Arizona upset by Texas Tech in OT for second loss of week, loses Koa Peat to injury
No. 16 Texas Tech came back strong to stun No. 1 Arizona 78-75 in overtime Saturday in a Big 12 thriller with far-reaching ramifications. The loss ends an 0-2 week for the Wildcats, who were the last high-profile undefeated team until Monday night’s loss at Kansas.
Arizona led 64-57 with just over three minutes left in regulation before calming down down the stretch while playing shorthanded. Star freshman forward Koa Peat did not play in the second half due to a lower-body injury, leaving Arizona with a six-man rotation.
The Wildcats (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) were also without freshman forward Dwayne Aristode due to illness. Texas Tech (19-6, 9-3 Big 12) isn’t a deep team either, but the Red Raiders have gotten used to playing big minutes this season, and they rose to the occasion late.
JT Toppin led the way with 31 points and 13 rebounds in 44 minutes for the Red Raiders and scored eight in overtime. His offensive rebound six seconds from time also helped consolidate the result.
Christian Anderson added 19 points and eight assists. He played all 45 minutes.
The result strengthens the chances that No. 2 Michigan will move to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll on Monday. It also means that No. 3 Houston (23-2, 11-1 Big 12) is now alone atop the Big 12 rankings.
Texas Tech has now beaten three of CBS Sports Bracketology’s No. 1 seeds, with the Red Raiders also owning wins over Duke and Houston.
Why Arizona will remain the No. 1 seed
This is just Arizona’s second loss, and it’s not a bad loss. Therefore, the Wildcats should remain on the top line of the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
However, this will create some separation between Michigan and Arizona for the time being. The model already favored Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed due to its No. 1 ranking in WAB (Wins Above Bubble) and its No. 1 ranking in KenPom. But it was harder to distinguish between teams when they each had just one loss. The call for No. 1 overall is certainly more obvious now.
What about Texas Tech?
According to the CBS Sports Bracketology model, Texas Tech is projected to remain the No. 4 seed but move up the pecking order from the No. 4 seeds. In the long run, a metric result like beating the No. 1 team in the country on the road will go a long way in making a return to the No. 3 line practical for the Red Raiders, who reached the Elite Eight as a No. 3 seed last season.
Beating the NET’s No. 2 team on the road is worth 0.93 in WAB, which could result in a 3-4 spot jump for the Red Raiders, who entered the day at No. 15 in the all-important resume metric. Texas Tech’s six losses have all been of the Quad 1 variety, and it now has six Quad 1 wins to match them.
