National Weather Service defends its flood warnings amid fresh scrutiny of Trump staff cuts

The fatal floods in Texas who left thousands of people who rush to security with little warning have triggered a new series of exams of the Trump administration at the National Weather Service.

At least 79 people died and many other people who disappeared on Sunday evening, after flood waters suddenly increased in Texas Hill Country, an area known as “strategic flood aisle”.

In the hours after the Friday morning flood, some Texas officials criticized the NWS, saying that forecasts underestimated precipitation. Representative Jack Kimble, D-Calif., Published on Saturday on X an ironic criticism of the NWS Cups in response to a position by Vice-President JD Vance. On Sunday, President Donald Trump rejected the idea of ​​investigating the question of whether the NWS cuts had left key positions, and the White House said that NWS’s reductions had something to do with the “disgusting” tragedy.

Independent meteorologists and a former NWS official said that the warnings issued with a view to this weekend floods were about as timely and precise as possible with the weather data available in real time. Predding extreme precipitation and sudden floods beyond several hours is difficult, they said, and it is not easier to ensure that urgent warnings reach the most risky.

“The forecasts were good. The warnings were good. It is always a question of bringing people to receive the message,” said Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist based in Wisconsin. “It seems that it is one of the greatest contributors – this last Mile.”

Meteorologists said they did not think that sub-employed offices were a main factor in the tragic result, even if NWS has leadership gaps after a wave of staff cuts.

Tom Fahy, Legislative Director of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, a union representing a government employeessaid that the San Antonio meteorological forecast office did not have two of its main occupied positions – a permanent science agent (a role in training and is in charge of implementing new technologies) or a warning coordination meteorologist (which coordinates with the media and is the public face of the office), although there are employees who act in management positions. Overall, Fahy said that the offices were sufficiently equipped with meteorologists to respond to the event.

“WFOs [weather forecasting offices] Had adequate staff and resources because they have expressed timely forecasts and warnings leading to the storm, “said Fahy on Saturday, but added that he was concerned about management positions and management vacuum cleaners.

In a statement, the National Weather Service said that it had “a heart broken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County”. The agency did not answer questions on the staff, but provided a detailed schedule of the warnings he sent.

Some Texas officials have suggested that National Weather Center forecasts had not transferred the threat of the storm while others said they were grateful to the agency’s opportune alerts.

“The initial forecasts that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted three to six inch rain in the Concho valley and four to eight -inch rain in the country of the hills,” said Texas Emergency Management, W. Nim Kidd, at a press conference on Friday. “The amount of rain that fell into this specific place has never been in any of these forecasts.”

The National Water Center said that Kerrville, Texas and its surrounding areas could be at risk of sudden floods on Thursday, July 3, according to a calendar provided by the National Weather Service. Then NWS Austin / San Antonio published a flood watch at 1:18 p.m. Thursday continuing on Friday morning. The office issued its urgent warnings from the flash floods at 1:14 for Kerr County.

Travis county judge Andy Brown thanked the National Weather Service for his alerts. Eric Carter, chief coordinator of the county emergency management, described the service as “very proactive in their warnings”.

The agency noted that it had sent a lightning flood warning with a “considerable” or “catastrophic” label at 1 h 14 ct on Friday, which would trigger wireless emergency alerts on activated mobile devices.

“Lightning flood warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and early in the morning of July 4, giving preliminary deadlines of more than three hours …”, said the statement.

The concern about staff and performance comes after the Trump administration this spring dismissed National Weather Service employees and also offered buyouts and retirement. In early June, the National Weather Service had lost around 600 employees. Many NWS veteran workers have left the agency, as well as employees on probation and those who recently hired or promoted.

Certain NWS offices have seen all 40%endowment reductions, and the agency rushed to fill critical roles in certain forecast offices. At least eight offices have stopped operating 24 hours a day this spring this spring and some suspended the launches of meteorological balloons.

In May, more than 40% of the country forecast offices in the country had personnel vacation rates over 20%. The cuts prompted all former NWS living directors to write a letter expressing concerns about staff levels and future budget cuts.

“Our worst nightmare is that the offices of the weather forecasts will be so under-effective that there will be unnecessary losses of life. We know that it is a nightmare shared by those on the front line-and by people who depend on their efforts,” they wrote.

Compared to numerous forecast offices across the country, the Texas offices remain relatively well filled.

Fahy said that the San Antonio / Austin meteorological forecast office operated with 11 staff meteorologists and has broken down from six employees of his complete endowment level of 26. He also noted that the office near San Angelo, which has issued warnings for central Texas parties, is short of the personnel of his usual staff. The office is also without senior hydrologist.

“In San Angelo, there is no hydrologist, and that’s a problem,” said Fahy. Hydrologists analyze the flow of flow and play a key role in the response to floods.

Dalton Rice, municipal director of Kerrville, said that the city would examine whether its own emergency notifications were robust enough to warn residents.

“We know that questions are asked about emergency notification, and although it is not the time to speculate, local and regional partners are engaged in a complete examination of events and systems in place,” said Rice at a press conference on Sunday. “At the right time, we will take clear measures to strengthen our future preparation. We owe this commitment to the suffering families and each member of our community. ”

Eminent independent meteorologists who have criticized NWS staff and budget cuts in the past have said that federal meteorologists on the ground have expressed timely warnings.

Alan Gerard, the former director of the branch of the analysis and understanding of the National Severe Storms Laboratory of the Noaa, wrote in a blog post that the Austin / San Antonio forecast office did a good job by communicating the risks as quickly as possible, despite the management positions without ease.

“Obviously, having these two vacant positions for an extended time is not optimal, and could certainly have had negative impacts at a certain level,” wrote Gerard. “However, by examining the real warning services that NWS provided during the event, they were solid and provided the level of warning and alerts that the public should expect to receive for an event like this.”

Matt Lanza, a meteorologist based in Houston, said that there was no initial indication that staff levels or budget cuts had played a role in the tragedy.

Vagasky, the Wisconsin meteorologist, said that the forecast of sudden floods and extreme precipitation is notoriously difficult.

“The quantitative forecasts for precipitation, called QPF, are one of the most difficult things that weather should do. You have to get the right location, the right amount, the right time,” said Vagasky. “They knew it was an important event and they sent a message.”

Vagasky said the remains of the Tropical Storm Barry moved to Texas and have fed the tropical humidity with serious thunderstorms, which stalled on the center of Texas and hit the region with extreme precipitation.

He added that the rate by which the forecasters indicated an increasing concern corresponding to what the weather models showed and what it would expect.

The Texas Hill Country is often called “alley of lightning floods” because its topography can quickly channel and swell the rivers. Knowing precisely where the rain will fall is the key so that the hydrological models understand where the impacts of the floods would be worse.

“This week’s forecasts were 4-7, 5-9 inches of rain, somewhere in there. And some models showed higher quantities in addition to that. Knowing-was the higher quantity going to fall three miles in this way or three miles in this way?-has a great impact on the ultimate results,” said Vagasky. “Unfortunately, science is simply not at this time when you can say:” OK, I know that this specific latitude and longitude, we are going to have so much rain. “”

The moment of the night of the strongest precipitation and the flood waters that begin to increase are a nightmare scenario for the forecasters, said Vagasky.

“A severe meteorological response in the middle of the night is one of the biggest challenges. It is then that we see the most tornado and the most flooding deaths. People were sleeping. They cannot see the tornado or the water rising,” said Vagasky. “Have people had their emergency alerts activated on their phones?”

Vagasky, who criticized staff discounts and cuts in the outings of meteorological balloons at the National Weather Service, said that he did not think that the staff would have prevented the tragedy.

“These are important positions that must be filled,” he said, adding that “he was probably not an important contributor to what happened.”

Vagasky said there was a lot of room for improving quantitative precipitation forecasts that could help forecastists identify threats earlier. Such research is at risk if the administration reduces the financing of the NOAA as it described, he said.

“The big concern is the last budget request, if it goes through the congress as the administration wants, it closes all the research laboratories of the NOAA, which are the laboratories that do the work to improve this forecast.”