Adams Leaving Ain’t Enough to Make NYC Mayor a Race

This is a brief update on the election of the mayor of New York. There are not many good reasons for which this should be a great news or a big story outside the region of Tristate. But as politically obsessed people are quite obsessed with this, I wanted to discuss some specific points on the announcement of mayor Eric Adams that he leaves the race.

I intended to make a post in Mamdani’s advance for a few weeks, but I had not succeeded. The main thing is that there are in fact vulnerabilities for Mamdani that a large part of the meta-balance on this race has missed. A month or two ago, a much more left friend who campaigned informally on behalf of Mamdani asked me what I thought of his chances of winning. I told him that it was difficult to imagine a scenario, unless a massive scandal, which would prevent him from winning. I always think it is very likely that it will do it. But note something on the polls.

Mamdani has never been able to exceed 50%. It is not so bad since it is quite difficult in a race of four people. But it is notable because it is best appreciated by candidates by an important measure. And even a large number of voters who do not vote for him admire a lot of his qualities. But what drew my attention was the recent polls that questioned respondents not only a race for four people, but also a hypothetical race in which Adams or Adams and Curtis Sliwa (the Republican) left the race. My hypothesis had been that Andrew Cuomo (as independent) would get most of these votes but not all. This would push Mamdani comfortably more than 50% because it is already quite close. What the polls have shown, however, is that Mamdani takes up very, very little of the new votes in a head-to-head race for two people. It is a real warning sign – not a warning sign that it is going lose but that he could Lose if Adams and Sliwa had come out.

But again, understand the prism through which I discuss it. I am not saying that he is necessarily in difficulty. I say that the first surveys made me think that his victory was almost guaranteed. But there are plausible scenarios where it could be much more competitive with Cuomo at least have a chance.

Two examples are a Marist poll in the month, which brought Mamdani against Cuomo from 45% to 24% in a race of four people to 49% to 39% in two people. Times survey since the beginning of the month has shown the model even more clearly, from 46% to 24% in four to 48% to 44% in a bogirectional race.

But here is why the departure of Adams in itself does not matter much: Adams is not content to run behind Mamdani and Cuomo. It takes place considerably behind Sliwa. As long as Sliwa is in the race, Cuomo simply does not approach.

So maybe Sliwa is also coming out of the race? Obviously, anything is possible. He is clearly not going to win. But this is where Sliwa’s personality enters the mixture. Sliwa was categorical not to abandon the race. It was very direct that he does not like the idea that the initiates buy or take advantage of the people of the race. He really locked himself pretty tight on this forehead. He was generally hostile to Donald Trump, which makes a romantic agreement unlikely. The other part of this is Sliwa himself. You may remember Sliwa as a founder of the Guardian Angels. Then, for years, he was a guy from radio in New York, in a way populist (in the old way) on the right against a liberal cohost.

Again … personality. In his last years, Sliwa has become a kind of eccentric character. He seems to be fucked to give. It is his second time as a candidate of the mayor of the essentially zero hopeless gop to win. Its main objectives in life seem to be to live with cats and public policies centered on cats. And, interesting, he was not very critical of Mamdani. You could say that it is because they are not really in competition for the same voters. So there is nothing to do. But the texture of his remarks gives me the feeling that he is not very worried that Mamdani became mayor.

Adams may not care about it either. But it is purely transactional and happy to be purchased or simply praised. Adams clearly indicated that he would leave the race in exchange for staying in prison or a generous payment from Veno.