Bracketology Winners and Losers: How weak is the 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble? Just ask Texas and Auburn
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble is so small that teams struggling with prolonged late-season slumps are getting grace simply because others around the overall cut line are also losing. Concrete example: Texas.
The Longhorns suffered a Quad 2 loss to Ole Miss on Wednesday in the first round of the SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena, losing 76-66 to a Rebels team that fell to just 13-19. The Longhorns will enter selection Sunday with an 18-14 team that has lost five of its last six games.
But they are still alive and racing for a general offer.
After another day of carnage, the Longhorns will remain in CBS Sports Bracketology’s field of 68 for now, largely because no one has stepped up to take their place.
Texas entered the day ranked 44th in the all-important Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric and will be hurt after the loss. But WAB’s No. 46 (SMU), No. 47 (Indiana), No. 48 (Oklahoma State) and No. 49 (Cal) teams also lost Wednesday to provide some cushioning for the Longhorns’ latest slump.
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The lost Wednesday for the bubble teams followed a terrible Tuesday that saw Stanford and Virginia Tech lose in their first-round games of the ACC tournament and go from realistic consideration at large to territory that should be unpleasant to include.
Winner: Auburn survives another day
A 79-61 win over lowly Mississippi State didn’t exactly improve Auburn’s resume. But the victory kept the Tigers’ hopes alive, at a time when many others in their neighborhood were struggling. A Saturday showdown with No. 5 seed Tennessee in the second round of the SEC tournament will be huge for the Tigers, who slipped to last place in the field on CBS Sports Bracketology Wednesday night.
Loser: Texas case mitigated by former coach
Texas’ early exit from the SEC tournament came with the added sting of being dealt by former coach Chris Beard, who led the Longhorns to a sixth-place finish in the 2022 Big Dance in his only full season at the helm of the program. But in Beard, the Longhorns have a defender entering a nervous Selection Sunday.
“I think the resume speaks for itself in the SEC,” Beard said of the Longhorns, who own six Quad 1 wins. “I’m confident they could run a good NCAA Tournament. Sean (Miller) knows what he’s doing. He’s done it with several teams and I think they have some really good players. The NCAA Tournament, in my opinion, is all about matchups, and I think Texas has players that can take them to the second weekend.”
Winner: NC State is close to safety
NC State’s 98-88 victory over Pitt in the ACC Tournament was no thing of beauty, and it may have been all the Wolfpack needed to solidify themselves in the field of 68. Beating a bad Pitt team will provide little real boost to NC State’s resume. But it certainly beats the alternative at a time when others in the bubble are struggling. Would a victory against Virginia, seeded No. 2, in the quarterfinals on Thursday provide some assurance? Absolutely. But barring a wave of bid stealers and a sudden wave of surprises from the dwindling bubble contingent, Will Wade’s club should be dancing in his first season in charge.
Loser: Indiana makes a bad impression
Indiana entered the Big Ten tournament likely needing a run to the quarterfinals to attract serious at-large consideration. The Hoosiers came up short, losing 74-61 to Northwestern in their Big Ten tournament opener on Wednesday. IU heads into Selection Sunday at 18-14 with losses in six of its last seven games. The Hoosiers will have a negative WAB score and an unsavory 6-14 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opposition.
Winner: Iowa, a lock?
Whether Iowa achieved some lockout status with a 75-64 win over No. 17 seed Maryland on Wednesday could have been debated if a bunch of other bubble teams had won. But the Hawkeyes avoided the disaster that would have been losing to the 12-win Terrapins and likely secured their spot on the field. Beating Ohio State on Thursday would be great insurance, but the Hawkeyes probably don’t need it at this point after improving to 21-11.
Loser: Cal falls
Cal earned a brutal draw for the ACC tournament, as the No. 9 seed Bears opened against a hot Florida State team. The No. 8 seed Seminoles maintained their late-season progress with a 95-89 victory that likely ended Cal’s at-large aspirations. The Bears entered the day ranked 49th in WAB and trailing in other measures. They probably needed a win against FSU and an upset against No. 1 seed Duke on Thursday. But Cal won’t have any luck against the Blue Devils, and the Bears shouldn’t expect to see their name pop up on the screen Sunday.
Loser: SMU’s fate remains up for debate
SMU’s overall fate is up for debate following the Mustangs’ 62-58 loss to Louisville in the second round of the ACC tournament. The Mustangs head into Selection Sunday having lost five of their last six games and with an outcome-based metrics profile sitting in the mid-40s, which is right around the general cut line. With a total of nine wins in Quad 1 and Quad 2, this team certainly has a chance. But the next few days promise to be agonizing for a Mustangs program that seemed in great shape only a few weeks ago.
Winner: UCF wins security
UCF could have been safe either way. Now the Knights can exhale after rallying to a 66-65 overtime win over Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament. Regardless of what happens in Thursday’s quarterfinal game against No. 1 seed Arizona, UCF (21-10) should enter Selection Sunday with a pretty good resume. This team is behind in the NET rankings (No. 51 entering Wednesday’s action) but they sit comfortably in the top 40 in the WAB, which is more closely correlated with the selection. It would be a big surprise if the Knights didn’t dance.
Loser: Cincinnati’s dream dies
Cincinnati did its best to rally during the final month of the regular season, winning six of seven games at one point to reach the bubble discussion. But after falling 73-63 to TCU in Saturday’s regular-season finale and losing to UCF on Wednesday, the Bearcats’ dream of dancing died.
