Crockett Surges to 12-Point Lead in Senate Primary As Texas Democrats Consolidate – RedState
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) is no longer just ahead in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. She is withdrawing, and she is doing so while early voting is already underway.
The latest statewide survey, conducted Feb. 2-16 of likely Democratic primary voters, shows the Dallas congresswoman increasing her advantage over state Rep. James Talarico. Early voting began Feb. 17 and will continue through Feb. 27 ahead of the March primaries, meaning this change is happening while votes are underway.
“Crockett leads Talarico 56 to 44 percent among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.”
Twelve points.
It’s not an oscillation. That’s the movement.
Polls at the end of January put him up 8 points after a period when the race seemed closer. Since then, the trajectory has been in one direction.
The broader polling average tells the same story. This is not a spike due to a single survey. This is a widening margin.
In Democratic circles, the tone is already changing. A longtime party strategist posted this week that DSCC sources believed Crockett was “probably winning,” adding that a line of attack against his opponent “worked.” Whether it’s manipulation or confidence, it’s not the language of a campaign that expects the race to tighten.
As I have said since arriving in Washington a few weeks ago, DSCC sources tell me they are resigned to Crockett’s likely victory. Colin Allard’s attack worked.
Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Democratic Senate primary, poll finds https://t.co/cdTgNTNoU9
– Dan Turrentine (@danturrentine) February 25, 2026
On the Republican side, the situation is very different. The GOP primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains tight, with single-digit margins and competitive movement depending on the poll. This race remains unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a way that signals clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction within the party.
Fewer and fewer Democratic primaries are.
Primaries typically get tighter as voting begins. They generally do not widen. Going from a single-digit margin to a 12-point margin as votes unfold suggests Democratic voters are making a decision, without hesitation.
Crockett didn’t build his profile by playing it safe. Over the past year, she’s delved into sharp exchanges, viral moments and snappy soundbites that regularly spill beyond Texas politics. In recent immigration crises, Democratic lawmakers have used a similar framework, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the details were clear, only to have subsequent information destroy the narrative. This posture did not harm him in this primary. If anything, it seems to be part of what solidifies support around her.
Learn more: Jasmine Crockett’s politics page finally drops — and it’s a hilarious trainwreck
New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid
While Republicans are still competing for position, Democrats seem increasingly comfortable with theirs.
Surveys are snapshots. They always are.
But widening margins in early voting are not meaningless noise. They suggest consolidation. And such early consolidation is not accidental.
Editor’s note: President Trump is leading America toward the “Gilded Age” while Democrats are desperately trying to stop him.
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