Dodgers vs. Blue Jays World Series Game 6: Breaking down that wild ninth inning
The Los Angeles Dodgers forced a decisive Game 7 of the World Series with their 3-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 6 on Friday. The outcome was uncertain until the end of the match, due to a bizarre and tense end to the ninth.
To open the frame, Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk reached when an 0-2 splitter flew away from Dodgers relief ace Roki Sasaki and hit Kirk in the hand (x-rays were negative). The next man up, Addison Barger, then scalded a double against the wall in left center that probably would have scored the rushing Myles Straw, who was running for Kirk, if things were proceeding in a standard fashion. However, things did not go in a standard manner:
Barger’s ringer, immediately after landing, got stuck between the bottom of the wall and the warning track, making it a dead ball. Dodgers flycatchers Justin Dean and Kiké Hernández quickly pointed it out, and the umpires agreed, making it a double in the rules. That, in turn, meant that Straw was only allowed to advance by two goals, putting him in third place and likely taking a point away from Toronto. The decision was confirmed after review.
Despite some unlucky ball placement, the Jays were still in a strong position. Entering the top half of the ninth, the Jays, down two runs with three offensive outs remaining, had just an 8.9 percent chance of winning Game 6 and closing the series, based on base win expectancy. However, with runners on second and third and no outs, that number rose to 43%. It’s not quite a coin flip, but it’s close.
At that point, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts summoned Tyler Glasnow, his Game 3 starter, from the bullpen to make an appearance in the (very) high-leverage bullpen. Immediately, he retired Ernie Clement on a first-pitch foul. That brought No. 9 hitter Andrés Giménez to the plate. Glasnow threw him a 1-0 sinker on the outside edge, and Giménez put a decent shot on it. He lifted it to shallow left — 247 feet from home plate — and into the perilous dead zone where batted balls so often find grass between the outfielders and the infielders. In the case of Giménez’s batted ball, Statcast gave him an expected batting average of .710. In other words, the Jays had a seven-in-10 chance of tying the game or tying it 90 feet away with one out.
Before we roll the tape, here’s how two of this writer’s CBS Sports colleagues reacted in real time to what you’re about to see:
Expectations were exceeded:
On the left, Kiké Hernández said he “played a little more superficially than the [defensive positioning] card wanted me to do it” due to Barger’s speed at second base. Additionally, Hernández noted that Giménez had more power to shoot to the side, which in his very prescient thinking justified his decision to play more. The already improbable trap was even more improbable than you might think. Hernández also said this postgame on the show:
“Somehow I could hear the bat broke, even with that crowd. The crazy thing was, I had no idea where the ball was because it was in the lights the whole time.”
Perhaps Hernández’s capture should be promoted to miracle territory.
But it was only the second withdrawal. Back at second base, Barger, no doubt wanting to improve his chances of scoring on what he surely read as a single to left, rushed too far from the bag. This gave Hernández enough time to throw the ball to second. There, Miguel Rojas — in Roberts’ starting lineup for the first time since Game 2 of the NLDS on Oct. 6 — made an athletic pick that was probably as difficult as catching Hernández. Barger was down by inches, and once the replay was confirmed, Game 6 was over and Game 7 was a reality.
“I was pretty surprised he did it,” Barger said after the match. “Right off the bat, I thought it was going to go over the shortstop’s head. I didn’t think it would go that far. It was kind of a bad read.”
Those “coins” odds the Jays discussed earlier in the round? Within three throws to Glasnow, those chances were down to zero.
There are many unforgettable, intrigue-rich final innings in the annals of World Series history, and this one surely deserves a place among them. The Jays did all they could with those final three outs, but inches, percentage points, miscalculations and Dodger defense all conspired against a comeback.
