Why Democrats and Republicans are watching Tennessee’s special election for Congress : NPR

This combined image shows Aftyn Behn, left, on November 13, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee, and Matt Van Epps, on November 12, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee.

George Walker IV/AP

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George Walker IV/AP

Tennessee’s special congressional election has become the latest battleground for Democrats and Republicans seeking to craft a winning message ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Historically, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is a fairly conservative district that gave President Trump about 60% of the vote last November. Former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July, won by a similar margin.

But in more recent history, Democrats outperformed their 2024 margins in special elections this year by an average of 13% and are coming off a string of high-profile election victories last month.

That dynamic means the race between former Republican Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps and Democratic Rep. Aftyn Behn has garnered national attention in the final weeks of the campaign.

In the home stretch, outside money floods the race

According to the latest data from the Federal Election Commission, outside groups spent more than $6.5 million on the race, including more than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. Two-thirds of the Super PAC’s total spending came in the final two weeks of the race, as early voting picked up in earnest.

Fewer public polls in a special election with generally lower turnout, coupled with a less reliable idea of ​​the makeup of the electorate, have also increased pressure on both parties to eliminate every vote in what could be a close race.

An Emerson College poll released last week found Van Epps slightly ahead of Behn, but within the margin of error among voters surveyed. Surveys released in October by Democratic-aligned firms showed Van Epps with an 8-point advantage, roughly in line with Democrats’ average outperformance in this year’s special elections.

Campaigns focus on cost of living

The final sprint of the race saw a large number of surrogates make campaign stops and virtual appearances in support of the candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin attended canvassing events for Behn last month, while former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a Zoom rally Monday evening.

House Speaker Mike Johnson held a rally Monday morning for Van Epps, during which Trump called in on loudspeaker to proclaim that “the whole world is watching Tennessee right now.”

Both parties are making affordability a major issue in the race, particularly on the airways. Van Epps endorsed Trump while focusing his final message on the economy.

In one ad, Van Epps denounced “career politicians” and promised to “lower prices, create good-paying jobs and reduce health care costs for working families.”

Behn’s closing ad promised that she would “shake Washington” by “making health care more affordable, lowering the cost of living, and protecting workers and small businesses from job-killing tariffs.”

During a Monday night rally call for Van Epps, Trump dismissed affordability as something Democrats have mentioned to distract from what he called many of his administration’s accomplishments.

“They like to talk about affordability,” Trump said during Monday night’s tele-rally for Van Epps. “To them it’s just a scam, it’s just a word.”