The key deadlines that could shape the future of the Iran war: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Andrea Mitchell examines the upcoming dates on the calendar that will play an important role in determining what happens next in Iran. Plus, Julie Tsirkin sits down for a wide-ranging interview with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

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—Adam Wollner

The main deadlines that could shape the future of the war in Iran

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

Signs now appear to point towards the president Donald Trumpwants to get out of the war with Iran. Although the Pentagon is now sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops to the region, a few looming deadlines are possible clues.

Even if Iranian negotiators still get a vote, few observers doubt that Trump enjoys the pomp and circumstance of a state dinner. Trump waits King Charles III And Queen Camille for dinner the following week, and it would be more than embarrassing for the White House to host the royal family while the United States is expanding a war against Iran that is so widely unpopular in the United Kingdom.

In fact, Trump spoke of the visit as another reason to justify his controversial ballroom. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office two weeks ago, he discussed the potential indignity of seeing the British monarch walk on the soggy grass of the South Lawn instead of a marble floor.

“The water can get up to 3 to 4 inches on their shoes. It’s not a good feeling,” Trump said at the time. “King Charles, who is a great guy, we don’t want him sitting in a pool of water.”

Asked today by London-based Sky News if he thinks he will have a deal to end the war in Iran by the time the king arrives, Trump said: “It’s possible. Very possible.”

There are also indications that the United States and Iran may extend the two-week ceasefire negotiated last weekend in Pakistan. Asked today about reports of a two-week extension, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that was not true “at the moment,” but she added: “We are happy with the prospects of a deal.” U.S. officials are also talking about a new session of negotiations between the leaders, as well as a meeting of technical experts in the meantime to try to resolve such thorny issues as Iran’s nuclear stockpile and demands for control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Another upcoming deadline is Trump’s trip to meet with the Chinese president. Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, already postponed once due to the war against Iran. Although China has long been considered a strong ally of Iran – relying heavily on its sanctioned oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – Trump told Fox Business in an interview broadcast today that Xi assured him it was not supplying weapons to Iran – contrary to concerns expressed by Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.

“They agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” Trump said. “President Xi will give me a big, big hug when I get there in a few weeks.”

Finally, there is an economic imperative to end the war, and the administration this week launched a new strategy: coercing Iran through a partial blockade of the strait.

In addition to blocking most Iranian oil shipments, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters today that one of the “fatal mistakes the Iranians made was to bomb their neighbors, who are now prepared to be much more transparent in terms of funds or to deepen their investigations into the funds held in their banking systems.”

Iran was known to deposit its sanctioned oil profits in Gulf financial institutions. According to Bessent, the United States is now threatening to freeze its military branch’s Iranian depots. He also warned China that the United States could impose secondary sanctions on its banks holding Iranian funds.

While strengthening its military power in the region, the White House is now also using its economic power. This led Bessent to predict that gas prices would return to $3 per gallon between June and the end of September. In other words, before that other looming deadline: the November midterm elections.

➡️ Related: Senate Republicans Again Block Democratic Efforts to End Trump’s War in Iran, by Sahil Kapur and Frank Thorp V

For subscribers: In group chats and meetings, Republicans are privately petrified that the war in Iran could cost them the midterm elections.

By Melanie Zanona, Bridget Bowman, Matt Dixon and Peter Nicholas

Few Republican lawmakers have publicly said anything about Trump’s surprising social media post last week warning Iran that “an entire civilization is going to die tonight,” but privately, in a large text message discussion, a group of them read his threat with concern.

“People were angry” one of the House Republicans told NBC News.

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Sen. Thom Tillis vows to continue blocking Trump’s Fed nominee

By Julie Tsirkin

In an interview with Fox Business, President Donald Trump the senator suggested. Thomas TillisRN.C., who sometimes broke with him, had “already left” the Senate and would not be a factor in the confirmation of his nominees.

But Tillis is still there. And as a member of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, he exercises his ability to single-handedly block Kevin WarshTrump’s candidate to replace Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve.

In a lengthy interview with NBC News, Tillis called Warsh a “perfect candidate” but maintained he would not vote to confirm him until the Trump administration ends its federal criminal investigation into Powell.

Warsh’s confirmation hearing to replace Powell is scheduled for next week, and he cannot be confirmed without Tillis’ vote as long as Democrats remain united against Trump’s pick.

Tillis blasted the investigation, saying Powell did nothing wrong. He said he was taking Trump at his word that he was not involved in opening the investigation, despite criticism and threats of firing from Powell, who refused his pressure to cut interest rates. Instead, he suggested that “someone at the DOJ” was going after Powell to “maybe curry favor with someone at the White House.”

Powell has denied any wrongdoing, and a federal judge last month blocked subpoenas in the investigation, citing “essentially no evidence.”

End the investigation, he said, “and I will vote for Kevin Warsh at the same time as this declaration from the DOJ is concluded, and not a day before, and not during the remaining 264 days of my term in the United States Senate.” »

Tillis responded to criticism: “Now some people may say, ‘OK, Thom, you’ve made your point. Jay Powell’s term expires in May, so why not fill it?’ Because I don’t want to reward bad behavior.

Tillis, who will retire at the end of the year, said he lost his “filter” when discussing everything from the war with Iran (he’s not clear “what the strategic goals are”) to Trump’s AI-generated Jesus meme (he takes Trump at his word, saying he thought it described him as a “doctor” and not the son of God).

“If I were running for office, I would probably use a few different words, try to communicate the same thing, like I did in Trump’s,” he said, referring to the president’s first term. “But I just don’t have to deal with that filter.”

Read more →

➡️ More for subscribers: Thom Tillis, speaking freely before his retirement, talks about Trump’s cabinet

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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