Russia, Ukraine Back for Second Round of Trilateral Talks
Trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the United States have resumed for a second session in Abu Dhabi, but the basic negotiating positions of kyiv and Moscow, which prevented progress in previous attempts, remain essentially unchanged.
Delegates from Ukraine, Russia and the United States met in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Wednesday morning for a new round of peace talks over the war in Ukraine. The last round was held in the same city on January 23-24 and, although all sides seemed to agree that they had been constructive, no serious progress was publicly declared.
The United States and Ukraine have already said that real answers are unlikely to emerge until there are talks between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, given that solid decisions on the peace process would not be possible with less authority in the room than that of the head of state. Still, the trilateral talks mark the first time in years that the two main combatants have sat down around the table and talked, and the talks could lay the groundwork for future leaders-level meetings.
But progress will likely be slow; neither kyiv nor Moscow has given in to the red lines they have often asserted, and mutual criticism is harsh. The fact remains that Russia absolutely demands that Ukraine cede parts of the east of its own country in Russia’s permanent possession, including the territories it has failed to conquer, which kyiv is unlikely to accept. And Ukraine is absolutely insistent on strong security guarantees from the West – particularly the United States – which NATO is wary of because it creates a nuclear risk in Eastern Europe.
Furthermore, Ukraine says heavy Russian airstrikes in recent days demonstrate that Russia is not really interested in peace and used last week’s ceasefire to simply build up its forces in preparation for larger attacks once the deal expires. Indeed, Russia’s massive airstrike against Ukrainian citizens overnight Tuesday morning was the largest in more than a year, kyiv said, noting that more than 70 missiles were launched, including many ballistic missiles at energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of “deliberately” breaking what was called a week-long truce and said: “Either Russia now believes that there are four incomplete days in a week instead of seven, or it is really only betting on war and waiting for the coldest days of this winter… We believe that this Russian strike clearly violates what the American side has been discussing, and there must be consequences.”
Russia struck again last night, just hours before the negotiators’ meeting, with the governor of Odessa claiming a “massive attack with strike drones”. Russia made the same claim about Ukraine, saying kyiv launched missiles and drones that damaged “infrastructure” and “civilian facilities” in Belgorod and Bryansk.
As negotiations began on Wednesday, Ukraine’s Rustem Umerov confirmed discussions were underway and said in a statement:
The negotiation process began in a trilateral format – Ukraine, United States and Russia. Next comes work in separate groups by area, after which joint synchronization of positions is planned.
We are working under the clear directives of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to achieve a dignified and lasting peace.
We inform the Head of State of the progress of each stage of the negotiations.
The Kremlin also confirmed that negotiations were underway and asserted that Ukraine must bend to its will. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the matter: “Until the kyiv regime makes the appropriate decisions, the special military operation continues.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also spoke out on Russian red lines on Wednesday, affirming Moscow’s position that the only foreign country that should be allowed to deploy troops in Ukraine is Russia. She said of EU plans to create an assurance force for Ukraine: “This is in reality an overt plan for foreign military intervention. That’s the only way to describe it… The forces of this so-called coalition of the willing will be led by Britain and France.”
She said, according to Moscow state media: “Russia has repeatedly made clear that the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian soil, under any flag, threatens our security. We will treat these troops as legitimate military targets.”
Russia has made several such statements over the past year as it attempts to dissuade NATO, the United States and European states from attempting to maintain peace in a post-ceasefire Ukraine by deploying their own forces on the ground. So far, the most enthusiastic supporters have been the United Kingdom and France, and last month the two countries signed a “declaration of intent on the deployment of forces.”
This “paves the way for the legal framework within which British, French and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil, secure Ukraine’s skies and seas and regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces for the future,” Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said.
Ukraine’s Zelensky appears to have been somewhat impervious to these developments and has made clear that either full U.S. guarantees of war with Russia should Moscow attempt to invade again or an independent Ukrainian nuclear deterrent are the levels of assurance he believes his country needs.
