Hamilton didn’t go off the board until pick No. 14. Derwin James was the 17th selection. Downs may be the cleanest prospect and still have to wait.
Why? Unless a team has a specific plan for Downs to make him more effective than a typical safety, he won’t be able to impact the game like a quarterback, receiver, edge rusher or cornerback. Then consider his salary. Only five current safeties have $30 million in fully guaranteed salary. The 10th overall pick is scheduled to make $29.6 million in fully guaranteed money over his four-year deal. The draft is about getting cost-controlled labor, and drafting someone at safety or running back so high immediately makes that person one of the highest paid at his position in the league.
Late risers gaining traction
You can disagree with the terms “risers” and “fallers” in a draft because teams insist that it is more a media concoction than reality. But a whole bunch of sources within teams use those words to describe prospects.
The top two risers I have heard in recent days are Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. and Arizona defensive back Treydan Stukes.
As noted above, Cooper could go as high as the third receiver off the board Thursday night. The Indiana receiver has impressed in interviews lately.
Some teams have Stukes as a nickel corner or a safety. But if coaches have a say in it, Stukes could go in the first round and could be the third safety taken Thursday.
Ty Simpson gaining first-round consideration
As we have gotten closer to the draft, I have started hearing Ty Simpson’s name a little bit more in the first round. The Alabama quarterback is easily QB2 in this year’s draft, but it is possible he sneaks into Round 1. We haven’t seen just one go in the first since Kenny Pickett was the lone guy in 2022. Funny enough, the popular mock spot for Simpson is No. 21 to the Steelers, who used a first-round pick on Pickett back in ’22.
People like Simpson, and if the second half of the season looked like the first, he would be a slam dunk first-round pick.
Sure, he was banged up down the stretch. And no, the Alabama offensive line wasn’t what it has been in years past. But Simpson is still just barely 6-foot-1 and weighed in at 211 pounds. So he’s on the smaller side, he’s not a plus-athlete and he didn’t play consistently through the year.
“From what I’ve watched of the QBs, I could see Ty is close to Fernando if you’re focusing on the first half of the season and one guy’s only positive stuff,” said one NFC personnel staffer. “But from the full-picture film, I don’t know how you could say they’re close.”
“Mendoza is a better pro but Mendoza going at 1 and Simpson at 35, is the gap that big? No,” said a different personnel man. “The dude is very competitive. Shows up in big moments. Smart. Has enough physical talent. He can move a little bit, throw, can make some plays. But he’s not dynamic. He just has enough of everything.”
A QBs coach on a team that won’t be drafting that position on Thursday or Friday had this to say about him
“I think Ty is really good. Sneaky good arm. Good in the pocket, good mechanically. There is a lot of evidence of him doing NFL type stuff, going through progressions, resetting the pocket. But some stuff… he’s small, not a very large human. Doesn’t throw with a lot of touch inside the numbers. Everything is a fastball. Not layering anything over the middle or anticipating windows. Maybe he can develop it.”
Said another evaluator of quarterbacks: “In a typical year I think you could get him in the second, but this year I think if you want him you better be willing to take him in the late first or he could be gone.”
Trade market watch, NFC East edition
Getty Images
For months we have been reporting it is likely A.J. Brown will not be with the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2026 season. The New England Patriots remain the frontrunner to acquire the All Pro receiver, and what has been true all offseason continues to be true today as it relates to his contract.
It hurts the Eagles’ 2026 salary cap to deal Brown before June 1, adding an extra $20 million to their cap before that date. If this draft is so weak, and New England’s 31st pick is effectively a second-rounder in any year but especially this year, and if it significantly hurts your cap to trade one of your best players today months before the start of the season, why would you do it?
Eagles GM Howie Roseman continues to say Brown is a member of the Eagles, and that is an unassailable fact. But what sources have pointed out to me is that Brown has done nothing publicly to try to punch his way out of Philly, and those sources believe Brown has an understanding that a deal will take place at some point in the summer. Making a public stink does not help his position, especially when he could be on another team by OTAs and minicamp in June anyway.
Philadelphia has positioned itself to move forward in 2026 with a receivers group that can live without Brown. At this point it would be a surprise if Brown is not on a new team by the start of training camp.
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Dexter Lawrence’s trade request was not just an attempt for more money from the team. Two sources tell me he does indeed want out of New York. But the Giants do not necessarily agree, and they don’t have to make a deal by next week.
Here’s what I’ve gathered: The Giants do not seem too keen on paying Lawrence high-market price coming off his worst statistical season of his career, but they aren’t going to give him away. If they can get a great offer for him — something that includes at least a first-round pick — I think they will deal him.
The acquiring team will likely have to pay Lawrence a salary in the high-20s upon trading for him. That would be OK for a contending team needing an interior defensive lineman and realizing this is not the year to hope you’ll get one in the draft.
Quinnen Williams went for a first and second back at the trade deadline, and that generally seems like a fair price for Lawrence. What will be interesting is if the Giants take a 2026 second rounder and demand a 2027 first. If that’s the case, and if the Giants do deal Lawrence, they wouldn’t have to do the transaction until Friday.
If we get through Friday night with no deal, I would not expect one any time soon. Both sides can pick up where they left off on talks and try to find a middle ground as the spring continues.
Coaching influence and team tendencies
Two sources on different teams brought this up to me unprompted recently. Each one had high praise for Pro Football Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, who has been working at Miami as the defensive ends/rush coach the past few years.
Teams have raved about the quality of the pre-draft interviews with Miami rushers Rueben Bain and Ahkeem Mesidor.
Said an AFC scout: “Jason Taylor has done a great job with those dudes. They all bring him up a lot and that shows that he cares. They were really buttoned up.”
And an NFC defensive coach: “Jason Taylor is coaching these dudes. They are sharp in the classroom.”
Good on Taylor for making a difference at the college level.
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It would be a surprise if the Cowboys don’t go defense-defense with the two first-round picks, and of course they could do something to trade up in the draft as well.
The influence new defensive coordinator Christian Parker will have on what the Cowboys do is significant, I’m told. Jerry Jones believes Parker’s hire is a coup for the team, and they are listening closely to what the first-time DC has to say about these prospects.
Parker is just 34 years old and hardly a household name, but he will have a major say in what the most popular NFL team does next week at picks No. 12 and 20.
And by the way, I do think the Cowboys pick twice in the first round next week. I know they are rumored to trade up from 12, and if they do go up, I don’t see them sending away 20. This team is ready to add on defense, and Dallas doesn’t select again until No. 92.
Trends shaping this class
You won’t see many safeties, off-ball linebackers or tight ends drafted in the first round next week in large part because of positional value. Using that same logic, you would assume there may be plenty of interest at defensive tackle. While the interest is there, the players may not be.
Teams do not love the defensive tackles in this year’s class. It may be the late 20s before we see a DT go off the board, and even that may not spark a run at the position based off what I’m hearing. Peter Woods, Kayden McDonald and Christen Miller are the three who are in contention to be the first defensive tackle taken, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them have to wait to hear their names called Friday.
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Next week we could see one of the oldest drafts in recent history. There’s always a handful of older players in every draft, and they typically are Latter Day Saints who spent years away on their mission.
But the COVID fallout still impacts this year’s class. There are players who have transferred multiple times. And, of course, there’s NIL that kept some players in college longer with extra coin in their pocket while they matured for the NFL.
I don’t have the average age of this year’s draft class (I decided not to use a few gallons of water to have AI churn that out), but I feel decent in projecting the average age of players drafted next week will be higher than in recent years past.
Guys who will hear their names called by Friday like guard Emmanuel Pregnon, edge rusher Ahkeem Mesidor and defensive back Treydan Stukes either can or will be able to legally rent a car anywhere in America by early in the regular season. Jacob Rodriquez, the consensus No. 2 off-ball linebacker in this draft, will be 24 at the start of the year.
Teams want to draft guys somewhere between ages 20-22 so that they can catch their early prime on a rookie contract and pay a second deal during their prime years. But with the factors above, there may be more older prospects entering the draft in the coming years.
“Age can be like looking at mileage on a car,” said one assistant GM. “At certain positions, you’re going to age less in the trenches than on the perimeter. Taking that older, 25-year-old wide receiver or defensive back is a riskier play. But the interior guys, that may be a trend with as much as guys are staying in school.
“And the coaches don’t care because they’re getting some players who are near-ready. By the time he’s at the end of his contract, that coach isn’t even there anymore.”
Scattershooting other eval notes
If Jermod McCoy had been healthy this past season, there’s a very real chance he is a top-10 pick next week. Teams love his 2024 tape, but a January 2025 ACL tear kept him out of the entire season.
“I thought McCoy was a top-five player in this year’s class based off last year’s film. Everything looks incredibly easy for him. Injury will scare some people and don’t blame them,” said one GM.
“He should go in the teens,” said another evaluator.
“He’s the best cover player in the draft,” one defensive coordinator said.
If McCoy falls next week, it will be because of the medical information and tolerance teams have.
Meanwhile, cornerback Avieon Terrell could still go in the first round even though he ran in the 4.6s at his pro day. Terrell reportedly hurt his hamstring during his first 40, though those in attendance say he brushed it off in the moment.
“Terrell is not running like he’s healthy if you watch the pro day,” said one person who was there. “You know he’s not a 4.6 guy. He would have never run if he wasn’t going to run a good time. I truly believe he was trying to tough it out.”
One NFL GM said the team had his GPS data that showed him as a cornerback running in the mid to high 4.4s during the season, so they weren’t concerned about the slower 40.
If Terrell slips, it will be because he’s slightly undersized at the position and — fairly or unfairly — gets compared to his older brother, A.J.
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Not sure there’s been a prospect compared more to a current play than Makai Lemon has been to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Any acquiring team would love to get one of the best receivers in the NFL in any draft, but those are lofty expectations for Lemon to live up to.
Lemon had a strange and viral podium interview at the combine, but teams I talk to aren’t scared away by that. Several sources admit it was “a little weird,” but another source said that USC “raves about him.” A different evaluator said “he’s just a California kid.”
People will point to his body not being as solid as someone like St. Brown and he’s only 5-11. But he had the best production out of the top receivers in this year’s draft and some teams think he has some versatility outside of the slot.
Expecting a soft middle on draft night
Because this draft doesn’t have as much blue-chip talent as typical years, and because there is so much variance in what teams believe about these guys, I actually anticipate the middle of the first round to not have much trade activity.
Let’s say you have somewhere around 15 first-round grades and are picking around 18 to 21. What are the odds that the teams in front of you will see it just like you do and you’ll be left drafting a second rounder at that spot?
“In lesser drafts, the boards diverge even quicker,” said one source. If you’re, say, Carolina at 19, but you only have first-round grades on 15 players (that’s a guess, by the way), I would say the odds are very good that you’ll have multiple prospects with first-round grades still available when you select.
I could see trade activity up high in this year’s draft — with the team trading out only going down a few slots — and down low. But the middle could see teams let the board come to them.
Lastly, my thoughts on Rueben Bain car wreck, reporting process
Rueben Bain’s involvement in a car wreck two years ago that left one woman dead was finally reported Sunday, and it has led to a conversation about sports media and how insiders deal with information. It raises a legitimate issue of ethics, and don’t take what I write below as preachy because I’m still not convinced of the right answer.
Ollie Connolly reported Sunday that Bain was cited for careless driving in 2024 for a car wreck that left one woman in a coma. Destiny Betts later died, and Bain’s citation was later dismissed. There was no finding of criminal liability for Bain. Betts’ family has stated publicly they wish for their privacy to be honored and that Bain has a successful NFL career.
Every NFL team has been aware of this event for months. I dare say most teams have known about it for more than a year. I first heard about it during my initial draft prep in February. Sources told me it was very hush-hush and there was little-to-no paper trail. I had been told the Betts family did not want publicity. And it did not seem to impact what teams thought of Bain in the pre-draft process. I decided not to pursue the story. Looking back on that, I should have attempted to find the paper Connolly did in his reporting, at the very least.
On one hand, there is very little question there is news value in a top-10 NFL draft pick having some involvement in a wreck that led to someone’s death. But there’s a difference between news value and news judgment. Should that news value trump the wishes of a family who has “worked hard to find peace and move forward?” What if there is no criminal liability for this terrible event? If everyone has tried to move on, and if Bain’s future employer has been satisfied with his explanation, what is the job of the journalist here?
I can’t speak for the reporter who ultimately broke the story, but I don’t see this as a team planting the story to get Bain’s stock to fall. I venture to say that most reporters covering this league at this level had a tertiary understanding of the events, at the very least. And they didn’t choose to not report on it because of some favor to his agent, because Bain did not sign with an agent until very recently. (As late as Feb. 20, Bain did not have an agent listed with the NFLPA.)
It is a difficult story that requires a police report, multiple sources and nuance. Once you get all that, you then have to decide if reporting it is the best or right thing. It was a tragic event, and my hope is the Betts family is able to find peace.
