As more states eye redistricting, California’s Proposition 50 is looming large
As partisan redistricting efforts intensify across U.S. states, the nation’s most populous state is preparing to take action. Next week, California voters will decide whether to approve a new congressional map that could result in five additional Democratic seats in the House of Representatives. Polls indicate that the measure, known as Prop. 50, will probably be adopted without problem.
The new map will temporarily replace a nonpartisan map that was developed by an independent commission, which Californians previously voted for. But in response to aggressive Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and other states, many Democrats here, including some commission members, now say the state must fight fire with fire.
It’s a turn of events that brings “no joy” to Sara Sadhwani. But the Democratic member of California’s independent redistricting commission says she believes her state must act to blunt the Republican Party’s takeover elsewhere. Democrats must take control of the House, she said, to stop President Donald Trump’s “violations of the U.S. Constitution.”
Why we wrote this
A dozen states are drawing new congressional district maps, or considering them, as Republicans and Democrats jockey for control of the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. The efforts could diminish the importance of individual voters.
Normally, congressional maps are redrawn every 10 years, based on new census data. But today, at least 12 states are drawing new maps or considering doing so. The movement began in August, when President Trump urged Texas Republicans to create a new map to try to give his party five additional seats in the House of Representatives – an attempt to blunt Democrats’ potential gains in the 2026 midterm elections. California’s new map is expected to reverse Texas’ gains.
The Texas Legislature simply created and adopted new districts. But California’s plan, which involves temporarily sidelining its independent redistricting commission, must be approved by voters on November 4.
With the GOP holding just a six-seat majority in the House, small gains for either party could have consequences. The Republicans, under the leadership of the White House, have already redrawn the maps of North Carolina, Missouri and Texas to try to obtain seven additional seats in the House in their column. Other red states, like Kansas, Indiana, Ohio and Utah, could soon follow suit. Democrats are looking for ways to potentially do the same in Virginia, Illinois, New York and Maryland.
Polls show that many Americans, in the abstract, oppose partisan gerrymandering and view it as antithetical to democracy. But support for drawing maps without considering partisan advantages collapses when the other side appears to be no longer playing fairly. “People generally think that when the other party has violated the norm, then you should respond in kind,” says Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University.
In early August, before Texas adopted its new map, just over a third of Californians said they supported the idea of redrawing their state’s congressional lines; a poll released Friday shows support is now at 60%. The runoff became one of the costliest races in state history, drawing national attention and funding. Democrats have so far raised more than $138 million, compared to $80 million for their opponents.
Professor Sadhwani’s views here reflect a broader sentiment that extreme partisanship is forcing poor choices on voters and reducing local power as elections are nationalized. The rapid increase in Californians’ support for Proposition 50 reflects the influence of national political forces and dollars fueling the nation’s partisan divide. And critics say it’s a vicious cycle.
“The more carved up the districts are, the less competitive the districts are, the less important individual voters are,” says Chad Peace, legal counsel for the Independent Voter Project, which advocates for nonpartisan election reform.
Local politics becomes national
The redistricting race illustrates a new maxim, says Professor Noël: all politics is no longer local. Because political power at the national level is directly tied to a state’s congressional maps, he says, “national politics is now simply inevitable at the state level.”
That’s true in California, where a recent poll shows that 75 percent of those planning to vote yes on Proposition 50 say they are doing so to oppose President Trump. In that same CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly two-thirds of voters, including Republicans, say they believe the president has treated deep-blue California worse than other states.
Democrats make up less than half (46%) of registered voters in California, while about a quarter (24%) are Republicans. The majority of remaining voters indicate no party preference. The current makeup of the state Congress already leans toward Democrats, who hold 43 of the state’s 52 seats in the House, plus both seats in the Senate. The Proposition 50 map tilts five additional districts Democratic.
Republican Rep. Vince Fong, who represents a central California district, calls the new map a “power grab.” Gov. Gavin Newsom, he says, is eliminating the voice of rural communities by adding them to urban districts — all in pursuit of his own political ambitions (Gov. Newsom has confirmed he will consider a White House run in 2028).
Ventura County GOP Chairman Richard Lucas said the views of conservatives like him are effectively silenced. Although he was born and raised in California, he says, he doesn’t feel welcomed by the state’s large Democratic majority — and Proposition 50 would only make things worse.
“Two wrongs don’t make a right,” he said.
If Proposition 50 passes, it will be even easier for blue states and red states to portray each other as “the enemy,” says Professor Noel. “And it’s harder to envision a presidential campaign that’s actually about reaching all 50 states, or a party that represents all 50 states.”
A Californian “remake”
California is one of eight states with independent commissions that draw congressional districts. In 2008, voters approved the Citizens Redistricting Commission by a narrow margin: 51% to 49%. Initially, the commission drew state legislative districts. Congressional districts were added two years later, when they also survived a repeal, with 60 percent voting to remain.
“Californians are constantly rethinking things,” says Professor Sadhwani, who teaches politics at Pomona College. They approved the commission the same year that President Barack Obama won a landslide victory by campaigning on a message of “hope,” she adds. “If in 2025 Californians aren’t as hopeful, they can reconsider how they want to engage nationally. »
The current voting proposal is tailored to the moment; it is explicitly tied to Texas redistricting and will expire with the 2030 census, when the independent commission regains its authority.
With these safeguards in place, “Prop. 50 is a reasonable measure that allows voters to both support independent redistricting and make the decision to stand up to this administration,” says California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks.
Representatives should consider their constituents first and their party second, says Mr. Peace of the Independent Voter Project. A conservative representative could even help the state work with Republican leaders, he adds. But some states are considered synonymous with their dominant political party, such as California with the Democrats and Texas with the Republicans.
“It’s a sad situation,” he said, “that we’ve sort of interchanged the two issues.”
A winner-takes-all system
The impact of gerrymandering on democracy can be corrosive, Peace says. With less competition, political parties become less responsive to voters, leading to lower turnout. “And actually, in the long run, that’s why people have less and less confidence in either party,” he says.
Experts suggest that structural reforms could resolve these problems. Multi-member districts, which would have multiple legislators representing a larger area, are a way to eliminate the problems inherent in redistricting and try to create “fair” maps, he said.
Yet the same two-party system that caused today’s division has supported cooperation in the past, with periods of bipartisan legislation, says Professor Sadwhani, who hopes the parties can once again find common ground.
“If no one likes this kind of redistricting and redistricting, let’s eliminate it as a nation,” she said. “And the way to do that would be to adopt independent redistricting commissions in all 50 states.”
According to Professor Noel, the independent maps constitute “the state of the art in government recommendations”. But it didn’t take long, he says, for the parties to realize that giving up control of the redistricting process has a cost nationally, “and what once seemed like a harmless idea is now an obstacle.”
Monitor Staff Writer Simon Montlake contributed reporting to this story from Bakersfield, California.
