Australia’s bushfires were held at bay by five wet years — but experts warn the country is ‘ready to burn’ | Bushfires

Australians should “expect the unexpected” this bushfire season in dangerous conditions, experts have warned, after a difficult start that saw a firefighter killed and homes destroyed in several states.

Bushfires at Koolewong and Bulahdelah in New South Wales destroyed 20 homes and a natural disaster was declared in several local government areas, while wind-driven fires at Dolphin Sands in eastern Tasmania razed 19 homes and damaged dozens more.

While battling the Bulahdelah fire, a veteran firefighter suffered cardiac arrest after being struck by a tree on Sunday evening and died at the scene, with NSW Premier Chris Minns describing it as a “worrying start” to the season.

This extreme start follows several years of wetter-than-average weather across much of the country and catastrophic flooding in some areas.

Last month, the Bureau of Meteorology said a La Niña was underway, but the wetter and cooler weather usually associated with this weather phenomenon may not occur this time due to factors such as global warming.

The start of December has already brought heat waves to several states. It follows a dry spring across much of southeast Australia due to the influence of a rare warming phenomenon – called sudden stratospheric warming – on Antarctica.

David Bowman, professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, said “the number one message is: expect the unexpected.”

In a world of increasing climate instability, he said people should “stop assuming seasonal forecasts, otherwise the authorities may have a crystal ball to tell you what February will be like.”

Instead, he said the “smartest thing” people could do was to prepare: have a bushfire survival plan and gain situational awareness, at home or while traveling.

Seasonal outlook

This year, long-term rainfall deficits in parts of Victoria and increased fuel loads in parts of NSW and Western Australia are creating an increased fire risk in southern Victoria, central-west NSW and the Yalgoo and Geraldton Sandplains regions of WA, according to the seasonal fire outlook from the National Fire and Emergency Services Council of Australia and New Zealand.

Soil moisture deficits also lead to an increased risk of bushfires in the northern parts of the Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, Esperance Plains and Mallee areas of WA.

Andrew Gissing, chief executive of National Hazards Research Australia, said the outlook was designed to show areas considered to be at increased risk. He added that this did not mean areas outside the red zones were not at risk.

“The arrival of summer is certainly a call for preparedness for all Australians living in bushfire-prone areas of South Australia,” he said.

Gissing said although fire seasons in South Australia had been more “toned down” after rains and floods in recent years, indicators were starting to change.

“Particularly with dry soils. We’re starting to see landscapes drying out, so we’ll see drier fuels ready to burn.”

Dry soils and more fuel ready to burn

Ben Millington, deputy commissioner of the New South Wales Rural Fire Service, said rainfall expected in the state until spring had not occurred after rare stratospheric warming over Antarctica “effectively pushed that rainfall towards northern Australia”.

He said precipitation throughout the winter and in recent years had contributed to higher fuel loads.

“And what we’re seeing now, with these hot temperatures and strong winds, is a trend towards rapid drying across New South Wales, particularly in the central-west areas of the state,” he said.

Greg Mullins, former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner and founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, said the underlying factor in the often unpredictable conditions people see was climate change – “because it makes everything unstable”.

Over the weekend, Mullins joined volunteers from his Terrey Hills branch of the RFS on the Central Coast, where the group was called to help cut rescue tracks in the national park near the suburb of Kariong.

“It’s extremely dry,” he said.

“The Keetch-Byram drought index is how you measure how dry the soil is and around Gosford it’s around 160. That’s extreme drought.”

Neither the NSW central coast nor the areas of Tasmania’s east coast that have burned over the past week have been identified as being at higher risk in the seasonal outlook, which Mullins says demonstrates the risk can occur anywhere under the right conditions.

“I would tell people after five rainy years, put your fire hat back on,” he said.

“If you live in a bushfire-prone area, now is the time to really think about what you are going to do to protect your family and your home. »