Democrats aim to keep their 2025 election momentum going: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the political officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar previews tonight’s Miami mayoral election. Plus, Steve Kornacki analyzes a new poll that presents warning signs for Republicans about their standing with young voters.
Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.
—Adam Wollner
Miami has had Republican mayors for decades, but the position is up for grabs tonight
By Ben Kamisar
Miami voters are choosing their next mayor today as Democrats make their latest attempt to unseat a Republican-held office.
The city hasn’t had a Democratic mayor since the late 1990s, and dramatic shifts among Hispanic voters, particularly in South Florida, have melted Democrats’ advantage in recent elections.
But Kamala Harris narrowly won the city of Miami in the 2024 presidential race while losing Miami-Dade County. That means a Democratic flip is within reach for former County Commissioner Eileen Higgins, who is running against Republican Emilio T. González, a businessman and former city manager supported by President Donald Trump.
Both candidates present themselves as clean breaks from past municipal politics and promise to address affordability issues, which are of particular importance in South Florida, as they have been across the country.
Although the candidates’ proposed solutions to these problems may be local, the race has transformed into a national fight, as both parties struggle to gain political momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections. In Miami, that means a technically nonpartisan election with clearly partisan signs.
Higgins and González advanced to the runoff following a general primary in November, after no candidate won at least 50% of the vote. Higgins finished atop the 13 candidates with 36% of the vote to González’s 19%, and the top two Democratic candidates combined for the majority of the vote.
Democrats come into today’s elections energized by their relative outperformance in this year’s high-profile elections. That’s why the national party is stepping in to lend a helping hand, alongside a parade of Democratic politicians from across the country, including Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
But Republicans are fighting to maintain their hold on the mayor’s post, which they have held since 2009 (an independent was mayor from 2001 to 2009). Besides Trump, prominent Florida Republicans like Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott and Rep. María Elvira Salazar have sought to bolster González.
Learn more about Ben before the polls close at 7 p.m. ET →
After making inroads in 2024, Trump’s popularity has declined among young voters
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
President Donald Trump’s standing has declined over the course of 2025 with all voters — including a group with whom he made significant gains last year.
The new Yale Youth Poll finds that about two-thirds of voters under 35 now disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Young voters have long been a Democratic-friendly group, but in the 2024 election they have shifted to the right, with 42% of those under 30 supporting Trump, according to an average of exit polls and several major post-election studies. Kamala Harris won 56% of those voters. This 14-point gap is down from the 26-point advantage Joe Biden enjoyed over Trump in 2020 among those under 30. New data from Yale suggests those gains have been largely erased this year.
The poll also measured the 2026 congressional wild card runoff.
The deficits Republicans face with these under-35 subgroups – between 15 and 20 points – are not huge. But the problem for the Republican Party is that its overall support in the election almost perfectly parallels Trump’s approval rating. This could provide a ceiling for Republicans as currently undecided voters make up their minds.
Although these new numbers represent a clear decline for Trump and his party, the silver lining for the Republican Party is that its standing with young voters is even better than it was during Trump’s first term. In the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans were crushed among voters under 30 by 49 points, or 72% to 23%. This election produced a blue wave, with Democrats flipping 40 House seats and winning back the chamber.
At least for now, Trump and the Republican Party are not in the same territory with young voters.
🗞️ Other news of the day
- ⚖️SCOTUS Watch: Supreme Court justices examined the legality of longstanding campaign finance restrictions, challenged by Vice President JD Vance, that limit the amount that national party committees can spend in coordination with individual candidates. Read more →
- 🇻🇪 Interview with Trump: Trump said in an interview with Politico that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s “days are numbered” and declined to comment on whether the United States might send troops to the country. Read more →
- 💲ACA Combat: Senate Republicans say they will propose a bill as an alternative to billions of dollars in Affordable Care Act funds set to expire this month, sending premiums skyrocketing for millions of Americans. Read more →
- 🛬 Grounded: A new version of the annual defense policy bill could limit Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s travel plans next year if he doesn’t release video of recent military strikes. Read more →
- 📝The Epstein saga: A federal judge in New York has granted a Justice Department request to release grand jury documents related to Ghislaine Maxwell’s case. Read more →
- 🗺️ Results of redistricting: The group behind an effort to repeal Missouri’s new GOP-drawn congressional map has submitted nearly three times the number of signatures needed to force a referendum on that map. Read more →
- 🗳️ Mid-course corner: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said in an interview with a conservative podcast that Trump would “campaign like it’s 2024 again” for Republicans in next year’s election. In New York, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman entered the GOP gubernatorial primary against Rep. Elise Stefanik. And in Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello launched a bid for the district held by Republican Rep. John McGuire.
- ✉️ Return to sender: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Illinois Democratic Senate campaign sent emails purporting to come from Rep. Ted Lieu, Democrat of California. – but Lieu didn’t know that and didn’t support the race. Read more →
- 🎙️ Tonight: Trump delivers speech on economy in Pennsylvania. Follow live updates →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.
If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, share it with everyone. They can register here.
