22 of Earth’s 34 ‘vital signs’ are flashing red, new climate report reveals — but there’s still time to act
Without a drastic reduction in emissions, there is a chance that the Earth will embark on a dangerous “hothouse trajectory” to complete climate chaos. That’s one takeaway from a new report that finds 22 of Earth’s 34 “vital signs” are flashing red, signaling the planet is in distress.
Earth’s vital signs are markers of planetary health, such as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane, ocean heat content, sea level fluctuations, and the annual percentage of extremely hot days compared to the 1961 to 1990 average. Most of these markers reaches record levels in 2024And 2025 looks like it’s on the same trajectory, according to the report published today (October 29) in the journal Biosciences.
Ripple and its colleagues first fitted out the framework for measuring Earth’s vital signs in 2020. Five years later, researchers warn that we could cross a series of tipping points and push the planet into a self-sustaining greenhouse regime – a state in which the Earth continues to massively warm even after a significant drop in carbon emissions.
The Earth is now 2.2F (1.2C) warmer than it was on average between 1850 and 1900, and if countries do not adopt new climate policies (which is a scenario often described as the “the cost of inaction”), the planet could reach up to 5.6 F (3.1 C) of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Such a rapid change would mark a turning point in the Holocene, the stable period that Earth entered about 11,000 years ago after the Holocene. last ice agethe scientists wrote in the report.
“Researchers argue that this period of relative climatic calm allowed the development of agriculture, permanent settlements and the rise of human civilizations,” they write. “This stability is now giving way to a period of rapid and dangerous change.”
Rising global temperatures significantly increase the risk of crossing climate tipping points, such as the collapse of polar ice caps and the melting of carbon-rich permafrost. If these systems disintegrate, the amount of solar energy Earth returns to space and the amount of carbon it can store will fall, blocking further warming and causing additional systems to collapse.
“Crossing a tipping point could trigger a cascade of other tipping point crossings, with the majority of interactions being destabilizing,” Ripple and colleagues wrote. “In the worst-case scenario, this could push the climate system onto a hothouse Earth trajectory. This trajectory would lead to a fundamentally different planet with devastating impacts on natural systems and humanity.”
The greenhouse pathway is one of the four most pressing climate risks identified by researchers in the report. The other three are loss of biodiversity; decline of fresh water; and a slowing of the Atlantic southern overturning circulationa system of ocean currents that brings heat to the northern hemisphere.
But of course, these are not the only effects of climate change. “There is [all] all kinds of consequences of warming, including ice sheet collapse, coastal flooding and increased extreme weather events,” said the report’s co-author. Michael MannPresidential Distinguished Professor and Director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, told Live Science in an email.
Global warming is proportional to the quantity of carbon we pump into the atmosphere. Therefore, to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, “the focus should be on rapid decarbonization to stabilize warming below dangerous levels,” Mann said.
“Each year of delay accumulates higher risks and costs“, Ripple added. “We can limit the damage if we act as if this is truly the emergency.”
There is still time to actbecause we have not yet reached levels of warming whose consequences are unmanageable. And there is reason to hope. “Some nations have succeeded end of coal use And reduce methane leaks“, Ripple said. (The United Kingdom, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway and several other European countries no longer have coal in their electricity mix. The European Union and Nigeria have also made tangible progress in reducing methane emissions.)
“Deforestation rates in the Amazon have fallen sharply under new management, renewable energy capacity continues to set records and sales of electric vehicles are climbing” Ripple added.
