College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble Watch after Week 14
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With JMU’s inclusion at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate rankings — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being shut out of the playoffs entirely became real. Duke, which has lost five, is nowhere to be found in the rankings.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it is not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. That could open the door for two Group 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoffs were held today, it would be Tulane from the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The best team in the ACC, Miami, is still on the outside looking in.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need help, but Alabama increased its chances of clinching an SEC runner-up spot with a small promotion to No. 9. Conference championship games can still be a game-changer, but hope on the bubble is diminishing.
Bubble Watch reports on what we’ve learned from the committee so far – and the historical knowledge of what this means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in The statuses below look good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we have also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out we will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of applications they would receive, from most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Access a conference:
ACC | Large 12 | Big ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
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SECOND
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last overall team in the SEC in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a tough decision if Alabama loses and finishes second with three losses. The Tide would beat Georgia during the regular season, but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even moving up one spot to No. 9 this week – ahead of Notre Dame – it still seems like they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game plays out could matter. And how far Alabama falls could determine whether the SEC will have four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be left out of the playoffs to make room for a conference champion — as was the case last year.
A Georgia win should secure a first-round bye and a top-four spot for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round matchup. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs fall below the Rebels with a loss, even if the Bulldogs would have one more loss. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its record, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish among the committee’s top two teams with two losses.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly coach Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The biggest reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M’s loss to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win over Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them in the field past fifth. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were eliminated with losses in the title game, that probably wouldn’t be enough for Texas to take the field, as the group must make room for the conference champions.
Outs: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Indiana and Ohio State are both CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but they could find themselves behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if they win the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their run with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, likely hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M’s loss to Texas.
Still in the mix: none.
Outs: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and will have a strong case to make the playoffs regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would knock the Red Raiders out of the field as Big 12 runners-up with two losses — especially since they would pick up a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech could earn a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee placed them in the top four Tuesday night after Texas A&M’s Rivalry Week loss.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it is unlikely to earn an at-large bid as a conference runner-up, as the Cougars are already in the bubble and would be eliminated in the seeding process if the playoffs were held today. However, it is not impossible. If Alabama finishes second with three losses in the SEC, that could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost twice to Texas Tech, and Alabama would have beaten Georgia, the eventual SEC champion, once – and that was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it is the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoffs.
Outs: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: to be determined. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if Duke wins with five losses, it is possible that the ACC could be excluded from the playoffs since Duke is not in the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoffs, as the Cavaliers with two losses are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not face Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top playoff contender in the Group of 5 and will reach the postseason if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it already lost to Virginia 34-17 on November 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s top-ranked ACC team, but they would be left out if the playoffs today were to make room for a conference champion. That means the winner of the ACC could eliminate the league’s best team from the playoffs. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame, but it’s also not comparing the Canes solely to the Irish. Miami also needs to gain an advantage against BYU – which the committee has deemed better than Miami thus far. Miami moved closer to Notre Dame because Bama advanced on Tuesday, but with neither team in a conference championship game, would the committee topple them on Selection Day with a loss at BYU?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing so with consistent dominance regardless of their opponent. At No. 10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, it could eliminate the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, BYU and Texas Tech are very likely to make the playoffs, meaning someone currently in the top 10 should be left out.
Group of 5
Would be at: Tulane. If the Green Wave wins the American, it will represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs. Tulane is currently the top-ranked team in Group 5, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the team most likely to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the Conference USA this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane at USA, and if they win, they are more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs than JMU due to the strength of their schedule. However, JMU could still be considered if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams out of a 12-team field. With JMU gaining a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation has become more likely.
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Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the ranking would be:
First round exclusions
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champion)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
First round matches
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champion) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama to No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarter-final matches
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5th Oregon winner against #4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6th Ole Miss wins against No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7th Texas A&M wins over #2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8th Oklahoma winner against No. 1 Ohio State
