2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
The PGA Championship grants all past winners the major lifetime exemption for future editions. So the 2026 PGA Championship features more than a dozen former champions, including Jason Dufner, Brooks Koepka and Martin Kaymer. Otherwise, these three would not have qualified for the second major of the year, which begins Thursday at Aronimink Golf Club. All three are longshots in golf, with Koepka having the shortest odds in the PGA Championship at +4000 as he seeks his fourth victory in this major.
Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion, is the favorite at +480, while two-time winner Rory McIlroy is at +950. Other top golfers include Cameron Young (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1500) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200). Before you lock in any 2026 PGA Championship picks, be sure to check out the golf predictions and projected rankings from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
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Property of SportsLine golf betting The model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. That same model also won 17 majors over the weekend, including the 2026 Masters – its fifth Masters in a row – as well as last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship field is locked in, the model has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results have been surprising. Head over to SportsLine now to see the projected rankings.
2026 PGA Championship predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young
A pick from the 2026 PGA Championship model: Young (+1,200), the No. 3 golfer in the world who is also third on the odds board, stumbles and fails to even crack the top five. Young has had a breakout season, winning the Players Championship and then the Cadillac Championship earlier this month, but he hasn’t had nearly the same success in the majors. He is 0-for-19 in his career at majors, with as many missed cuts (seven) as top-25 finishes. His results in his last three PGA Championship starts are 47th, 63rd and one missed cut.
Young is on the shortlist to be the best ball striker on the tour, with top-25 rankings in every major category. However, putting is a different story as it ranks 50th in strokes gained: putting. This could be a problem at Aronimink, which is a course in which Young has no experience. The Philadelphia-area course is known for its fast, streamlined putting surfaces, which could undo all the great work Young normally does when he hits the green. With golf odds being so short, there are better players to use your PGA bets on.
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The model also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+480), who could become the first back-to-back PGA champion since Tiger Woods (2006-07). After winning 13 tournaments in 2024 and 2025, Scheffler hasn’t quite kept pace this year. It started with a victory in his first start, but that remains his only victory, while three other golfers have multiple victories in 2026. However, the world No. 1 still finds a way to seemingly always be in contention as he has six top 10s in his nine starts.
This has also been the case in recent majors for Scheffler, who has finished in the top seven in each of his last six majors. But he has no experience on the course with Aronimink because he will be playing there for the first time, and Scheffler’s underlying metrics haven’t kept up with his preternatural form of 2025. Last year, he dominated the tour in strokes gained: he’s getting close to the green, but he’s in 40th place this year, as that will be something to watch on a course known for its fast greens.
The model also looked at McIlroy’s odds (+950) of becoming the seventh golfer to win three PGA Championships. Since winning his second consecutive green jacket, McIlroy has only competed in one event and finished 19th at last week’s Truist Championship. Outside of the Masters, the Irishman has only one other top 10 this season, but he is clearly raising his level of play in the majors. He has two top-3 finishes at the PGA Championship, in addition to his two victories, as his four top-3s here are tied for the most in any major.
McIlroy previously faced Aronimink once at the 2018 BMW Championship where he placed fifth with a score of 18 under par. He struggled to break par at last year’s PGA Championship, doing so just once in four rounds as he finished in 47th place at 3-over. This happened just a month after winning his first Masters, so it will be interesting to see how McIlroy performs a month after winning his second Masters tournament. See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.
How to make picks for the 2026 PGA Championship
The model also targets several longshots, including two at 20-1 or higher who are making great runs for the title at Aronimink. You can only see the template choices here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, which long shots will stun the golf world and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy end up? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has won 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 PGA Championship odds, favorites
Get the complete 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +480
Rory McIlroy +950
Cameron Young +1200
Jon Rahm +1500
Alex Schauffele +1600
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2700
Brooks Koepka +3300
Patrick Cantlay +3500
Collin Morikawa +4000
Min Woo Lee +5000
Nicolai Højgaard +5000
Justin Thomas +5000
Justin Rose +5500
Russell Henley +5500
Rickie Fowler +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Adam Scott +6000
Viktor Hovland +6000
Si Woo Kim +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Chris Gotterup +6000
JJ Spain +6500
Robert MacIntyre +6500
Patrick Reed +7000
Maverick McNealy +7000
Joaquin Niemann +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Jordan Spieth +8000
Shane Lowry +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Hideki Matsuyama +10,000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Harris English +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Ben Griffin +10000
David Puig +10000
Thomas Détry +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Jacob Bridgeman +10000
Alex Noren +12500
Jason Day +12500
Alex Smalley +12500
Harry Room +12500
Pierceson Coody +15000
Matt McCarty +15000
Sungjae I am +15000
Corey Conners +15000
Sahith Theegala +17500
Michael Thorbjörnsen +17500
Ryan Gérard +17500
Wyndham Clark +17500
Rasmus Højgaard +17500
Brian Harman +17500
Ryan Fox +22500
Samuel Stevens +22500
Ryo Hisatsune +22500
Keith Mitchell +22500
Aaron Rai +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Marco Penge +22500
Daniel Berger +22500
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +22500
Taylor Penndrith +25000
Tom McKibbin +25000
Ricky Castillo +25000
Jordan Smith +25000
Michael Brennan +25000
Angel Ayora +25000
Max Homa +25000
Cauley Bud +25000
Michael Kim +25000
Jayden Schaper +35000
Haotong Li +35000
Daniel Hillier +35000
Dustin Johnson +35000
Aldrich Potgieter +35000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +35000
André Novak +35000
Max Greyserman +35,000
JT Poston +35000
Matt Wallace +35000
Cameron Smith +35000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Andrew Putnam +50000
Sami Valimaki +50000
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +50000
Bernd Wiesberger +50000
Denny McCarthy +50000
Stéphane Jaeger +50000
Richard Hoey +50000
Lucas Glover +50000
Stewart Cink +50000
Billy Horschel +50000
Patrick Rodgers +50000
Max McGreevy +50,000
Ian Holt +50000
Austin Smotherman +50000
Mikael Lindberg +50000
Chris Kirk +75000
Johnny Keefer +75000
Casey Jarvis +75000
Steven Fisk +75000
John Parry +75000
Matti Schmid +75000
Tom Hoge +75000
Jimmy Walker +100000
Braden Shattuck +100,000
Bryce Fisher +100,000
Jhonattan Vegas +100000
Michael Block +100000
YE Yang +100000
Luc Donald +100000
Ben Kern +100000
Elvis Smylie +100000
Timothy Wiseman +100,000
Jared Jones +100,000
Paul McClure +100000
Derek Berg +100000
Garrett Sapp +100000
Ryan Vermeer +100000
Dan Brown +100000
Adam Schenk +100000
Francisco Bide +100000
Austin injured +100,000
Padraig Harrington +100000
Adrien Saddier +100000
Emiliano Grillo +100000
Martin Kaymer +100000
Kota Kaneko +100,000
Ben Polland +100000
Brian Campbell +100000
Shaun Michel +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
Garrick Higgo +100,000
Jordan Gumberg +100000
David Lipsky +100000
William Mouw +100000
Michael Kartrude +100000
Joe Highsmith +100000
Mark Geddes +100000
Davis Riley +100000
Tyler Collet +100000
Chris Gabriele +100000
Andy Sullivan +100000
Zach Haynes +100000
Travis Smith +100,000
Ryan Lenahan +100000
Kazuki Higa +100,000
Chandler Blanchet +100000
Jesse Droemer +100000
Brandt Snedeker +100000
